NET rankings

[quote="Mike Zaun" post=326597][quote="SJU61982" post=326593][quote="bamafan" post=326592][quote="SJU61982" post=326587]Palm still has us as an 8, as of this morning.

Clearly, because of the injuries, he is not docking us.[/quote]
How exactly does this work? So if Team A is missing one player and Team B is missing 5, Team A still gets a break because they were missing a player? Yes we were down a man last night but X was missing 2 of their players. Think this whole concept is bullshit. You play the hand you are dealt. Everybody gets a trophy mentally. Recruit some depth. Injuries are part of the game. Let's just let computers figure out who wins the games.[/quote]

Well, one of the guys for Xavier has been out since right around the time they started winning. I don't know how you judge that. He has not been with the team for what is being called personal reasons, so maybe he was a problem. That might be unfair to him, but the correlation does make you at least have to wonder.

The other guy was suspended. IMO, if they would have lost, they should not have been cut any slack, for that reason, because that's different then Heron being out with an "injury" (especially if Heron comes back strong). However, I do not have any say in the matter.[/quote][/quote]

This is the second time you've hinted that it's not an injury, Zaun.

If you have some info come out and say it. I'm tired of this speculation (not just from you) every time one of our guys sits out. It's almost like, because Lovett jumped ship, it automatically has to be the case with everybody else.

There were people watching him on the bench last night, who said he had trouble walking. I didn't notice anything, but I was not paying attention to that.
 
[quote="ron " post=326577][quote="Room112" post=326552][quote="SJU61982" post=326549]Not good.

https://twitter.com/NYPost_Brazille/status/1101508181937790977[/quote]

The NET is an extremely flawed system to me. 9 spots ahead of us at #50 is Penn State, who is 12-16 and 5-12 in conference. How does that make sense.[/quote]

Probably because the Big 10 is a much stronger conference.[/quote]

That's not how it works. For example they are #81 in RPI
 
With a potential loss at Xavier, I don't think we make the Dance. The committee doesn't like to reward poor finishes and our rankings aren't good enough to force them to put us in. We really need that final game of the season.

Even if we beat X, we might need another win in the BET. A handful of teams with losing records in conference will probably get in this year, but there will be a lot of teams grouped near us in terms of rankings and resume. I don't think anybody will give us the benefit of the doubt. We're not Alabama, Arizona State, or Syracuse. Our name isn't getting us in. And nobody's going to consider the Seton Hall debacle or a few injury-affected losses.

I would love to see us sneak is as like an 11 seed. Sure we've been beaten up in a few BE games recently, but if we roll the dice and maybe get a favorable matchup, we could give a good team a run for their money.
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=327450]No. Let’s call it what it is. We beat Xavier on the road we are in. We lose and who knows[/quote]

If we lose the best we deserve is last 4 in. And I don't want to hear anyone complain about that because it would be extremely lucky on our part.
 
How the hell are we in at 8-10 in a relatively weak conference this year. Let’s face it, this team choked away their bid. They have to beat Xavier and win at least one game in the BET or get ready for the NIT
 
[quote="thetux1" post=327455]How the hell are we in at 8-10 in a relatively weak conference this year. Let’s face it, this team choked away their bid. They have to beat Xavier and win at least one game in the BET or get ready for the NIT[/quote]


This isn’t accurate.

We need one win. At least two of our losses will be mitigated by Ponds and Heron being out. The committee chairman already addressed that exact topic speaking generally. I don’t think we will get selected if we go 0-4 to finish and honestly don’t think it would be deserved.
 
To me, it's very simple. If we beat Xavier we will likely finish third or at worst fourth in BE and will get into NCAA. If we lose and finish 8-10, we don't deserve to get in unless we run the table in BET.
 
[quote="L J S A" post=324560]I know we were firmly in after the Villanova game, but how many performances like this will committee be willing to stomach? Among other things, they are tasked with putting on a good show. If we no-show two more times, are we back on wrong side of things?[/quote]

bump
 
[quote="L J S A" post=327494][quote="L J S A" post=324560]I know we were firmly in after the Villanova game, but how many performances like this will committee be willing to stomach? Among other things, they are tasked with putting on a good show. If we no-show two more times, are we back on wrong side of things?[/quote]

bump[/quote]

The biggest factor is ending the season 0-4. A team that ends in that big of a slump does not belong in the tournament IMO. The spot should go to a team clawing their way in.
 
[quote="Marillac" post=327498]

The biggest factor is ending the season 0-4. A team that ends in that big of a slump does not belong in the tournament IMO. The spot should go to a team clawing their way in.[/quote]

That's the thing: We want to at the very least look like we are trending sideways. But that's tough because Xavier is always a tough matchup for us. If we go 0-2 in these next two games, I think we go 0-3, because these kids won't want to be in the NIT. I think it would be an ugly no-show even though we'd have the ability to win that tournament.
 
I think 9-9 will get us in but they should win at least 1 BET game just for insurance; ive seen better teams get snubbed in the past. Granted there is the NET now but still. If we go 8-10 I think we need 2 wins in the BET to get in. One game better than year 2 when we finished 7-11, let that sink in. Tournament or not thats not good.
 
[quote="Dan V" post=327502]I think 9-9 will get us in but they should win at least 1 BET game just for insurance; ive seen better teams get snubbed in the past. Granted there is the NET now but still. If we go 8-10 I think we need 2 wins in the BET to get in. One game better than year 2 when we finished 7-11, let that sink in. Tournament or not thats not good.[/quote]

I think a hard-charging Xavier could steal our spot if we don't win. A double-digit win would help too. We have six days to get straight physically and mentally.

We really have to root hard for Butler when they play Tuesday.
 
[quote="Adam" post=325326]We have 3 regular season games remaining.

Our odds of winning, according to ESPN:
Vs Xavier: 79%
@ DePaul: 56%
@ Xavier: 49%

Odds of winning at least one more regular season game and finishing 9-9 (or better): 95.3%
Odds of winning at least one more game (including BET- I'll give 50% odds for our game): 97.6%

So, basically I think our NCAA Tournament odds are at around 98% right now. This week was HUGE in putting us in a strong position. We were underdogs to both Nova and Providence, and for Seton Hall we were only favored by a couple points with Heron out. Oh yeah, and the Butler OT win last week was also critical. Massive 4 game stretch.

10-8 / 2-1 would be awesome, but I'd be satisfied with 1-2 / 9-9 too. We've just won 3/4 so I won't get too greedy. I've said in the past that my expectation is to make the NCAAT (excluding Dayton), and that certainly looks very likely at this point. :)[/quote]

Quoting my post from last week. We had 95% odds to win one of our final 3 regular season games, and now our odds of getting to 9-9 are below 50%. Unbelievable.
 
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[quote="L J S A" post=327501][quote="Marillac" post=327498]

The biggest factor is ending the season 0-4. A team that ends in that big of a slump does not belong in the tournament IMO. The spot should go to a team clawing their way in.[/quote]

That's the thing: We want to at the very least look like we are trending sideways. But that's tough because Xavier is always a tough matchup for us. If we go 0-2 in these next two games, I think we go 0-3, because these kids won't want to be in the NIT. I think it would be an ugly no-show even though we'd have the ability to win that tournament.[/quote]

Lot of bad times on the bubble. For crying out loud they are putting Indiana who actually lost 11 out of 12 at one point in conference and the 1 win was in OT against Michigan St (granted good team). But now with another win over Mich St and Iowa they are considered bubble again.

But again even if they slip in this is not what any reasonable person should have expected in year 4 of this hire. We should have expected a lot more. And as you and others have said, if things break as we expect. next year is going to be worse.
 
Personally, after seeing every team in the conference more than once, I think we are the worst team in the BE. We don't necessarily have the worst players, but I think we are the worst team.

At the same time we are also an above average Div. 1 team and often a lot of fun to watch. If we had more realistic expectations, these losses wouldn't be so hard to take. St. John's hasn't been a draw for top players since the 90s because of the campus layout, the location, and the outdated facilities. We also don't have an experienced coach who's calling in life was coaching basketball.

Despite being a bad BE team and more deserving of the underdog role, we still might actually sneak into the NCAA tournament. And that would be a lot of fun!
 
We’ll know all we need about this season in two weeks so it does no good speculating.

Next year could be better under several scenarios.
 
Our NET dropped to #62. We can't keep losing to bad teams by 9/10 points. We were #49 before the Xavier game. NET absolutely hammers teams for getting blown out at home (10 points) against mediocre competition.

That said, on Bracket Matrix we are still a 10 seed. I'm not sure how many brackets have been updated with yesterday's result, so we'll need to wait a few days.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Also of note, the first 4/8 out are AWFUL. Seriously, Murray St, Creighton, Indiana, UNCG, Furman, St. Mary's and Toledo? This bubble sucks.
 
Not only is the bubble super weak this year, there is also a BIG drop-off from the teams around the 10/11/12 lines (like St. John's) to the teams on the wrong side of the bubble. I can't ever remember such a bad group of first 4/8 teams out.

Of course, that has potential to change if there are bid thieves. The Big East for example is one conference that could certainly have a bid thief. It's going to be a pretty wild last couple weeks.
 
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