[quote="weathermannyc" post=321036][quote="Adam" post=320987][quote="Mean Gene" post=320943][quote="Andrew" post=320939][quote="Adam" post=320714]Ok guys, get ready for some fun...
I've been saying since end of December that 9-9 would get us in while a lot of people said we needed 11 or 12. Now that we have 4 Q1 wins I'm going to revise that.
8-10, with perhaps 1 BET win, most likely gets us in. I hinted at this weeks ago, but now I feel confident in saying it given the quality of our wins. Hear me out.
Right now our NET is #40 at .500 in the Big East. Now, granted most remaining Big East games (plus BET) are at home so that will drop some if we finish 4-6 (3-5 in conference and 1-1 BET). However, I don't think we'd drop enough to move out of the top 50.
2 arguments against this that I'll get ahead of:
1.
8-10 isn't good enough for a major conference team to make the Tournament- completely false. Last year alone there were 5 teams that finished 8-10 in conference who made the Dance.
2.
Well maybe some teams with great SOS could at 8-10, but not us- this may be true, but for the most part I disagree. SOS doesn't matter nearly as much as actually winning against the best. The thing about St. John's is we've done REALLY well against Q1 teams. That is what the Committee cares about when evaluating bubble teams. I posted yesterday that at least 4 other bubble teams only have 1 Q1 win. NC State for example has played a bunch of Q1 ACC+OOC games, but only has 1 W. Temple has only 1 and I'm not even sure if they'll have another opportunity on their schedule. I could go on, but overall our resume would be pretty good even at 8-10.
Would I feel comfortable at 8-10 with a BET win? Of course not, but I do think most likely we'd make it. That said, this post probably won't matter as I think we'll go 9-9 or better.
[/quote]
Adam as many others have said your posts are fantastic and I appreciate all of your updates and use of statistics. That said I don’t believe an 8-10 record even if one of those wins comes over Villanova would put us in the tournament. The Big East is having a down year and there are no guarantees that even three Big East teams make the tournament in a down year as has been happening to the PAC 12. I guess if we made it to the Big East Tournament Finals it would be a possibility but I wouldn’t feel great about it. I think the margin of error for the Big East was wiped away by the shellacking they took against the Big 10. I feel like the conference has not recovered. Getting smacked around by Duke didn’t help either.
At 5-5 now, I would be extremely dissatisfied if we close the season 3-5. With the schedule remaining that would not be the record of an NCAA team. So let’s hope it never gets to this scenario.[/quote]
I agree Andrew, we have to win 5 of our last 8 at minimum. especially with 5 home games.[/quote]
Fair points, but this is why I think 8-10 (with maybe 1 BET win) gets us in:
As mentioned previously, last year there were five 8-10 conference teams to make the Tournament. One was from the Pac (which sucked last year), another from the SEC, Big 12, and ACC. I don't remember the exact teams (I think Syracuse, Texas, Arizona St,....), but I posted about it a few pages back.
Your argument is that the Big East is down- which is true- but let's look at NET conference rankings for this year:
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencenet
The Big East is actually ranked #4 overall, even very slightly ahead of the ACC.
Of course, if you look at the AP Top 25 that seems impossible, because of projected 1/2/3 seeds like Duke, UNC, UVA, VT and Louisville. However, the ACC also has #86 Pitt, #93 Miami, #102 ND, #108 GT, #137 BC, and #195 Wake Forest. Also factor in there isn't a round robin so the bubble teams won't play everyone twice. Generally, these conferences want the top teams to play each other twice. So NC State for example (a middling team) won't play Duke 2X but will play Wake Forest 2X.
St. John's may have a couple less Q1 opportunities than other leagues, especially when compared to the Big 12 or Big Ten, but St. John's is actually WINNING these Q1 opportunities. NC State for example only has 1 Q1 win while we have 5. 5 is a HUGE number for a bubble team. Wouldn't surprise me at all if it's the biggest of all the bubble teams. Because of this, SOS is much less of an issue.
I'll say with 99% confident that 8-10 with 2 BET wins gets us into the Dance, and with 75% confidence that 8-10 with 1 BET win gets us in.
Even 8-10 with zero BET wins may get us in... but it's too early to make that prediction.[/quote]
5 is a huge number for Quad 1 wins. There are only 11 schools with at least 5 Quad wins in the country. However, 2 of them are extremely fragile (VCU 49, cutoff 50) and at Georgetown (73, cutoff 75). Even if we lose both of those, then 3 is still fairly solid for the bubble. However, this is a snapshot and we only have 1 more chance at a Quad 1 win as it stands today.
Here is a look at team just ahead or behind us in the NET rankings
34. NC St (Q1 1-6, Q2 4-0) 2 Q1 games remain, 2 Q2 games
35. Ohio St. ( Q1 3-5, Q2 2-2) 7 Q1 games remain, 1 Q2 game
36. Nebraska ( Q1 2-7, Q2 3-3) 5 Q1 games remain, 3 Q2 games
37. Oklahoma ( Q1 3-6, Q2 4-2) 6 Q1 games remain, 1 Q2 game
38. Texas (Q1 4-5, Q2 3-3) 5 Q1 games, 2 Q2 games
39. St. John's (Q1 5-4, Q2 2-1) 1 Q1 game, 5 Q2 games
40. TCU (Q1 0-5, Q2 5-1) 6 Q1 games, 3 Q2 games
41. Ole Miss ( Q1 3-7, Q2 2-0) 4 Q1 games remain, 3 Q2 games
42. UCF (Q1 0-1, Q2 3-2) 6 Q1 games, 3 Q2 games
43. Florida (Q1 1-8, Q2 3-1) 5 Q1 games, 1 Q2 game
44. Indiana (Q1 3-7, Q2 3-2) 6 Q1 games, 2 Q2 games
So, no doubt we have a strong profile among this group at this moment of time. But, If VCU and @ Gtown were to slip into Q2 then that profile can change really quick due to the number of remaining opportunities other schools still have. Also, we don't know how much of a pass the committee will give schools that have 8-10 or more Q1 losses. In the past, those schools can still get in at 18-13 or something like that and under .500 in conference due to SOS.
I'm really confident that we have little to no chance from an 8-10 BE record due to a below average non-conference schedule and a non-top heavy BE. (Wins against 1 and 2 seeds usually carry extra weight)
I worry about 9-9 as it could require wins in the BET or the bubble to break right. I feel good about 10-8.
Also, remember that there are several locks from perceived 1 conference leagues (Gonzaga, Nevada, Buffalo, maybe even Wofford) where a loss in the conference tournament will result in an at-large bid rather than the AQ bid essentially compressing the bubble.[/quote]
Thanks, that's a fair look at things.
I'll just say if our biggest issue on Selection Sunday is a weak SOS, then that's a far better problem than most other bubble teams will have. Keep in mind by nature of the bubble, every team has issues. Some will only have only 1 or 2 Q1 wins. Some will have several horrible losses. Some won't have more than ~18 wins. Etc. Out of all the typical bubble problems, having a weak SOS would IMO be the best one. Q1 wins is the ultimate trump card, there is not one better than it. Had we went 9-9 without beating Marquette (and instead beating teams like Georgetown/DePaul at home), then I'd feel a lot less safe.
I think the fact that so few teams currently have as many Q1 wins as us speaks volumes. I also think Georgetown and VCU are strong enough to finish top 75/50. Both teams just keep getting better.
I'd still say 8-10 (plus 1 BET win) gets us in, but could very well be Dayton which people wouldn't be happy with. Given our remaining schedule, we need to shoot for at least 10-8 which is very attainable... but if we end up at 9-9 I'd feel confident in making the Tournament and not playing in Dayton.
