Boo- Marquette reschedule seems unlikely but there must still be a chance because ticket office has told me (as recently as Thursday morning) there is still no decision either way and they are awaiting update from conference.
NET Rankings 2021-22
- Thread starter ADORAZ
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beast of the east
Active member
Answer I got was emphatic no.RedStormNC post=459135 said:
I am enjoying this very late push and appreciate the team and staff giving it a go and better play. That said, I think Johnnies come up short for Dance ticket, but am enjoying the stretch run and hopefully wrong.
I leave the math to well versed and enjoyable poster Adam, but the one game that was especially crushing was UConn loss away where we led w 3.5 seconds in regulation and the rarity of a long Husky pass being knocked away off SJ enabling half court entry pass, missed shot & Sonogo put back at buzzer. That sequence just does not happen much, not to mention Sonogo going over the back of a defender, but one wonders where we would stand today grabbing that big road win. We lost games we deserved to, but that was not one of them. Oh well, got that off my chest.
I leave the math to well versed and enjoyable poster Adam, but the one game that was especially crushing was UConn loss away where we led w 3.5 seconds in regulation and the rarity of a long Husky pass being knocked away off SJ enabling half court entry pass, missed shot & Sonogo put back at buzzer. That sequence just does not happen much, not to mention Sonogo going over the back of a defender, but one wonders where we would stand today grabbing that big road win. We lost games we deserved to, but that was not one of them. Oh well, got that off my chest.
MakingPlays
Well-known member
Interesting that Creighton is every major bracketologist bracket and has a NET of 67. Johnnies have NET of 66 and not even among the "Next 4 Out" in any of those brackets. That means currently even with a better NET than Creighton they aren't even considered within 8 spots of them.
I'm thinking with a Creighton win, it'll be a bigger jump than most expect and would put us at least among the "Next 4 Out" on most brackets, may even put us in the field for some brackets. And all hope is not lost if they lose against Creighton, but it would be a heartbreaker because this is a very winnable game against a bubble team they are going to be fighting against for one of those last few spots if they finish strong. ESPN BPI updated and gives St.John's a 78% chance to win this game.
I'm thinking with a Creighton win, it'll be a bigger jump than most expect and would put us at least among the "Next 4 Out" on most brackets, may even put us in the field for some brackets. And all hope is not lost if they lose against Creighton, but it would be a heartbreaker because this is a very winnable game against a bubble team they are going to be fighting against for one of those last few spots if they finish strong. ESPN BPI updated and gives St.John's a 78% chance to win this game.
Mullins Revenge
Well-known member
I think this would get them in:Paultzman post=459154 said:
Go 3-1 down the stretch. The loss being to Marquette.
In the BET beat Gtown on Wed and Providence on Thursday.
That would get us to a 20-13 record on the season w/ a 6th place finish in the big east. That should do it I think.
Given there are roughly 48 at-large teams selected every year, it's best to shoot for a top 50 NET. We were well outside that range in 2019 (#73), but our Q1 record of 5-7 pushed us into the field. A good comparison is a team like NC State who had a NET somewhere in the 30s but I think either 0 or 1 Q1 wins. They were left out.
Creighton doesn't have a great NET (as Making Plays noted- 1 below ours at #67) but they are 3-5 Q1 and 3-2 Q2, so 6-7 Q1/Q2. We are 2-9 Q1 and 1-1 Q2, so 3-10 Q1/Q2. Creighton also beat BYU OOC. Overall they have the much better resume.
I know the school is sending mixed signals regarding the Marquette game (mostly negative signals), so I wonder why we didn't schedule another bubble team for this weekend. Today or tomorrow may have worked. Right now we're on fire and have our full team, and badly need another OOC chance. We also had a 5 game gap, so this looked to be our best opportunity for one until after the BET on Sunday (if that's even allowed).
Creighton doesn't have a great NET (as Making Plays noted- 1 below ours at #67) but they are 3-5 Q1 and 3-2 Q2, so 6-7 Q1/Q2. We are 2-9 Q1 and 1-1 Q2, so 3-10 Q1/Q2. Creighton also beat BYU OOC. Overall they have the much better resume.
I know the school is sending mixed signals regarding the Marquette game (mostly negative signals), so I wonder why we didn't schedule another bubble team for this weekend. Today or tomorrow may have worked. Right now we're on fire and have our full team, and badly need another OOC chance. We also had a 5 game gap, so this looked to be our best opportunity for one until after the BET on Sunday (if that's even allowed).
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MakingPlays
Well-known member
Adam I seem to remember one year a team that was looking to add another game after an early elimination the conference tournament because they were on the bubble and had an extra game they could add. I really want to say that team was Georgia Tech and it was Pastner trying to do this. I'm wondering if it is possible to add a game after the conference tournament is the staff just going to try to do that if they need an extra game.Adam post=459171 said:
Edit: Scratch what I said above, it was actually Xavier. And they weren't allowed to do so.
[URL]https://www.cincinnati.com/sto...-add-games-ahead-selection-sunday/4665848001/[/URL]
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MakingPlays
Well-known member
Barring them winning all 5 remaining games, If I was staff, I'd have a few teams on speed dial and aim for the March 6th date to add a game. Any team with sub 75 NET Home or Away I'd take it.
It is not just about the NET. The NET is just the modern (and somewhat improved) version of the RPI. Its just serves as an easy shortcut to help evaluate the relative strength or weakness of who you have beaten and who has beaten you.
The other parts are the perception of the quality of the wins and losses and the eye test. We are improving and the eye test is shifting in our favor. The resume as a whole is what concerns me.
Just for a very simple comparison, I will use the NET and KenPom to compare Seton Hall and Creighton with us. I have subjectively defined good wins and losses as top 100 KenPom and bad losses as outside the Top 100 KenPom.
Seton Hall
quality wins: @Michigan (KP 26, NET 29), Texas (KP 14, NET 15), Rutgers (KP 71, NET 76), UConn (KP 18, NET 17), @SJU (KP 61, NET 66), Creighton (KP 65, NET 67), Xavier (KP 38, NET 24)
quality losses: neutral Ohio St (KP 22, NET 18), @Providence (KP 44, NET 27), Villanova (KP 11, NET 7), @Marquette (KP 35, NET 30), @ Villanova (KP 11, NET 7), @UConn (KP 18, NET 17)
bad losses: @DePaul (KP 110, NET 110)
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 2-0
Road: 4-5
neutral: 1-1
Creighton
quality wins: neutral BYU (KP 52, NET 54), Villanova (KP 11, NET 7), @Marquette(KP 35, NET 30), SJU(KP 61, NET 66), @UConn(KP 18, NET 17),
quality losses: neutral Colorado St (KP 40, NET 33), Iowa St (KP 30, NET 35), @Villanova(KP 11, NET 7), @Xavier(KP 38, NET 24), Xavier(KP 38, NET 24), @Seton Hall (KP 37, NET 36)
bad losses: Arizona St (KP 117, NET 118), @ Butler (KP 139, NET 127)
Q1:3-5
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 6-0
road: 5-4
neutral: 3-1
St. John's
quality wins: @Seton Hall(KP 37, NET 36), @ Xavier(KP 38, NET 24)
quality losses: @Indiana (KP 46, NET 44), Kansas (KP 5, NET 5), @Providence(KP 44, NET 27), @UConn(KP 18, NET 17), @creighton(KP 65, NET 67), Seton Hall(KP 37, NET 36), @Villanova(KP 11, NET 7), Providence(KP 44, NET 27), Villanova(KP 11, NET 7), UConn(KP 18, NET 17)
bad losses: Pittsburgh (KP 170, NET 170)
Q1: 2-9
Q2: 1-1
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 7-1
road: 4-5
neutral: 0-0
and just for giggles, here is the corresponding resume for the last team in at BracketMatrix
BYU
quality wins: San Diego St (KP 23, NET 34), (semi-away)Oregon (KP 73, NET 63), @Missouri St (KP 55, NET 59), Utah St (KP 53, NET 64), St. Mary's (KP 21, NET 20), @ San Francisco (KP 24, NET 31)
quality losses: neutral Creighton (KP 65, NET 67), neutral Vanderbilt (KP 79, NET 77), @Gonzaga (KP 1, NET 1), @ Santa Clara (KP 76, NET 73), San Francisco (KP 24, NET 31), Gonzaga (KP1, NET 1), St, Mary's (KP21, NET 20)
bad losses: @ Utah Valley (KP 118, NET 117), @Pacific (KP 272, NET 279)
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-1
road: 6-5
neutral: 3-2
I will leave this for you to decide, but my opinion is that we still have a lot of work to do just to get TO the bubble. Yes, we have opportunities, but so do the other teams.
The other parts are the perception of the quality of the wins and losses and the eye test. We are improving and the eye test is shifting in our favor. The resume as a whole is what concerns me.
Just for a very simple comparison, I will use the NET and KenPom to compare Seton Hall and Creighton with us. I have subjectively defined good wins and losses as top 100 KenPom and bad losses as outside the Top 100 KenPom.
Seton Hall
quality wins: @Michigan (KP 26, NET 29), Texas (KP 14, NET 15), Rutgers (KP 71, NET 76), UConn (KP 18, NET 17), @SJU (KP 61, NET 66), Creighton (KP 65, NET 67), Xavier (KP 38, NET 24)
quality losses: neutral Ohio St (KP 22, NET 18), @Providence (KP 44, NET 27), Villanova (KP 11, NET 7), @Marquette (KP 35, NET 30), @ Villanova (KP 11, NET 7), @UConn (KP 18, NET 17)
bad losses: @DePaul (KP 110, NET 110)
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 2-0
Road: 4-5
neutral: 1-1
Creighton
quality wins: neutral BYU (KP 52, NET 54), Villanova (KP 11, NET 7), @Marquette(KP 35, NET 30), SJU(KP 61, NET 66), @UConn(KP 18, NET 17),
quality losses: neutral Colorado St (KP 40, NET 33), Iowa St (KP 30, NET 35), @Villanova(KP 11, NET 7), @Xavier(KP 38, NET 24), Xavier(KP 38, NET 24), @Seton Hall (KP 37, NET 36)
bad losses: Arizona St (KP 117, NET 118), @ Butler (KP 139, NET 127)
Q1:3-5
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 6-0
road: 5-4
neutral: 3-1
St. John's
quality wins: @Seton Hall(KP 37, NET 36), @ Xavier(KP 38, NET 24)
quality losses: @Indiana (KP 46, NET 44), Kansas (KP 5, NET 5), @Providence(KP 44, NET 27), @UConn(KP 18, NET 17), @creighton(KP 65, NET 67), Seton Hall(KP 37, NET 36), @Villanova(KP 11, NET 7), Providence(KP 44, NET 27), Villanova(KP 11, NET 7), UConn(KP 18, NET 17)
bad losses: Pittsburgh (KP 170, NET 170)
Q1: 2-9
Q2: 1-1
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 7-1
road: 4-5
neutral: 0-0
and just for giggles, here is the corresponding resume for the last team in at BracketMatrix
BYU
quality wins: San Diego St (KP 23, NET 34), (semi-away)Oregon (KP 73, NET 63), @Missouri St (KP 55, NET 59), Utah St (KP 53, NET 64), St. Mary's (KP 21, NET 20), @ San Francisco (KP 24, NET 31)
quality losses: neutral Creighton (KP 65, NET 67), neutral Vanderbilt (KP 79, NET 77), @Gonzaga (KP 1, NET 1), @ Santa Clara (KP 76, NET 73), San Francisco (KP 24, NET 31), Gonzaga (KP1, NET 1), St, Mary's (KP21, NET 20)
bad losses: @ Utah Valley (KP 118, NET 117), @Pacific (KP 272, NET 279)
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-1
road: 6-5
neutral: 3-2
I will leave this for you to decide, but my opinion is that we still have a lot of work to do just to get TO the bubble. Yes, we have opportunities, but so do the other teams.
beast of the east
Active member
No room in the schedule. As it is, with Covid, there is some regret having to had played so many teams in a week, sometimes with just one day off in between games.Adam post=459171 said:
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weathermannyc post=459189 said:
Are we at least in line for some sun?
I am really happy that the team has picked up its play. It has been a tough season. The COVID Pause, missing Champs, Alexander's injuries and even the Pinzon situation. Remember Pinzon was on the court in the final seconds when we came up short at Indiana. We have lost some tough ones. The game at UCONN that Paultzman pointed out could have been the biggest. I think our improving NET that Adam explains says we are a better team then our record indicates. That said I still don't see many paths to an NCAA tournament. Read what WeathermanNYC wrote.
These are the options I see
1. Winning the BET
2. Winning out and getting to the Finals of the BET
3. Winning out and getting to the semifinals of the BET
4. Winning the next 3, lose to Marquette and make it to the Finals of the BET.
Result 1 is a guarantee but will take four straight wins in four days. Georgetown did it last year so anything is possible but the odds are going to be very low.
Result 2 will do it but will take 6 wins in a row. Also very low odds.
Result 3 and 4 give are also likely but still hard.
Don't think a loss to Marquette and a loss in the Semis is enough to do it.
At this point it's one game at a time to survive and advance. Let's finish strong.
These are the options I see
1. Winning the BET
2. Winning out and getting to the Finals of the BET
3. Winning out and getting to the semifinals of the BET
4. Winning the next 3, lose to Marquette and make it to the Finals of the BET.
Result 1 is a guarantee but will take four straight wins in four days. Georgetown did it last year so anything is possible but the odds are going to be very low.
Result 2 will do it but will take 6 wins in a row. Also very low odds.
Result 3 and 4 give are also likely but still hard.
Don't think a loss to Marquette and a loss in the Semis is enough to do it.
At this point it's one game at a time to survive and advance. Let's finish strong.
Not something we didn’t know, but ESPN’s bubble watch listing 4 teams we have our eyes on just outside the bubble:
[URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2599/st.-john[/URL]'s-red-storm]St. John's[/url]: The win at [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2752/xavier-musketeers[/URL]]Xavier[/url] gave this profile a significant boost, and Mike Anderson's team has what it needs in terms of opportunities to climb even higher. St. John's closes the season with games against [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/156/creighton-bluejays[/URL]]Creighton[/url], [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/305/depaul-blue-demons[/URL]]DePaul[/url], the Musketeers and [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/269/marquette-golden-eagles[/URL]]Marquette[/url].
[URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2599/st.-john[/URL]'s-red-storm]St. John's[/url]: The win at [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2752/xavier-musketeers[/URL]]Xavier[/url] gave this profile a significant boost, and Mike Anderson's team has what it needs in terms of opportunities to climb even higher. St. John's closes the season with games against [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/156/creighton-bluejays[/URL]]Creighton[/url], [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/305/depaul-blue-demons[/URL]]DePaul[/url], the Musketeers and [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/269/marquette-golden-eagles[/URL]]Marquette[/url].
QueensBall
Member
Yeah, the photo above the Bubble Watch article was of Champagnie which (even though we're not on the Bubble yet) was an encouraging sign.sirvoo post=459317 said:
Something I try to remind myself around this time of year is that "The Bubble" is not a finite place the team needs to get to. It's not a number of wins and it's not a NET or KenPom ranking because it's a composite of teams. The Bubble is a moving target and it generally shrinks as the season progresses. The only reason we're starting to creep into the discussion is because we won those two games last week and a number of "bubble" teams lost important games for them. So I don't know if we need to go 3 for 4, or 4 for 4 or how many wins it would take in the BET. That's going to be dependent on how other teams do in the coming weeks and where we stand today doesn't tell us too much about we "need" to do. We know that we need to keep winning and close the year as strong as possible. We just don't want to play our way out of the conversation and although it's conceivable one loss does knock us out most likely we won't really know that for certain at the time of the loss.
Last year we stepped onto the bubble for a moment and then lost at home to an (at that point) awful DePaul team and then got crushed by Nova in the next one. Even then if you remember though the Bubble "shifted" when we bounced back and won our last couple of games to get back in the discussion (although on the fringe perhaps but 2 BET wins would almost certainly have done it) We lost to Hall in our first BET game though and that was that. Last year we were one of the teams with an opportunity that faded down the stretch. This year all we know is that we have to close as strong as possible. Don't play your way off. Maybe I'm naive but that seems to be how it goes.