NET Rankings 2021-22

[ADORAZ]

ADAM certainly knows the NET formula.

Above I predicted #75-80, so #78 (or #77) is right in the middle, one of my better guesses. /media/kunena/emoticons/smile.png

Here's another guess for what I think this team needs to do to make the Tournament. Note, I'm NOT saying all of these would be locks, but rather >50% chance:
5-0 / 0-1 BET
4-1 / 1-1 BET
3-2 / 3-1 BET (I realize the losses are accumulating here, but there should be high-level BE teams in the semis and finals... not like beating Georgetown... so I'm counting the wins as more significant despite the increased total number of losses)
??? / 4-0 BET (lock)

It's frustrating that this team dug themselves such a big hole, but at least the NIT is now a possibility with an outside shot at the Tournament. I'd still much rather the team make the NIT at a minimum than nothing at all, even though the season would still be pretty disappointing overall. For the NIT I think we'd need to go 3-2 / 1-1 BET.

All that said, a lot depends on who we beat. We need more Q1 wins, so last night was huge in keeping hopes alive. Also great that Pitt is now Q3.

 

[MakingPlays]

ADAM certainly knows the NET formula.

Above I predicted #75-80, so #78 (or #77) is right in the middle, one of my better guesses. /media/kunena/emoticons/smile.png

Here's another guess for what I think this team needs to do to make the Tournament. Note, I'm NOT saying all of these would be locks, but rather >50% chance:
5-0 / 0-1 BET
4-1 / 1-1 BET
3-2 / 3-1 BET (I realize the losses are accumulating here, but there should be high-level BE teams in the semis and finals... not like beating Georgetown... so I'm counting the wins as more significant despite the increased total number of losses)
??? / 4-0 BET (lock)

It's frustrating that this team dug themselves such a big hole, but at least the NIT is now a possibility with an outside shot at the Tournament. I'd still much rather the team make the NIT at a minimum than nothing at all, even though the season would still be pretty disappointing overall. For the NIT I think we'd need to go 3-2 / 1-1 BET.

All that said, a lot depends on who we beat. We need more Q1 wins, so last night was huge in keeping hopes alive. Also great that Pitt is now Q3.

This is what I was thinking as well.  Next 4 games are all VERY winnable games, that we should actually be the favorite in each game.  Then you have Marquette, they were hot early but starting to cool down a bit, lost 2 of their last 3 games, including a loss against Butler.  I actually think we match-up well with Marquette, they like to play up-tempo and use their bench as well, will be a really good game.

This Butler game Friday is huge.  A win and they probably don't move much in the NET, but a loss probably sets them back about 10 spots.  Can't afford to lose that one, that resume looks a whole lot better with only 1 Q3 loss rather than 2.  

 

[monte]

If Posh can stay healthy, and if Posh, Champ and Wheeler(to a lesser degree) can play at or close to their best ball down the stretch, we can finish the season on a nice run and maybe be in the conversation for a tourney bid. 

 

[Knight]

If Posh can stay healthy, and if Posh, Champ and Wheeler(to a lesser degree) can play at or close to their best ball down the stretch, we can finish the season on a nice run and maybe be in the conversation for a tourney bid. 

Don’t forget Wusu. He’s a Sophomore with talent that I think would benefit by a few less minutes. His errors seem to come when he tries to do too much, be it passing or dribbling. Don’t discount what he can contribute.

 

[weathermannyc]

ADAM certainly knows the NET formula.

Above I predicted #75-80, so #78 (or #77) is right in the middle, one of my better guesses. /media/kunena/emoticons/smile.png

Here's another guess for what I think this team needs to do to make the Tournament. Note, I'm NOT saying all of these would be locks, but rather >50% chance:
5-0 / 0-1 BET
4-1 / 1-1 BET
3-2 / 3-1 BET (I realize the losses are accumulating here, but there should be high-level BE teams in the semis and finals... not like beating Georgetown... so I'm counting the wins as more significant despite the increased total number of losses)
??? / 4-0 BET (lock)

It's frustrating that this team dug themselves such a big hole, but at least the NIT is now a possibility with an outside shot at the Tournament. I'd still much rather the team make the NIT at a minimum than nothing at all, even though the season would still be pretty disappointing overall. For the NIT I think we'd need to go 3-2 / 1-1 BET.

All that said, a lot depends on who we beat. We need more Q1 wins, so last night was huge in keeping hopes alive. Also great that Pitt is now Q3.

Nice job with the NET coverage as always Adam.  Only thing I will strongly disagree with is the 3-2 scenario.  I think we would absolutely have to win the Big East Tourney in that case.  Our OOC resume is just too weak and conferences like the MWC and
WCC are too strong and deep this year. 

 

[weathermannyc]

If Posh can stay healthy, and if Posh, Champ and Wheeler(to a lesser degree) can play at or close to their best ball down the stretch, we can finish the season on a nice run and maybe be in the conversation for a tourney bid. 

Don’t forget Wusu. He’s a Sophomore with talent that I think would benefit by a few less minutes. His errors seem to come when he tries to do too much, be it passing or dribbling. Don’t discount what he can contribute.

IMHO...Wusu has been the recipient of unfair criticism this year.  He has a very good skill set for a combo guard/swing.  He has been asked to a primary ball handler / playmaker for significant chunks of time. This has led to overexposure for someone who is not a point guard.  He makes a lot of good decisions and has a good sense of angles and spacing. Keep in mind that he is only a Soph and has been asked to do more than his skill set and experience suggests.  He needs to learn what works against weaker or mid level teams may not against the high level teams and adjust.  If he does that and develops a mid range jumper like Posh has, then I think everyone will be very very happy with the results as an upperclassman.

 

[ADORAZ]

ADAM certainly knows the NET formula.

Above I predicted #75-80, so #78 (or #77) is right in the middle, one of my better guesses. /media/kunena/emoticons/smile.png

Here's another guess for what I think this team needs to do to make the Tournament. Note, I'm NOT saying all of these would be locks, but rather >50% chance:
5-0 / 0-1 BET
4-1 / 1-1 BET
3-2 / 3-1 BET (I realize the losses are accumulating here, but there should be high-level BE teams in the semis and finals... not like beating Georgetown... so I'm counting the wins as more significant despite the increased total number of losses)
??? / 4-0 BET (lock)

It's frustrating that this team dug themselves such a big hole, but at least the NIT is now a possibility with an outside shot at the Tournament. I'd still much rather the team make the NIT at a minimum than nothing at all, even though the season would still be pretty disappointing overall. For the NIT I think we'd need to go 3-2 / 1-1 BET.

All that said, a lot depends on who we beat. We need more Q1 wins, so last night was huge in keeping hopes alive. Also great that Pitt is now Q3.

Nice job with the NET coverage as always Adam.  Only thing I will strongly disagree with is the 3-2 scenario.  I think we would absolutely have to win the Big East Tourney in that case.  Our OOC resume is just too weak and conferences like the MWC and
WCC are too strong and deep this year. 

Very possible, but I'd still like our chances at 3-2 / 3-1 BET. That'd bring us to 20-14 overall and the BET should give us 2 more Q1 wins. Then I'd assume we'd have 1 other Q1 win from the regular season (either vs Xavier or @ Marquette), which would give us 5 Q1 wins overall. 5 Q1 wins would be quite a lot for a bubble team, and is the same amount that Mullin's final team had (although they also had fewer Q1 losses at 5-7 Q1). Further, going 6-3 (3-2 / 3-1 BET) should help our NET get into the top 45-60 territory (Mullin's final team was #72- the worst ever to qualify for an at-large), though of course it all depends on how well we play. Every game remaining on our schedule would be a big NET boost if we blow teams out, but simply beating them would help too. It all starts tomorrow, absolute must win.

 

[austour]

5-0 / 0-1 BET
4-1 / 1-1 BET
3-2 / 3-1 BET

They don't get in in any of those scenarios.  no wins against ranked teams the entire year.  4-9 quad 1 going into the BET even if they win out.  Won't play well in the room.  At Seton Hall and at Xavier are the only real quality wins on the schedule, and v X and at Marquette are the only games left to gain ground . You need to increase your BET wins by 1 in each scenario to get on the bubble, with the added BET W being another good win - not against a bottom feeder with a 1st round upset. It would end up being the one of highest profile wins given the timing.  Or course they get the auto in scenario 3 if they win 1 more BET game so the quality of wins is moot.

 

[weathermannyc]

Very possible, but I'd still like our chances at 3-2 / 3-1 BET. That'd bring us to 20-14 overall and the BET should give us 2 more Q1 wins. Then I'd assume we'd have 1 other Q1 win from the regular season (either vs Xavier or @ Marquette), which would give us 5 Q1 wins overall. 5 Q1 wins would be quite a lot for a bubble team, and is the same amount that Mullin's final team had (although they also had fewer Q1 losses at 5-7 Q1). Further, going 6-3 (3-2 / 3-1 BET) should help our NET get into the top 45-60 territory (Mullin's final team was #72- the worst ever to qualify for an at-large), though of course it all depends on how well we play. Every game remaining on our schedule would be a big NET boost if we blow teams out, but simply beating them would help too. It all starts tomorrow, absolute must win.

I don't think you can assume a Q1 win in the regular season.  Those two games are the most likely ones for us to lose and in a 3-2 scenario, we probably don't get either one.  

While I agree that 5 Q1 wins is very strong for a bubble team, it would have to be accompanied by a bunch of Q2 wins.  We really don't have much there (1 so far with 2 more possible pre-BET).  Also keep in mind that Q1 and Q2 wins are harder to come by than it seems as the NCAA and NET consider BET games to be home games for us and not neutral site games.

Finally, our non-conference SOS is very very weak (200 or worse) with no Q1 or Q2 wins. Monmouth at 120 is our best OOC win, so no top 100 wins either. The committee has tended to punish teams with this type of OOC resume. 



 

 

[ADORAZ]

Very possible, but I'd still like our chances at 3-2 / 3-1 BET. That'd bring us to 20-14 overall and the BET should give us 2 more Q1 wins. Then I'd assume we'd have 1 other Q1 win from the regular season (either vs Xavier or @ Marquette), which would give us 5 Q1 wins overall. 5 Q1 wins would be quite a lot for a bubble team, and is the same amount that Mullin's final team had (although they also had fewer Q1 losses at 5-7 Q1). Further, going 6-3 (3-2 / 3-1 BET) should help our NET get into the top 45-60 territory (Mullin's final team was #72- the worst ever to qualify for an at-large), though of course it all depends on how well we play. Every game remaining on our schedule would be a big NET boost if we blow teams out, but simply beating them would help too. It all starts tomorrow, absolute must win.

I don't think you can assume a Q1 win in the regular season.  Those two games are the most likely ones for us to lose and in a 3-2 scenario, we probably don't get either one.  

While I agree that 5 Q1 wins is very strong for a bubble team, it would have to be accompanied by a bunch of Q2 wins.  We really don't have much there (1 so far with 2 more possible pre-BET).  Also keep in mind that Q1 and Q2 wins are harder to come by than it seems as the NCAA and NET consider BET games to be home games for us and not neutral site games.

Finally, our non-conference SOS is very very weak (200 or worse) with no Q1 or Q2 wins. Monmouth at 120 is our best OOC win, so no top 100 wins either. The committee has tended to punish teams with this type of OOC resume. 







 

Nothing can be assumed, but I'd say if we were to go 3-2 then there'd be a >50% chance we'd win one of the two Q1 games in the process. Xavier at home in particular we'll probably be favored in or at worst only a couple point dog. We'd also lose one of the games we're supposed to win which is how we'd get to 3-2 with a Q1 win. It's possible of course we could go 3-2 with 0 Q1 wins as you said... but it's also possible we'd get 2 Q1 wins. I'll settle on 1 as the most likely outcome.

That is concerning about only having one Q2 win, I wasn't aware and that is pretty bad.

Yes, I do know that the BET games would be home, but I think we'd play #1/2 in our second game (almost certainly Q1) and currently there are 4 Big East teams within the top 30 and a 5th team at #31. I'd wager that we'd play one of those 5 teams. So it's certainly possible we'd only get 1 Q1 win, but I think it's just as likely if not more likely we'd get 2 Q1 wins if we make it to the finals.

As for our OOC, I definitely get it as I've been critical of it since before it was finalized last summer, and that very well could keep us out. If we had a similar OOC resume to 80% of the Big East then we'd be a definite lock for the above scenarios I gave. For now I'll leave my predictions as they are, again I'm not super confident in them, but I still think there's a >50% chance any of them would get us in. That certainly could change though if we get only 1-2 more Q1 wins for example, or if we win games by close margins while getting blown out in the losses.

One game at a time. Beat Butler as we're supposed to tomorrow and then 2-2, 3-1, or even 4-0 doesn't look so daunting. Really wish we had that Marquette home game on our schedule, though!

 

[RedStormNC]

Adam: re home game vs. Marquette...

ticket office told me today there is still no official decision from conference if game will be canceled or played.

 

[ADORAZ]

Adam: re home game vs. Marquette...

ticket office told me today there is still no decision if game will be canceled or played.

Oh wow. I just assumed there was no chance it'd be played.

Still think the school needs to look into OOC games if it isn't played, though. Maybe even after the BET on Sunday if that's allowed (if we make it to the finals on Saturday then just cancel so we don't get burnt out)?? Worst thing possible would be if we don't schedule anyone and then we barely miss out on the Tournament.

 

[MakingPlays]

Adam: re home game vs. Marquette...

ticket office told me today there is still no decision if game will be canceled or played.

Oh wow. I just assumed there was no chance it'd be played.

Still think the school needs to look into OOC games if it isn't played, though. Maybe even after the BET on Sunday if that's allowed (if we make it to the finals on Saturday then just cancel so we don't get burnt out)?? Worst thing possible would be if we don't schedule anyone and then we barely miss out on the Tournament.

I was wondering why they couldn't reschedule the Marquette home game to Sunday March 6th.  Have it be an early noon game.  Both teams are going to have to be in NY for the BE tournament anyways that week.  And the earliest either team would have to play would be that Wednesday night which would ensure at least 2 1/2 days off to rest and prepare for the tournament.
 

 

[ADORAZ]

I like that idea, but 3 possibilities why the Marquette game hasn't been scheduled for Sunday after the BET:

1. It may not be allowed within the Big East or NCAA rules to play regular season games after the regular season ends. Technically the BET counts as a post-season. Just taking a guess here, not sure if that's the case.
2. St. John's for whatever reason may not see it as important, which wouldn't shock me given how last year when we rescheduled our cancelled OOC game against Texas Tech we replaced it with a cupcake at home (mid January). Had we schedule a respectable or good opponent (Q1/Q2) and won then we would have likely made the Tournament. It's very possible our mediocre scheduling could keep us out of the Tournament 2 years in a row.
3. Marquette may not be interested, and to be honest I wouldn't blame them. Why should they? I'm sure their mentality is they expect to play in the finals on Saturday night and wouldn't want to burn their team out or risk injury by playing too often. Maybe if we play well enough to solidly enter the top 75 (Q1 game for BOTH of us potentially) then they'd be interested... but if I'm Shaka I doubt I'd play it regardless. They have 7 Q1 wins as it is, they don't need more.

St. John's needs to figure this out ASAP. If we win these next 2 and get into the top 75 then a home game for us would be a Q1 game for others. Even if we play a top 50/60 bubble team that'd still be a Q2 game for us, which we certainly need more of. Absolutely seems to be a win-win here for many bubble teams.

 

[redmen4life]

I like that idea, but 3 possibilities why the Marquette game hasn't been scheduled for Sunday after the BET:

1. It may not be allowed within the Big East or NCAA rules to play regular season games after the regular season ends. Technically the BET counts as a post-season. Just taking a guess here, not sure if that's the case.
2. St. John's for whatever reason may not see it as important, which wouldn't shock me given how last year when we rescheduled our cancelled OOC game against Texas Tech we replaced it with a cupcake at home (mid January). Had we schedule a respectable or good opponent (Q1/Q2) and won then we would have likely made the Tournament. It's very possible our mediocre scheduling could keep us out of the Tournament 2 years in a row.
3. Marquette may not be interested, and to be honest I wouldn't blame them. Why should they? I'm sure their mentality is they expect to play in the finals on Saturday night and wouldn't want to burn their team out or risk injury by playing too often. Maybe if we play well enough to solidly enter the top 75 (Q1 game for BOTH of us potentially) then they'd be interested... but if I'm Shaka I doubt I'd play it regardless. They have 7 Q1 wins as it is, they don't need more.

St. John's needs to figure this out ASAP. If we win these next 2 and get into the top 75 then a home game for us would be a Q1 game for others. Even if we play a top 50/60 bubble team that'd still be a Q2 game for us, which we certainly need more of. Absolutely seems to be a win-win here for many bubble teams.

Rutgers
WV
ND
St. Louis.

all would be good matchups.

 

[Amaseinyourface]

I like that idea, but 3 possibilities why the Marquette game hasn't been scheduled for Sunday after the BET:

1. It may not be allowed within the Big East or NCAA rules to play regular season games after the regular season ends. Technically the BET counts as a post-season. Just taking a guess here, not sure if that's the case.
2. St. John's for whatever reason may not see it as important, which wouldn't shock me given how last year when we rescheduled our cancelled OOC game against Texas Tech we replaced it with a cupcake at home (mid January). Had we schedule a respectable or good opponent (Q1/Q2) and won then we would have likely made the Tournament. It's very possible our mediocre scheduling could keep us out of the Tournament 2 years in a row.
3. Marquette may not be interested, and to be honest I wouldn't blame them. Why should they? I'm sure their mentality is they expect to play in the finals on Saturday night and wouldn't want to burn their team out or risk injury by playing too often. Maybe if we play well enough to solidly enter the top 75 (Q1 game for BOTH of us potentially) then they'd be interested... but if I'm Shaka I doubt I'd play it regardless. They have 7 Q1 wins as it is, they don't need more.

St. John's needs to figure this out ASAP. If we win these next 2 and get into the top 75 then a home game for us would be a Q1 game for others. Even if we play a top 50/60 bubble team that'd still be a Q2 game for us, which we certainly need more of. Absolutely seems to be a win-win here for many bubble teams.

Great stuff as always. But I thought we replaced the Texas tech game with BYU.

 

[ADORAZ]

Amase- I'm actually not sure if the BYU game replaced Texas Tech (you may be right), but I do know we had 1 additional OOC game we were able to schedule and chose Utah Valley. That was January 20 when we scheduled them (for January 23). To the contrary, a team like Marquette scheduled UNC a couple weeks later.

https://redstormsports.com/news/202...hns-to-host-utah-valley-on-saturday-afternoon

Overall our OOC schedule was really poor last year and that was known at the time when we scheduled Utah Valley (and was known pre-season as well), so regardless of whether it replaced the Texas Tech game or not doesn't really matter. We knew we needed another solid OOC game at the time (6-1 with 0 Q1 wins and a terrible NET) and didn't schedule properly. Feels like history may be repeating itself.

 

[MCNPA]

Amase- I'm actually not sure if the BYU game replaced Texas Tech (you may be right), but I do know we had 1 additional OOC game we were able to schedule and chose Utah Valley. That was January 20 when we scheduled them (for January 23). To the contrary, a team like Marquette scheduled UNC a couple weeks later.

https://redstormsports.com/news/202...hns-to-host-utah-valley-on-saturday-afternoon

Overall our OOC schedule was really poor last year and that was known at the time when we scheduled Utah Valley (and was known pre-season as well), so regardless of whether it replaced the Texas Tech game or not doesn't really matter. We knew we needed another solid OOC game at the time (6-1 with 0 Q1 wins and a terrible NET) and didn't schedule properly. Feels like history may be repeating itself.

only thing we can do is keep winning.  Winning solves those ills. 
 

 

[Mean Gene]

Adam, how much will the fact that we won by 34 points positively affect our NET ranking? 

 

[Andrew]

Adam, how much will the fact that we won by 34 points positively affect our NET ranking? 

Our Pomeroy moved up to 64 for whatever that is worth.