NET rankings

Since we have killed our NET with these 9/10+ point losses, it's time to start focusing on Q1 wins. That will be our trump card against other bubble teams.

Current Q1 wins (and how many spots they are within Q1 range):
VCU N- #36 (+14)- relatively safe
Marquette H- #26 (+4)- not safe
Georgetown A- #72 (+3)- not safe
Creighton A- #50 (+25)- LOCK
Marquette A- #26 (+49)- LOCK
Villanova H- #25 (+5)- not safe

Upcoming:
Xavier A- #70 (+5)- not safe

We currently have 6 Q1 wins, but a couple could become Q2.

On another note, our RPI is #41-#46 (different services calculate our Barclays games as neutral/home), while our NET is #61. RPI of course doesn't take margins into account while NET does. Bad year for NET to take effect, because generally we have won in squeakers (3-0 in OT) and lost by 10 points.
 
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Bubble teams playing tonight:

Syracuse- lost- still safely in
Texas- losing- with a loss would be 8-10 in conference and 16-14 overall
TCU- losing- with a loss would be 6-11 (!!!) in conference

On Bracket Matrix:
Syracuse- 8 seed
Texas- 10 seed
TCU- 11 seed

St. John's- 10 seed
 
Look at the bright side. If things dont improve quickly in the interest of recycling you can just substitute 1 letter in the thread title and replace the NET with NIT
 
[quote="Adam" post=327776]Bubble teams playing tonight:

Syracuse- lost- still safely in
Texas- losing- with a loss would be 8-10 in conference and 16-14 overall
TCU- losing- with a loss would be 6-11 (!!!) in conference

On Bracket Matrix:
Syracuse- 8 seed
Texas- 10 seed
TCU- 11 seed

St. John's- 10 seed[/quote]

This is honestly the worst bubble I can remember from since I've been following. You've got teams like TCU and Oklahoma who are 6-10 in conference, and listed as 8 and 9 seeds. You've got a team like Indiana who is 6-12 in conference listed as one of the last 4 in.

I believe it's due to their being more parity than ever in the game. Sure it's still top heavy with blue bloods, but you don't have punching bags like years past.
 
This year, Bracket Matrix has the following teams as first 8 out (just updated again a few minutes ago- we're an 11 seed now and 8 spots before the bubble bursts):

Seton Hall- 16-12 / 7-9
Murray St- who?
Indiana- 15-14 / 6-12
Creighton- 16-13 / 7-9
St. Mary's- who have they beat?
Furman- they beat Nova... and....?
Georgetown- 18-11 / 8-8
UNC-G- who?

Last year:
USC
St. Mary's
Louisville
Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma St
Marquette
Notre Dame
Baylor

Seriously, the bubble this year may just be the worst in history.

On that same note, all the bubble teams got blown out tonight.
 
Murray St. has a top 3-5 NBA pick in Ja Morant. Would like to see them in to see how he performs. They have had a pretty good program over the years BTW.
 
Someone please explain how Texas is in so many brackets comfortably. Big wins over UNC and Kansas but come on.
 
This is what I'd say to those feeling discouraged after this weekend (aka everybody)- just try to enjoy the next couple weeks no matter what happens. Worst case scenario (0-2), we'd still have a legitimate shot on Selection Sunday even though we'd have no business dancing. Yes, I was pissed after the Xavier/DePaul games because we blew two chances to clinch a spot, but end of the day we love sports for their uncertainly and there is a LOT of it this year.

Two major story lines leading up to Saturday's game:
1. The Big East has 5- yes 5- bubble teams. Us, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Creighton & Xavier. This week and the Big East Tournament are going to be incredibly exciting with so much uncertainty. The last few years have been boring with every team either safely in or definitely out heading into Selection Sunday.
2. Can the bubble become bad enough that we'd sneak into the Tournament at 8-10 / 0-1? Like it or not we need to start thinking about that possibility, and with 5 days until our next game we might as well root against the rest of the field. Will the bubble keep imploding? Will there be any bid thieves from conference tournaments? We'll know a lot more before Saturday.

Let's try to not overthink what happens after this year in regards to Mullin/Ponds/Heron/etc. Instead let's enjoy watching every other bubble team suffer, and then hope for a good result Saturday. If we somehow don't make it then we'd officially earn the badge of "most screwed fan base". I'm sure a lot of people here would love that (even if they don't admit it).
 
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[quote="Adam" post=327793]This is what I'd say to those feeling discouraged after this weekend (aka everybody)- just try to enjoy the next couple weeks no matter what happens. Worst case scenario (0-2), we'd still have a legitimate shot on Selection Sunday even though we'd have no business dancing. Yes, I was pissed after the Xavier/DePaul games because we blew two chances to clinch a spot, but end of the day we love sports for their uncertainly and there is a LOT of it this year.

Two major story lines leading up to Saturday's game:
1. The Big East has 5- yes 5- bubble teams. Us, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Creighton & Xavier. This week and the Big East Tournament are going to be incredibly exciting with so much uncertainty. The last few years have been boring with every team either safely in or definitely out heading into Selection Sunday.
2. Can the bubble become bad enough that we'd sneak into the Tournament at 8-10 / 0-1? Like it or not we need to start thinking about that possibility, and with 5 days until our next game we might as well root against the rest of the field. Will the bubble keep imploding? Will there be any bid thieves from conference tournaments? We'll know a lot more before Saturday.

Let's try to not overthink what happens after this year in regards to Mullin/Ponds/Heron/etc. Instead let's enjoy watching every other bubble team suffer, and then hope for a good result Saturday. If we somehow don't make it then we'd officially earn the badge of "most screwed fan base". I'm sure a lot of people here would love that (even if they don't admit it).[/quote]

Phenomenal post, Adam, except for the last line!
Never been a masochist. If we blow this, being ‘celebrated’ for it would likely spike my BP!
Lol.
Somehow, let’s get a minor miracle by winning a few...in a row.
Double Lol.
 
[quote="Adam" post=327788]This year, Bracket Matrix has the following teams as first 8 out (just updated again a few minutes ago- we're an 11 seed now and 8 spots before the bubble bursts):

Seton Hall- 16-12 / 7-9
Murray St- who?
Indiana- 15-14 / 6-12
Creighton- 16-13 / 7-9
St. Mary's- who have they beat?
Furman- they beat Nova... and....?
Georgetown- 18-11 / 8-8
UNC-G- who?

Last year:
USC
St. Mary's
Louisville
Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma St
Marquette
Notre Dame
Baylor

Seriously, the bubble this year may just be the worst in history.

On that same note, all the bubble teams got blown out tonight.[/quote]

Admittedly I don't follow college BB as closely as I used to, but I think the top 4 is about as unimpressive as I can remember. I would not be surprised to see 3 of them lose in the sweet 16. (The smarter pundits on the board can call me an idiot if they wish.)
 
Damn 6-12 teams getting in? Is that what the tournament will look like with this whole NET ranking or is it just this year? Rewarding mediocrity is crazy to me. If thats the case just go back to the RPI at least actually winning games was important.
 
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In regards to our NET dropping to #61, which is certainly a lot worse than it should be at 8-9...

It's funny how all these articles keep popping up about how our "weak" OOC is holding us back, when in reality it's the main thing keeping us alive. The issue is our Big East performance has tanked our NET, which I'll get to in a second.

We could've had a much tougher OOC, but then we likely would've lost a few games as well. Aside from Nova and Marquette we are the only Big East team projected "in" despite being 8-9 in conference. Our record is worse than both Georgetown and Xavier (.500), but neither of them are anywhere close to the right side of the bubble. Seton Hall is 7-9 and also on the wrong side of the bubble despite beating teams like Maryland and Kentucky OOC. Creighton is also 7-9 and they're nowhere near the right side of the bubble.

Fact is our NET at 12-0 was around #25, and now it has ballooned to #61 during conference play. That's because:
A. We have a losing BE record- we have to actually win games like we did OOC or at least go .500
B. We are getting blown out in losses and winning in squeakers. Here is how NET caps our wins/losses:
@ SHU L -2
Vs Marq W +10 (caps at 10)
@ GTown W +1 (OT caps at 1)
@ Nova L -5
Vs DePaul L -8
Vs Creighton W +10
@ Butler L -9
Vs GTown L -10
@ Creighton W +10
@ Marq W +1
Vs Prov L -10
Vs Butler W +1 (OT)
Vs Nova W +6
@ Prov L -10
Vs SHU W +8
Vs Xavier L -10
@ DePaul L -9

W: +47
L: -73
Overall: -26 - we should be about 20 points better than that at 8-9

C. Getting blown out at home against mediocre competition destroys NET dis-proportionally to getting blown out on the road. For example, we dropped 10 spots after our loss to Xavier. We have been AWFUL at home against mediocre competition.

As mentioned, our RPI (which doesn't take margin into account) is in the low 40s while our NET is #61. There are only two things keeping us alive:
1. Our OOC performance and NET
2. Our Q1 wins

Just wish journalists would get this right, since most of them keep reiterating the same talking points.
 
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[quote="Adam" post=327892]In regards to our NET dropping to #61, which is certainly a lot worse than it should be at 8-9...

It's funny how all these articles keep popping up about how our "weak" OOC is holding us back, when in reality it's the main thing keeping us alive. The issue is our Big East performance has tanked our NET, which I'll get to in a second.

We could've had a much tougher OOC, but then we likely would've lost a few games as well. Aside from Nova and Marquette we are the only Big East team projected "in" despite being 8-9 in conference. Our record is worse than both Georgetown and Xavier (.500), but neither of them are anywhere close to the right side of the bubble. Seton Hall is 7-9 and also on the wrong side of the bubble despite beating teams like Maryland and Kentucky OOC. Creighton is also 7-9 and they're nowhere near the right side of the bubble.

Fact is our NET at 12-0 was around #25, and now it has ballooned to #61 during conference play. That's because:
A. We have a losing BE record- we have to actually win games like we did OOC or at least go .500
B. We are getting blown out in losses and winning in squeakers. Here is how NET caps our wins/losses:
@ SHU L -2
Vs Marq W +10 (caps at 10)
@ GTown W +1 (OT caps at 1)
@ Nova L -5
Vs DePaul L -8
Vs Creighton W +10
@ Butler L -9
Vs GTown L -10
@ Creighton W +10
@ Marq W +1
Vs Prov L -10
Vs Butler W +1 (OT)
Vs Nova W +6
@ Prov L -10
Vs SHU W +8
Vs Xavier L -10
@ DePaul L -9

W: +47
L: -73
Overall: -26 - we should be about 20 points better than that at 8-9

C. Getting blown out at home against mediocre competition destroys NET dis-proportionally to getting blown out on the road. For example, we dropped 10 spots after our loss to Xavier. We have been AWFUL at home against mediocre competition.

As mentioned, our RPI (which doesn't take margin into account) is in the low 40s while our NET is #61. There are only two things keeping us alive:
1. Our OOC performance and NET
2. Our Q1 wins

Just wish journalists would get this right, since most of them keep reiterating the same talking points.[/quote]

Getting it right would mean they have to admit they were wrong as it was the big narrative while the OOC was going on and even before then. Narrative rules reality these days. It's too bad.
 
[quote="Dan V" post=327812]Damn 6-12 teams getting in? Is that what the tournament will look like with this whole NET ranking or is it just this year? Rewarding mediocrity is crazy to me. If thats the case just go back to the RPI at least actually winning games was important.[/quote] I think it's been posted here that our rpi is actually better then our net, fwiw.
 
BUBBLE teams in action today:

XAVIER @ Butler
VCU @ George Mason (root for VCU anyways)
Purdue @ MINNESOTA
Kentucky @ OLE MISS
Kansas @ OKLAHOMA
AUBURN @ ALABAMA
 
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[quote="Adam" post=327903]BUBBLE teams in action today:

XAVIER @ Butler
VCU @ George Mason (root for VCU anyways)
Purdue @ MINNESOTA
Kentucky @ OLE MISS
Kansas @ OKLAHOMA
AUBURN @ ALABAMA[/quote]

Minnesota and Oklahoma had big wins. Everyone else lost besides VCU which isn't bad for us.
 
[quote="Adam" post=327892]In regards to our NET dropping to #61, which is certainly a lot worse than it should be at 8-9...

It's funny how all these articles keep popping up about how our "weak" OOC is holding us back, when in reality it's the main thing keeping us alive. The issue is our Big East performance has tanked our NET, which I'll get to in a second.

We could've had a much tougher OOC, but then we likely would've lost a few games as well. Aside from Nova and Marquette we are the only Big East team projected "in" despite being 8-9 in conference. Our record is worse than both Georgetown and Xavier (.500), but neither of them are anywhere close to the right side of the bubble. Seton Hall is 7-9 and also on the wrong side of the bubble despite beating teams like Maryland and Kentucky OOC. Creighton is also 7-9 and they're nowhere near the right side of the bubble.

Fact is our NET at 12-0 was around #25, and now it has ballooned to #61 during conference play. That's because:
A. We have a losing BE record- we have to actually win games like we did OOC or at least go .500
B. We are getting blown out in losses and winning in squeakers. Here is how NET caps our wins/losses:
@ SHU L -2
Vs Marq W +10 (caps at 10)
@ GTown W +1 (OT caps at 1)
@ Nova L -5
Vs DePaul L -8
Vs Creighton W +10
@ Butler L -9
Vs GTown L -10
@ Creighton W +10
@ Marq W +1
Vs Prov L -10
Vs Butler W +1 (OT)
Vs Nova W +6
@ Prov L -10
Vs SHU W +8
Vs Xavier L -10
@ DePaul L -9

W: +47
L: -73
Overall: -26 - we should be about 20 points better than that at 8-9

C. Getting blown out at home against mediocre competition destroys NET dis-proportionally to getting blown out on the road. For example, we dropped 10 spots after our loss to Xavier. We have been AWFUL at home against mediocre competition.

As mentioned, our RPI (which doesn't take margin into account) is in the low 40s while our NET is #61. There are only two things keeping us alive:
1. Our OOC performance and NET
2. Our Q1 wins

Just wish journalists would get this right, since most of them keep reiterating the same talking points.[/quote]

great post adam
 
Yesterday was just an "okay" day for the bubble.

On Bracket Matrix we are currently the first #11 seed (in the field by 8 spots).

BUBBLE games tonight:
Marquette @ SETON HALL
lsu @ FLORIDA
Providence @ CREIGHTON
GEORGETOWN @ DePaul
OHIO ST @ Northwestern
CLEMSON @ Notre Dame
Georgia Tech @ NC STATE
Oregon St @ WASHINGTON
 
Braziller;
One thing to keep in mind for St. John's NCAA Tournament hopes. No high major was left out of the dance last year with a .500 or better record against Q 1 and 2 opponents. #sjubb record is 10-8.
 
BUBBLE games tonight:
Marquette @ SETON HALL - SETON HALL won
lsu @ FLORIDA - FLORIDA lost (in OT!)
Providence @ CREIGHTON - CREIGHTON won
GEORGETOWN @ DePaul - GEORGETOWN lost
OHIO ST @ Northwestern - OHIO ST lost
CLEMSON @ Notre Dame - CLEMSON won
Georgia Tech @ NC STATE - NC STATE lost
Oregon St @ WASHINGTON - WASHINGTON won

Overall, bubble teams went 4-4. Not bad, especially considering 2 of those bubble winners were fellow Big East members.

I actually think nearly all those bubble teams were favored to win, so a pretty good night.
 
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