NET rankings

We should beat Xavier on paper...we have an 80% chance to win according to ESPN. But we all know how inconsistent we are. Wouldn't shock me if we lost the next 2 and won the finale at Xavier. Opposite of logic for some reason seems to be the thing. One more win and it should be official...still very nervous about the BET and NCAA's though, because we haven't shown the ability to get red hot and play at a high level really 2-3+ games in a row. We should make a run in the BET, but also won't be shocked if we lost immediately. Our record in tournaments has not been good at all since 2011 at least. That goes for NCAA, NIT, in season tournaments (until this yr), BET, etc. Hopefully things change quickly!
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=325551]We should beat Xavier on paper...we have an 80% chance to win according to ESPN. But we all know how inconsistent we are. Wouldn't shock me if we lost the next 2 and won the finale at Xavier. Opposite of logic for some reason seems to be the thing. One more win and it should be official...still very nervous about the BET and NCAA's though, because we haven't shown the ability to get red hot and play at a high level really 2-3+ games in a row. We should make a run in the BET, but also won't be shocked if we lost immediately. Our record in tournaments has not been good at all since 2011 at least. That goes for NCAA, NIT, in season tournaments (until this yr), BET, etc. Hopefully things change quickly![/quote]

Down to 78% today, FWIW. A little bump to Xavier for yesterday's game, obviously. You'd think they'd get more for beating Nova, but Nova has not been good lately. I still think that yesterday was more about them, then about X (though they have improved, obviously).
 
Also of note, Villanova is dropping in the NET and getting close to no longer being a Quad 1 win for us. Need them to keep winning.
 
Yeah Nova just dropped one spot to #28. Under NET, teams hardly drop after losing away games (even in blowouts). For us, that works nicely since 2/3 of our remaining regular season games are away.

That said, I agree Thursday is extremely important as it's the easiest game we have remaining. Let's win that and focus entirely on seeding for the remainder of the year.
 
[quote="Adam" post=325570]Yeah Nova just dropped one spot to #28. Under NET, teams hardly drop after losing away games (even in blowouts). For us, that works nicely since 2/3 of our remaining regular season games are away.

That said, I agree Thursday is extremely important as it's the easiest game we have remaining. Let's win that and focus entirely on seeding for the remainder of the year.[/quote]

But, Nova has to stay in the top 30 for that to be considered a Quad 1 win, since it was a home game. So, yes, it's very much in the balance. It would help if they could beat Marquette on Wednesday (since Marquette is in no danger of falling out of Quad 1).
 
Potential outcomes and where I think we'd stand:

8-10 BE 0-1 BET: 67% odds to make NCAA- likely in Dayton
8-10 BE 1-1 BET: 95% odds to make NCAA- possibly in Dayton
9-9 BE 0-1 BET- 99% odds to make NCAA- not in Dayton
9-9 BE 1-1 BET- 100% odds to make NCAA- not in Dayton

IMO most likely we are already in (first outcome above) based on how many Q1 wins we have and our projected seeding. I don't believe any bubble teams come close to our high quality wins. Of course, still work to be done as we don't want to end up in Dayton. Goes without saying that we need to shoot for the best seeding possible.

Once we get closer to the NCAAT, I'll update with seed predictions.
 
[quote="SJU61982" post=325571][quote="Adam" post=325570]Yeah Nova just dropped one spot to #28. Under NET, teams hardly drop after losing away games (even in blowouts). For us, that works nicely since 2/3 of our remaining regular season games are away.

That said, I agree Thursday is extremely important as it's the easiest game we have remaining. Let's win that and focus entirely on seeding for the remainder of the year.[/quote]

But, Nova has to stay in the top 30 for that to be considered a Quad 1 win, since it was a home game. So, yes, it's very much in the balance. It would help if they could beat Marquette on Wednesday (since Marquette is in no danger of falling out of Quad 1).[/quote]

Of course, I wasn't implying to the contrary. We all knew Nova was going to drop after yesterday, the question was how much. Only dropping 1 spot is a best case scenario since a lot of people expected them to drop to Q2 (31+) today. That said, they need to pick it up if they're going to remain a Q1 win on Selection Sunday.
 
[quote="Adam" post=325574][quote="SJU61982" post=325571][quote="Adam" post=325570]Yeah Nova just dropped one spot to #28. Under NET, teams hardly drop after losing away games (even in blowouts). For us, that works nicely since 2/3 of our remaining regular season games are away.

That said, I agree Thursday is extremely important as it's the easiest game we have remaining. Let's win that and focus entirely on seeding for the remainder of the year.[/quote]

But, Nova has to stay in the top 30 for that to be considered a Quad 1 win, since it was a home game. So, yes, it's very much in the balance. It would help if they could beat Marquette on Wednesday (since Marquette is in no danger of falling out of Quad 1).[/quote]

Of course, I wasn't implying to the contrary. We all knew Nova was going to drop after yesterday, the question was how much. Only dropping 1 spot is a best case scenario since a lot of people expected them to drop to Q2 (31+) today. That said, they need to pick it up if they're going to remain a Q1 win on Selection Sunday.[/quote]

Villanova, to me, is about where most of us expected them to be at this point. They just got off to a super hot start in the league (largely due to intimidation, and winning culture). A home game against a great team could be just the tonic needed, to jolt them up a bit.

The same with Xavier, just in the opposite direction. We knew they were down from previous years, but we were all shaking our heads when they were 3-8. Now, they are just about in line with preseason expectations. Hopefully, they have a setback on Thursday.
 
Question for Adam who seems to be the most into this stuff and I basically ignore it-you mention quality wins all the time Quad 1 etc. but are bad losses and overall body of work factors and to what degree compared to quality wins?
 
[quote="bamafan" post=325633]Question for Adam who seems to be the most into this stuff and I basically ignore it-you mention quality wins all the time Quad 1 etc. but are bad losses and overall body of work factors and to what degree compared to quality wins?[/quote]

Bad losses negate Quad 1 wins to a degree.

According the comitttee chairman (speaking generally about teams losing without key players and then winning upon their return) our losses to DePaul and Providence at home won’t be held against us because Ponds and Heron bounced back the next game and we played markedly better.
 
[quote="bamafan" post=325633]Question for Adam who seems to be the most into this stuff and I basically ignore it-you mention quality wins all the time Quad 1 etc. but are bad losses and overall body of work factors and to what degree compared to quality wins?[/quote]

Since I believe nearly all of our losses are to top 100/Q1/Q2/Q3 teams (rather than Q4), they aren't really that bad. In general though, yes Q1 wins are more important.

For example, let's take our games vs Georgetown. With a top 75 NET, they are currently a Q1 game on the road (and either Q2/Q3 at home). We of course beat them on the road, but lost to them at home. Obviously we wanted to win both, but if we could only win one then I'd definitely take the road Q1 opportunity.

Whenever analysts discuss this stuff, Q1 is typically the first thing brought up after NET/record. Everything is a factor in seeding (you mentioned several examples), but Q1 wins factor in pretty heavily.
 
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For us right now these seeds mean nothing except we most likely are in the tourney at this point barring losing our last 3. Show me our seed after we finish out the season the way our "good" version of our team is capable of. We wouldn't be a 9 seed. More likely a 5-6 seed. Now if we finish 2-1 and win 0- 1 game in the big east tourney then maybe we warrant only a 9 seed.
 
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[quote="SJU61982" post=325704][quote="fordham96" post=325692]Joey Brackets has SJU as a 9 like Jerry Palm does playing Wofford:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology[/quote]

Even Schwab has us as a 9 now. All three of these guys though, have us in either Duke or Kentucky's bracket, and they are the two best teams, IMO (Kentucky not the overall #2, but it took that team awhile to come together).[/quote]

Kentucky is a much better matchup for us with their relative lack of size.
 
Just keep winning. A strong finish to the regular season and a good showing in the BET will get us higher than a 9 seed. Let's take it one game at a time. These bracket projections mean nothing at the moment, except they point out that as of this second we are safely in the field.
 
[quote="Marillac" post=325707][quote="SJU61982" post=325704][quote="fordham96" post=325692]Joey Brackets has SJU as a 9 like Jerry Palm does playing Wofford:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology[/quote]

Even Schwab has us as a 9 now. All three of these guys though, have us in either Duke or Kentucky's bracket, and they are the two best teams, IMO (Kentucky not the overall #2, but it took that team awhile to come together).[/quote]

Kentucky is a much better matchup for us with their relative lack of size.[/quote]

Better matchup then Duke? Of course. Not a big team, but one of the few with multiple guards that I believe can hang with our guys.

All year, I've thought they have the second best talent in America, and they are finally starting to play like it.
 
I think the entire field will want to avoid Duke.

As usual, I feel that looking at our position on Bracket Matrix is the best indicator of where we are at.

As of today we are a 9 seed and on 112/112 brackets. Further, we are the first 9 seed, so we're a borderline 8 seed. Winning a few more games and getting to the 7 line (aka- avoiding 1 line Duke) looks very attainable.
 
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