March Madness

After a mostly drama free day of bubble action (see my previous post- 11/16 games went our way), we now look to Friday...

Who to root FOR/against on Friday:
*WISCONSIN over Nebraska- Nebraska is starting to play their way onto the bubble.
*VCU over Rhode Island- we want VCU so the A10 doesn't have a bid thief.
*MICHIGAN ST over Ohio St- Ohio St is the 2nd #12 seed.
*LSU over Florida- Florida is the 4th #11 seed.
*UCF over Memphis- only the quarterfinal, but Memphis is the biggest bid thief threat in the AAC.
*ST. JOE'S over Davidson- only the quarterfinal, but Davidson is the biggest bid thief threat in the A10.
*BUFFALO over Central Michigan- we want Buffalo so the MAC doesn't have a bid thief.
*VILLANOVA over Xavier- we want Nova to remain a Q1 win. Currently their NET is #25 (needs to stay within top 30). Also, can't let Xavier become a bid thief.
*KENTUCKY over Alabama- Alabama is the 6th team OUT.
*PURDUE over Minnesota- Minnesota is the 3rd #10 seed.
*NEVADA over San Diego St- we want Nevada so the MW doesn't have a bid thief.
*KANSAS over Wvu- this is the semifinals, can't let WVU win 2 more and become a bid thief.
*MARQUETTE over Seton Hall- we want Marquette to remain a Q1 win. Before today, their NET was #29 (needs to stay top 30).
*WICHITA ST over Temple- Temple is the 5th (play in) #11 seed.
*WASHINGTON over Colorado St- we want UW so the Pac doesn't have a bid thief.
*OREGON over Arizona St- Arizona St is the 3rd #11 seed. If you want to play it safe and assume Arizona St is already in, then root for them (and Washington) to avoid a Pac bid thief. I don't think ASU is in yet, though.
*UTAH ST over Fresno St- we want Utah St so the MW doesn't have a bid thief.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

This hasn't been updated yet after the Marquette game, but they have us as the 1st #11 seed, so we are "in the field" by 7 spots. 100/119 analysts have us IN. Note, the final #12 seed was stolen by St. Mary's.

Keep in mind, Bracket Matrix hasn't been updated with today's results yet, BUT there is some good news:

The last two teams "IN" are Indiana and Ohio St. The first 8 "OUT" are Texas, Creighton, Clemson, Belmont, Georgetown, Toledo, UNC Greensboro, and Alabama. Of those 10 teams, Ohio St and Alabama are the ONLY teams still playing.

Now, that said, there are still plenty of bid thieves in play. We also don't know if the Committee will respect us as much as Bracket Matrix does.

3 days to go. Hang tight.
 
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I think we are OUT. Our biggest resume strength - 2 wins over Marquette - was partially negated by last night's demolition. The earlier wins look like a fluke. So we go in losers of 4/5, all by more than 10 points, with the lone win over the conference's last place team. Our NET is higher than most other bubble teams. Bad year for NET to be introduced. Fair or not, all the subjective indicators point negative for us right now. It would be very easy for the committee to leave us out. We have to hope that 20+ wins and a forgiving bubble are enough. Maybe we'll get the play-in game.
 
[quote="Adam" post=330679]Hoping our NET doesn't end up in the 70s after that performance, I can't remember any RPI teams in the 70s getting in the past 10-15 years. We are really making things tough with EVERY loss being a 10+ point blowout. Our advanced metrics are truly awful- Kenpom has us at #78. Syracuse I think last year or the year before got in with an RPI around #65.

Heading into today we were #64, so I don't think we'll drop 6+ spots. I'll guess our NET will be #68 tomorrow. We did drop 10 points for our home loss to Xavier (BET counts as home, too), but of course Marquette is better than Xavier.

On the bright side, our home win against them should remain Q1. We did a great job tonight of keeping their NET within the top 30...[/quote]

One thing of note about the NET. There are plenty of teams ahead of us in the NET who likely won't be making the tournament. So our net isn't a sole indicator of in or out. Teams ahead of us in NET who likely won't make tourney:

Clemson, Belmont?, Lipscomb, Penn St, Temple?, TCU, Penn St, Indiana, Nebraska, Memphis, Creighton, Oregon, UNC Greensboro, Alabama?, Toledo, Arkansas.

This isn't to prove we won't make it. It proves we're projected as being in the field despite our NET being lower than teams who are projected as out.
 
[quote="SEED" post=330685]I think we are OUT. Our biggest resume strength - 2 wins over Marquette - was partially negated by last night's demolition. The earlier wins look like a fluke. So we go in losers of 4/5, all by more than 10 points, with the lone win over the conference's last place team. Our NET is higher than most other bubble teams. Bad year for NET to be introduced. Fair or not, all the subjective indicators point negative for us right now. It would be very easy for the committee to leave us out. We have to hope that 20+ wins and a forgiving bubble are enough. Maybe we'll get the play-in game.[/quote] We beat them twice, that can’t be a fluke. I think we were dead tired last night. I also think the victory against DePaul got us in. Can only hope we play w the energy we did during the DePaul game. We will be well rested.
 
[quote="Redmenguy" post=330744]also, I can're remember a BE team with 20 overall wins not making it in ?[/quote]

Marq last yr I think lol
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=330771][quote="Redmenguy" post=330744]also, I can're remember a BE team with 20 overall wins not making it in ?[/quote]

Marq last yr I think lol[/quote]

Actually, it's recently happened twice to Marquette.... '15-'16 (when they played a massively weak OOC schedule, if I recall) and last season.
 
A big development in the A-10 Tournament. Marcus Evans for VCU (A-10 1st team All-Conference) is down holding his knee. You can hear a pin drop in the arena as he is lying on the court hollerin'. A big loss for VCU, although they are fairly deep.
 
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[quote="richard A Steinfeld" post=330770][quote="SEED" post=330685]I think we are OUT. Our biggest resume strength - 2 wins over Marquette - was partially negated by last night's demolition. The earlier wins look like a fluke. So we go in losers of 4/5, all by more than 10 points, with the lone win over the conference's last place team. Our NET is higher than most other bubble teams. Bad year for NET to be introduced. Fair or not, all the subjective indicators point negative for us right now. It would be very easy for the committee to leave us out. We have to hope that 20+ wins and a forgiving bubble are enough. Maybe we'll get the play-in game.[/quote] We beat them twice, that can’t be a fluke. I think we were dead tired last night. I also think the victory against DePaul got us in. Can only hope we play w the energy we did during the DePaul game. We will be well rested.[/quote]
Yes it's not really a fluke that we beat Marquette twice. Wins should count equally no matter when or how we got them. And we played pretty well in those games as well as in several other big wins. But unconsciously or emotionally I think last night's loss creates the impression that we are not the same team right now that we were when we beat Marquette twice. The loss poked a hole in our biggest selling point.
 
Lunardi has been especially tough on us all year, but he has a new bracket today after the loss last night and we are IN and not even in a play in game. We are an 11 seed
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=330810]Lunardi has been especially tough on us all year, but he has a new bracket today after the loss last night and we are IN and not even in a play in game. We are an 11 seed[/quote]

I think we are in - now if there are more bid thieves - I'm looking at you A-10 and VCU who just lost their best player - we move to Dayton. I don't think there are enough potential bid thieves to completely knock us out.

IMO
 
Ugh, A10 might get a bid thief... VCU down 5 with 9 to go.

They were the most likely conference to, so not end of the world. Also, at least we won't need to watch this awful A10 tournament any longer.

OSU and Florida are losing, which is really important. Both are near us on Bracket Matrix.
 
Assuming the A10 is the last bid thief conference we should be alright.

Need Xavier to lose tonight. Need West Virginia to lose tonight. Need Alabama to lose tonight. Need Memphis to lose today. Need Nebraska to lose today.

Those are probably all the biggest threats to be bid thief’s and they are all sizable underdogs today
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=330829]Assuming the A10 is the last bid thief conference we should be alright.

Need Xavier to lose tonight. Need West Virginia to lose tonight. Need Alabama to lose tonight. Need Memphis to lose today. Need Nebraska to lose today.

Those are probably all the biggest threats to be bid thief’s and they are all sizable underdogs today[/quote]

If there is only one more bid thief (A10), that'd be great. Just not convinced yet there will only be one.

VCU still in the game, but will be tough to win this and then the next 2.
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=330829]Assuming the A10 is the last bid thief conference we should be alright. [/quote]

Still a load of time left in the game, but a bid thief is certainly looming. Rhode Island up by 4 with 6:07 remaining.
 
Surprised to see that Isaac Vann #23 on VCU only averaged 11 points this year. I was at the game against us at Barclays and he lit us up and looked like their go to guy. Thought he looked like an 18 PPG kind of guy not 11
 
St. John's fell a few spots on BM...

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Now the final #11 seed. Florida 1 spot ahead of us, Ohio St 1 spot behind us. Root hard against both of them.

That performance last night really hurt us. Can't get blown out like that on our home court, happened way too many times this year.
 
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