NET Rankings 2021-22
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Andrew post=450993 said:
After the Pitt loss we dropped 30 spots in a single day- from #84 to #114. Had we hung on to win I think we actually would've still dropped a bit given it would've been on a last second play and we were awful the rest of the game. Exact margins no longer matter but offensive and defensive efficiencies do, so the number of points scored or given up matters. Had we won that Pitt game in the final seconds I think our NET would've dropped to around #88 rather than #114. From there we would have slowly crept up from #88 (rather than #114). After the UConn game we did actually improve a couple spots despite the loss, due to us playing a solid game and them being a strong opponent (on the road).
If I were to guess, had we won both of those games by a point or two in the final seconds our NET right now would be in the high 50s, and despite that still not being a great NET we'd be in the Tournament picture since we'd have 1 Q1 W and 0 Q4 Ls. In today's unfortunate alternative reality, we are #97 with 0 Q1 Ws and 1 Q4 L.
The fact that a couple possessions would've influenced the NET that much just shows that we still have plenty of opportunities to make the Dance. The question is whether we're good enough to get to 11 or so BE wins. As I've said previously, if I were to bet I don't think we'll make it. However, I do think getting to 9 or so is very possible, and from there we'd just need to steal a couple wins (as we should've done at UConn). Despite our mediocre current position we're in a much better place than Georgetown, DePaul, and Butler... and this is a 6/7 bid league.
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There are 3 things which have consistently hurt our NET during CMA's tenure- one which hasn't been discussed much.
1. Lack of winning enough games (obviously, this is the biggest issue)
2. Our poor OOC schedules both in regards to opponents and lack of neutral/away games (discussed plenty)
3. Our inability to blow teams out, critical for offensive/defensive efficiencies. I believe the team has let up some in basically every single game this year with around 10 minutes to go in the second half, and that has been awful for our NET. The Georgetown game is a good example of a game where we could've won by 30 and really helped our NET. Granted we still won by 19 and our NET did go up, but it could've gone up much more. Same was true for DePaul where we only won by 5 and nearly every other game we won this season.
Here's an example of how important it is to never let us: #131 Butler at #6 Villanova. Now, you might be thinking that given Villanova is home vs an awful team that even winning would hurt them (or at best keep them around #6), right? And that Butler being on the road vs the #6 team would have to help them? Wrong. Villanova destroyed Butler 82-42, and afterwards actually improved 3 spots to #3 (huge movement given how high they're ranked), and Butler dropped 15 spots to #146. I'm certain Wright knows how to gain NET, because he didn't take his starters out for almost the entire game.
You'd think with CMA's system (lots of players/fresh legs) it'd be more common for them to blow teams out, but that hasn't been the case since game 1 (vs one of the worst teams in D1). That was the only game this entire year that we won by more than 21, and frankly given our weak schedule we should've won at least 3-5 games by 21+. I'm not sure if CMA is aware of the importance of playing a full 40 minutes even when the game is out of reach for the opposing team, but he should be. It's not only about winning or losing, it's about how you win or lose. Now, to his credit his teams don't give up when they're behind. That is something that has certainly helped our NET. But if we're going to reach the Tournament this year then we need every bit of help we can get. Build a culture around blowing teams out, not just winning. Every single game is a potential NET boost if we can live up to "40 Minutes of Hell".
1. Lack of winning enough games (obviously, this is the biggest issue)
2. Our poor OOC schedules both in regards to opponents and lack of neutral/away games (discussed plenty)
3. Our inability to blow teams out, critical for offensive/defensive efficiencies. I believe the team has let up some in basically every single game this year with around 10 minutes to go in the second half, and that has been awful for our NET. The Georgetown game is a good example of a game where we could've won by 30 and really helped our NET. Granted we still won by 19 and our NET did go up, but it could've gone up much more. Same was true for DePaul where we only won by 5 and nearly every other game we won this season.
Here's an example of how important it is to never let us: #131 Butler at #6 Villanova. Now, you might be thinking that given Villanova is home vs an awful team that even winning would hurt them (or at best keep them around #6), right? And that Butler being on the road vs the #6 team would have to help them? Wrong. Villanova destroyed Butler 82-42, and afterwards actually improved 3 spots to #3 (huge movement given how high they're ranked), and Butler dropped 15 spots to #146. I'm certain Wright knows how to gain NET, because he didn't take his starters out for almost the entire game.
You'd think with CMA's system (lots of players/fresh legs) it'd be more common for them to blow teams out, but that hasn't been the case since game 1 (vs one of the worst teams in D1). That was the only game this entire year that we won by more than 21, and frankly given our weak schedule we should've won at least 3-5 games by 21+. I'm not sure if CMA is aware of the importance of playing a full 40 minutes even when the game is out of reach for the opposing team, but he should be. It's not only about winning or losing, it's about how you win or lose. Now, to his credit his teams don't give up when they're behind. That is something that has certainly helped our NET. But if we're going to reach the Tournament this year then we need every bit of help we can get. Build a culture around blowing teams out, not just winning. Every single game is a potential NET boost if we can live up to "40 Minutes of Hell".
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Room112 post=451173 said:
Yes that is true, exact margins no matter longer. Overall number of points scored/given up does matter, though. The NET formula has only 2 metrics now (down from 5 last year):
The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home.
The second metric, "adjusted net efficiency rating", is essentially how many points a team scores and gives up (net points per 100 possessions). The exact margins no longer matter, but overall points given up and scored does matter.
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Well, the first of the two optimistic points from my above post was that we were only losing by small margins, which was slightly helping our NET against the better teams (@PC/UConn). That of course wasn't true last night, with our NET dropping from #98 to #104 despite us being on the road against a better opponent. Creighton, meanwhile, rose 9 spots from #59 to #50.
The second point, that we still have time to turn things around, is still true. It's getting harder and harder to believe that'll happen, though.
The second point, that we still have time to turn things around, is still true. It's getting harder and harder to believe that'll happen, though.
Paultzman post=453178 said:
Hate to say it, but there isn't much room available on our schedule (looks like 2-3 games per week for the remainder of the season). I absolutely agree though and St. John's needs to find a way to make it happen. If Marquette isn't willing to come to Queens then play at a neutral site near them (would be better for our NET anyways). Doesn't matter the circumstances, we just need another shot at a Q1/Q2 game. I'm also not really concerned about St. John's being tired if it's a couple days after a previous game based on how they responded to Hall yesterday. St. John's should be working to get this on our schedule immediately.
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Paultzman post=453178 wrote: Crucial to reschedule our Marquette canceled home game unless I missed something
Thursday February 10th looks like about only possibility. We have home games two days before and two days after that and Marquette is at UCONN two days before that so in the area anyway but they have to go to Butler on that Saturday so they'd miss a lot of classes that week; maybe that kills it. I don't see any other dates that could work for both schools.
Thursday February 10th looks like about only possibility. We have home games two days before and two days after that and Marquette is at UCONN two days before that so in the area anyway but they have to go to Butler on that Saturday so they'd miss a lot of classes that week; maybe that kills it. I don't see any other dates that could work for both schools.
St. John's remains at #91 after keeping the game @ #5 Nova within a decent margin.
PC is #31 but might move into Quad 1 territory (30) after beating #29 Marquette at home by 2. I wouldn't count on the game remaining Q1 on Selection Sunday (especially if we beat them), but worst case would be Q2.
More importantly, AP #17 PC will be ranked around #9-13 and a top 10/15 win could be a major boost for the Johnnies.
This is an absolute must win. Lose this and I don't even think the NIT would be likely. Can't believe I'm saying that in late January, but just win this one and go from there.
PC is #31 but might move into Quad 1 territory (30) after beating #29 Marquette at home by 2. I wouldn't count on the game remaining Q1 on Selection Sunday (especially if we beat them), but worst case would be Q2.
More importantly, AP #17 PC will be ranked around #9-13 and a top 10/15 win could be a major boost for the Johnnies.
This is an absolute must win. Lose this and I don't even think the NIT would be likely. Can't believe I'm saying that in late January, but just win this one and go from there.
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PC moved up one spot to #30, so if we win tomorrow then we'd have 2 Q1 wins... at least for a few hours until Providence would drop. Definitely could still be a Q1 win at the end of the season if PC continues to play well.
Right now more than anything we just need momentum, so a second Q1 win and AP top 15 win would be huge for the team.
Also the AP really doesn't like Providence. Despite them winning two games vs ranked opponents this past week (one on the road) and a bunch of teams in front of them losing, they only moved up two spots.
Right now more than anything we just need momentum, so a second Q1 win and AP top 15 win would be huge for the team.
Also the AP really doesn't like Providence. Despite them winning two games vs ranked opponents this past week (one on the road) and a bunch of teams in front of them losing, they only moved up two spots.
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We've dropped 4 spots this morning from 92 to 96.
Let's take a look at where the Big East teams were when the first rankings came out on 12/5/21 (vs today).
12/5/21 (vs 2/1/22):
#5 Villanova (#5) +0
#13 UConn (#17) -4
#21 Seton Hall (#41) -20
#30 Xavier (#18) +12
#37 Providence (#29) +8
#78 Marquette (#27) +51
#89 Creighton (#65) +24
#94 DePaul (#110) -16
#108 St. John's (#96) +12
#197 Butler (#132) +65
#247 Georgetown (#203) +44
Keep in mind these first rankings were from early December when OOC play was only halfway over and BE play of course hadn't started yet. That said, this is why I don't downplay early rankings, it's because they do tend to be pretty accurate and it's tough to dig yourself out of a hole when you're 100+ (I'm not sure that any team has done that this year).
Since 12/5/21 Marquette has had a BIG run into top 25 range and Creighton had a strong run into Tournament consideration. What's the reason for that? Marquette has an excellent coach and Creighton is super young and thus has improved throughout the year. Also, neither team was in nearly as bad a position as we were on 12/5/21.
St. John's, meanwhile, has been stagnant for this entire year. We have now won 1/8 Q1 games and 0/1 Q2 games with a #96 NET. That's the reality of how bad this team is. Sure, we probably should've won a couple more of our close games, whether that be due to bad luck or bad coaching/players, but even if we had a couple more wins we STILL wouldn't be in a good position. We may not even be within NIT range.
I miss the days when I thought our biggest issue was a weak OOC schedule holding us back. In reality #100, plus or minus 10 spots, is where this team has belonged for this entire season. Even a Marquette run may not be enough to save this team, and Shaka Smart isn't here anyway to make that happen.
This is such an unbelievably disappointing season on so many levels, even during previous mediocre seasons we almost always had at least one or two ranked wins by this point and strong incoming recruiting classes.
I assume CMA isn't going anywhere next year, so here's what I'd suggest: 1. keep as many pieces together as possible (last year was a complete failure in this regard) 2. schedule a decent to strong OOC next year. I really believe our weak OOC this year hurt the team's confidence very early on and we've never gotten over the hump. Imagine being this team knowing you had to beat KANSAS to have a good OOC despite only losing to Indiana on the road by 2? CMA set a poor tone since the day he penned his schedule and that tone has continued throughout the entire year. Give the team more chances early on for solid wins to start next year the right way. I still don't think the team will have enough talent based on his dreadful recruiting, but if you want to give the team a shot that's how it needs to be done. Be aggressive from the day the schedule is penned, don't schedule/play scared.
Let's take a look at where the Big East teams were when the first rankings came out on 12/5/21 (vs today).
12/5/21 (vs 2/1/22):
#5 Villanova (#5) +0
#13 UConn (#17) -4
#21 Seton Hall (#41) -20
#30 Xavier (#18) +12
#37 Providence (#29) +8
#78 Marquette (#27) +51
#89 Creighton (#65) +24
#94 DePaul (#110) -16
#108 St. John's (#96) +12
#197 Butler (#132) +65
#247 Georgetown (#203) +44
Keep in mind these first rankings were from early December when OOC play was only halfway over and BE play of course hadn't started yet. That said, this is why I don't downplay early rankings, it's because they do tend to be pretty accurate and it's tough to dig yourself out of a hole when you're 100+ (I'm not sure that any team has done that this year).
Since 12/5/21 Marquette has had a BIG run into top 25 range and Creighton had a strong run into Tournament consideration. What's the reason for that? Marquette has an excellent coach and Creighton is super young and thus has improved throughout the year. Also, neither team was in nearly as bad a position as we were on 12/5/21.
St. John's, meanwhile, has been stagnant for this entire year. We have now won 1/8 Q1 games and 0/1 Q2 games with a #96 NET. That's the reality of how bad this team is. Sure, we probably should've won a couple more of our close games, whether that be due to bad luck or bad coaching/players, but even if we had a couple more wins we STILL wouldn't be in a good position. We may not even be within NIT range.
I miss the days when I thought our biggest issue was a weak OOC schedule holding us back. In reality #100, plus or minus 10 spots, is where this team has belonged for this entire season. Even a Marquette run may not be enough to save this team, and Shaka Smart isn't here anyway to make that happen.
This is such an unbelievably disappointing season on so many levels, even during previous mediocre seasons we almost always had at least one or two ranked wins by this point and strong incoming recruiting classes.
I assume CMA isn't going anywhere next year, so here's what I'd suggest: 1. keep as many pieces together as possible (last year was a complete failure in this regard) 2. schedule a decent to strong OOC next year. I really believe our weak OOC this year hurt the team's confidence very early on and we've never gotten over the hump. Imagine being this team knowing you had to beat KANSAS to have a good OOC despite only losing to Indiana on the road by 2? CMA set a poor tone since the day he penned his schedule and that tone has continued throughout the entire year. Give the team more chances early on for solid wins to start next year the right way. I still don't think the team will have enough talent based on his dreadful recruiting, but if you want to give the team a shot that's how it needs to be done. Be aggressive from the day the schedule is penned, don't schedule/play scared.
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