Adam post=446437 said:DePaul moved up to #50 from #72 today after their big win at Louisville.
St. John's dropped 2 spots to #96.
It wasn't even that close. They dominated from start to finish.Adam post=446485 said:#82 Creighton is about to make a major move into Q1 (away) territory, beating #21 BYU by 12 on a neutral site.
From the OP, posted less than a week ago. Not sure if we'll reach #80 by tomorrow (before the Monmouth game our NET increased to #113, up from #108 in the OP), but think we'll be somewhere in the 80s. If we beat Pitt then I definitely think 10-10 Big East would get us in after how well the Big East has played over the past week. Great job by St. John's and the entire conference! It's been an excellent week.Adam post=445652 said:The Monmouth game is now HUGE and currently Q2. Win that and at least we'd be top 100. Win both games this week and our NET I think would improve to around #80, which is FAR more manageable heading into Big East play.
Personally, I think if we win our final 3 OOC games and go 10-10 during the Big East we would make the Tournament (but just barely... definitely not comfortably in and could also miss it). Much easier said than done, but with Monmouth playing better than expected and the Big East doing pretty well we could definitely still make it if we're good enough.
First things first: beat Monmouth.
Disagree with this. Losing any Q1 opportuntity is not good, especially if you have a weak non conference schedule. Best case scenario, you get a quality road Q1 win that gives you a huge jump in the NET and instantly puts you into the tournament conversation, worst case scenario you have a blowout loss on the road and have a small drop in NET. If any upcoming game needed to be cancelled it would be this upcoming Pitt game. Does very little to help your NET (if any) if you win and if you lose it knocks you down significantly in NET and gives you a Q4 loss on you record.Adam post=446906 said:Looks like there are 2 possibilities for Monday's game @ #24 NET Seton Hall.
1. They are short-handed and we'd have a better chance for an upset... a game where we would normally be double digit underdogs.
2. It's cancelled and it's like the game was never on our schedule.
Regarding #2, this wouldn't benefit us. Technically we'd get the win but it wouldn't help our NET or resume. All it'd do is give us an extra win in the Big East standings.
That said, we were very unlikely to win this game regardless. Yes, it's a Q1 game, but it's also a very tough Q1 road game. Most of the Big East is top 75 so most of our road games would be Q1 and also easier than this one.
Assuming the game is cancelled then it's yet another reason why we can't schedule poorly OOC going forward. It's no guarantee that the Big East will be as strong as it is this year, and even when it is we still have cancellations (just as we did last year). IF any game needed to be cancelled then this is one of the better ones I'd say (very low % chance to win), but let's just hope there aren't other cancellations going forward because we need as many Big East games as possible.
Adam post=449478 said:DePaul was a must win and we won. That's all that matters.
We were #108 in the OP before our recent 4 game stretch (Vs Monmouth, Colgate, Pitt & DePaul). All 4 were decent opponents but also must wins and we won 3... so we're in basically the same place now as we were a few weeks ago with a #104 NET. Technically that's progress as we've gained 4 spots, but overall a bit disappointing.
In the OP I said we'd likely need to go 10-10 in the Big East if we won our final 3 OOC games. Things are more complicated now with forfeits and all that, plus obviously the Pitt loss hurt... so I'm thinking 11 Big East wins gets us in (or 10 if a few games aren't played). Since we beat DePaul we're now looking at 10, that makes things a bit easier.
To be honest I don't think this team makes the Tournament. We'll have ample opportunity to, but I'm not convinced this team can win 10 more games. That said, IF we win tomorrow then that would change things dramatically. We'd finally get a Q1 win (guaranteed to remain Q1) and our NET would skyrocket into the 80's I'd say.
With Reeves likely being out, that at least somewhat offsets Champ being out for Pitt. Also, I'm not saying the team was lucky to get COVID after the Pitt game, but had we played a few more games without Champ we likely would've lost most of them. All teams are dealing with COVID, injuries, etc. and as frustrating as that Pitt game was we're fortunate that Champ only missed one game.
After these miserable last few weeks, I'm just glad the team will get a shot at (nearly) full-strength. I'm also glad we're finally playing a game that isn't a "must win". Most of the rest of the Big East games should be like that, unless of course we go into a multi-game skid. Win one of these next 2 (also @ UConn) and things would start looking up.