[quote="Adam" post=328221]Here is why I think most likely St. John's is already in, even if we lose out:
Currently we're the first #11 seed on Bracket Matrix, however that hasn't been updated today. As Room noted, 3 of the #10 seeds directly ahead of us lost last night (and to mostly mediocre competition).
As the first #11 seed, we are in the field by 8 spots (4 spots for #11 seeds, 4 spots for #12 seeds). Also factor in that we should pass 2-3 teams by the next update (due to last night's results), and we are in the field by 10 spots.
Now, let's assume we lose at Xavier. That is a Q1 game and therefore wouldn't drop us too much. Let's say we'd drop by 4 spots. We'd then be in the field by 6 spots still.
After losing first round of the BET, we'd also drop a few spots. The thing is, everyone else on the bubble is going to lose at some point during their conference tournaments too. Probably half of them will lose during the first round like us. After the conference tournaments are done, would we drop another 6+ spots? I just don't see it.
That said, a lot of things can happen. Maybe the Committee thinks our 4 game losing streak is enough to keep us out. Maybe they don't value us as highly as Bracket Matrix does. Maybe a few of our Q1 wins become Q2. Maybe a team other than Gonzaga or Buffalo win their conference tournaments. Maybe other bubble teams start winning. Etc, etc.
All that said, I still think most likely we make it even if we lose out. I just hope we can win another game and don't need to go through these insane scenarios lol.[/quote]
I appreciate your iterative efforts in gauging our chances and seed positions Adam, really do.
I just hope we can garner up enough grit to win 1-2 games before the Dance, so that we don’t limp in and get a lousy 1st game matchup and lose 1st round.
To me, the sour taste of that would last most of the off-season, especially when compounded by possible recruiting disappointments in the Spring.
