Kansas St., Sat., Dec. 7, 11:30am, FOX

[Silly Donovan]

So - and not intended as being argumentative, just something that stuck out to me - In 19 minutes while scoring 3 points and collecting zero assists and zero rebounds Dunlap was -1. In 22 minutes while scoring 5 points and with 9 (!) rebounds and 3 assists Smith was +1.

What do we make of that? Defense? Who they were on the floor with and when?

Plus/minus in basketball has always been a strange stat to me. My own back-of-the-envelope method is to give you the points you score, one point for positive things that relate to possession (rebounds, steals), minus one point for negative things that relate to possession (turnovers), and two points for things that relate directly to points (assists, blocks). Obviously that doesn't consider many aspects of defense.

But by my (totally amateur) metric, on that stats above Dunlap would get a 3 and Smith would get a 20 (17 point difference) but the plus/minus is a 2 point difference. Does that mean Dunlap's defense is a plus 15 as compared to Smith? Not to my eye, which is all I have for defense (since I am not sold on any of the defense metrics I've seen).

There are so many advanced metrics in basketball these days that I don't know what to make of anything. But I've always felt that plus/minus is overrated in basketball. Hockey is another story.

Correction….. Dunlap had 3 points.

 

[lawmanfan]

Correction….. Dunlap had 3 points.

You're correctly my accurate statement that Dunlap had 3 points? Thanks.

 

[Silly Donovan]

You're correctly my accurate statement that Dunlap had 3 points? Thanks.

Sorry but your statement initially said 5 points. No problem

 

[tom in salem]

How many would you play?

Which is plenty. To the poster who laughed at my 7 man rotation, we currently have 7 guys averaging 10 minutes or more a game. One of those players is Dunlap @ 17 mpg. Give those minutes to Prey, who's only averaging 6 mpg, and there's your 7 man rotation. Nobody tires and our chances of winning increase exponentially.

yukon only had 6 guys play 10+ minutes tonight. See, it's possible.

UConn 76-65 Texas (Dec 8, 2024) Box Score - ESPN

Box score for the UConn Huskies vs. Texas Longhorns NCAAM game from December 8, 2024 on ESPN. Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.

www.espn.com

 

[lawmanfan]

Sorry but your statement initially said 5 points. No problem

You're missing the period after the Dunlap sentence - the 5 points is in the Smith sentence as part of his stats. But it was not well-drafted and I can see how in that form it would lead to confusion.

 

[IDRAFT]

Hausen showed a lot more than just being a spot up shooter offensively IMO.

So - and not intended as being argumentative, just something that stuck out to me - In 19 minutes while scoring 3 points and collecting zero assists and zero rebounds Dunlap was -1. In 22 minutes while scoring 5 points and with 9 (!) rebounds and 3 assists Smith was +1.

What do we make of that? Defense? Who they were on the floor with and when?

Plus/minus in basketball has always been a strange stat to me. My own back-of-the-envelope method is to give you the points you score, one point for positive things that relate to possession (rebounds, steals), minus one point for negative things that relate to possession (turnovers), and two points for things that relate directly to points (assists, blocks). Obviously that doesn't consider many aspects of defense.

But by my (totally amateur) metric, on that stats above Dunlap would get a 3 and Smith would get a 20 (17 point difference) but the plus/minus is a 2 point difference. Does that mean Dunlap's defense is a plus 15 as compared to Smith? Not to my eye, which is all I have for defense (since I am not sold on any of the defense metrics I've seen).

There are so many advanced metrics in basketball these days that I don't know what to make of anything. But I've always felt that plus/minus is overrated in basketball. Hockey is another story.

I am not sure if you are questioning how it is calculated, but if so, I believe it is as simple as the point differential for the minutes you are on the floor.

 

[austour]

Brady's an awesome teammate and tremendous hustler, But he needs to start knocking down shots on a consistent basis.

Agree and I know there's 7 more pages to read so my comments might be redundant but here they are. Dunlap is clearly a basket ball player. We'll coached and good bb iq. He makes few if any smdh plays. His physical limitations will keep him from becoming a high level power conference player though. Step too slow both physically most of the time. I was hoping he could fill the keep the d honest role and help spread the floor given the rep coming in. If he can't do that the negatives outweigh the positives fir a high minutes player. I would cut his minutes 30-40% until he becomes a consistent shooter.

 

[RM86]

Agree and I know there's 7 more pages to read so my comments might be redundant but here they are. Dunlap is clearly a basket ball player. We'll coached and good bb iq. He makes few if any smdh plays. His physical limitations will keep him from becoming a high level power conference player though. Step too slow both physically most of the time. I was hoping he could fill the keep the d honest role and help spread the floor given the rep coming in. If he can't do that the negatives outweigh the positives fir a high minutes player. I would cut his minutes 30-40% until he becomes a consistent shooter.

BB IQ is the key part of what you said, some of our guys are lacking in that. From my seat it looked like Pitino was going to have a coronary with some of the decision making with a big league. I believe he pulled RJ after and an advised forced pass. The IQ part may play a part in how some of these conference games turn out.

 

[lawmanfan]

I am not sure if you are questioning how it is calculated, but if so, I believe it is as simple as the point differential for the minutes you are on the floor.

Thanks - I understand how plus/minus is calculated. I'm just not sure I know how it should be applied - if at all - in the context of basketball.

My example was that if you look at +/- from the K State game Dunlap's only stat was 3 points whereas Smith had 5 points, 9 boards, and 3 assists and yet their plus/minus was fairly identical. Which makes one (or at least me) wonder about the value of plus/minus in basketball if your individual stats are so seemingly irrelevant to that outcome - understanding that defense is hard to measure but in this case I don't think Dunlap's defense is that much better than Smith's (if at all) to make up for all the other stat-sheet differences.

So I come down on "plus minus is mostly irrelevant in basketball," though I am open to being persuaded otherwise. But I have now gone too far down this particular statistical rabbit hole and I blame DK for that.

 

[IDRAFT]

Thanks - I understand how plus/minus is calculated. I'm just not sure I know how it should be applied - if at all - in the context of basketball.

My example was that if you look at +/- from the K State game Dunlap's only stat was 3 points whereas Smith had 5 points, 9 boards, and 3 assists and yet their plus/minus was fairly identical. Which makes one (or at least me) wonder about the value of plus/minus in basketball if your individual stats are so seemingly irrelevant to that outcome - understanding that defense is hard to measure but in this case I don't think Dunlap's defense is that much better than Smith's (if at all) to make up for all the other stat-sheet differences.

So I come down on "plus minus is mostly irrelevant in basketball," though I open to being persuaded otherwise. But I have now gone too far down this particular statistical rabbit hole and I blame DK for that.

I thought you did but wasn't sure.

 

[rutld1]

I’m tnot ltym

 

[rlogazino]

Thanks - I understand how plus/minus is calculated. I'm just not sure I know how it should be applied - if at all - in the context of basketball.

My example was that if you look at +/- from the K State game Dunlap's only stat was 3 points whereas Smith had 5 points, 9 boards, and 3 assists and yet their plus/minus was fairly identical. Which makes one (or at least me) wonder about the value of plus/minus in basketball if your individual stats are so seemingly irrelevant to that outcome - understanding that defense is hard to measure but in this case I don't think Dunlap's defense is that much better than Smith's (if at all) to make up for all the other stat-sheet differences.

So I come down on "plus minus is mostly irrelevant in basketball," though I am open to being persuaded otherwise. But I have now gone too far down this particular statistical rabbit hole and I blame DK for that.

In my opinion, +/- is just one stat that when combined with others tells a larger story. In a season, I think it becomes clearer too. However, if you look at Smith’s advanced metrics you will see why his +/- might have been a little as shown here: https://www.barttorvik.com/box.php?muid=Kansas+St.St.+John's12-7&year=2025

His offensive rating was barely above average (100 is average) and he lead to 1/6 of our turnovers even though he was our best defensive rebounder. He probably also had bad defensive metrics which aren’t captured. I wish a website tracked Win Shares. Maybe EvanMiya does but I haven’t subscribed there.

 

[MugCostanza]

In my opinion, +/- is just one stat that when combined with others tells a larger story. In a season, I think it becomes clearer too. However, if you look at Smith’s advanced metrics you will see why his +/- might have been a little as shown here: https://www.barttorvik.com/box.php?muid=Kansas+St.St.+John's12-7&year=2025

His offensive rating was barely above average (100 is average) and he lead to 1/6 of our turnovers even though he was our best defensive rebounder. He probably also had bad defensive metrics which aren’t captured. I wish a website tracked Win Shares. Maybe EvanMiya does but I haven’t subscribed there.

https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?autoOffQuery=true&baseQuery=&filterGarbage=true&gender=Men&maxRank=200&minRank=0&offQuery=NOT%20%28%22Richmond%2C%20Kadary%22%20%29&onQuery=%22Richmond%2C%20Kadary%22%20&team=St.%20John%27s%20%28NY%29&year=2024%2F25&

What I use to get a better understanding of a player's on/off splits

 

[Amaseinyourface]

https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?autoOffQuery=true&baseQuery=&filterGarbage=true&gender=Men&maxRank=200&minRank=0&offQuery=NOT%20%28%22Richmond%2C%20Kadary%22%20%29&onQuery=%22Richmond%2C%20Kadary%22%20&team=St.%20John%27s%20%28NY%29&year=2024%2F25&

What I use to get a better understanding of a player's on/off splits

Contrasting data here

With Richmond on the court:
- Luis is shooting 51% EFG%
- Scott is shooting 64% EFG%

with Richmond off the court:
- Luis is shooting 14% EFG%
- Scott is shooting 11% EFG%

Those two benefit greatly from him. But

With Richmond on the court:
- Smith is shooting 47% EFG%
- Wilcher is shooting 45 EFG%

With Richmond off the court:
- Smith is shooting 67% EFG%
- Wilcher in shooting 87% EFG%

These two not as much, tho their “on” numbers are by no means bad, just not as great as the “off”.

 

[Silly Donovan]

You're missing the period after the Dunlap sentence - the 5 points is in the Smith sentence as part of his stats. But it was not well-drafted and I can see how in that form it would lead to confusion.

Oh ok got ya. Guess I did miss it.

 

[mjmaherjr]

Contrasting data here

With Richmond on the court:
- Luis is shooting 51% EFG%
- Scott is shooting 64% EFG%

with Richmond off the court:
- Luis is shooting 14% EFG%
- Scott is shooting 11% EFG%

Those two benefit greatly from him. But

With Richmond on the court:
- Smith is shooting 47% EFG%
- Wilcher is shooting 45 EFG%

With Richmond off the court:
- Smith is shooting 67% EFG%
- Wilcher in shooting 87% EFG%

These two not as much, tho their “on” numbers are by no means bad, just not as great as the “off”.

also Smith Wilcher 2 are better at setting themselves up IMO

 

[MugCostanza]

Contrasting data here

With Richmond on the court:
- Luis is shooting 51% EFG%
- Scott is shooting 64% EFG%

with Richmond off the court:
- Luis is shooting 14% EFG%
- Scott is shooting 11% EFG%

Those two benefit greatly from him. But

With Richmond on the court:
- Smith is shooting 47% EFG%
- Wilcher is shooting 45 EFG%

With Richmond off the court:
- Smith is shooting 67% EFG%
- Wilcher in shooting 87% EFG%

These two not as much, tho their “on” numbers are by no means bad, just not as great as the “off”.

In that link I have the worst opponent capped at rank 200 so it’s excluding all the cupcakes we’ve played so far. The sample size with Kadary off with that restriction is way too low to draw reasonable conclusions at this point. That should become much more useful a month or so from now but still provides a decent look at which areas individual players are helping/hurting in

 

[paultzman]

In that link I have the worst opponent capped at rank 200 so it’s excluding all the cupcakes we’ve played so far. The sample size with Kadary off with that restriction is way too low to draw reasonable conclusions at this point. That should become much more useful a month or so from now but still provides a decent look at which areas individual players are helping/hurting in

Great stuff Mug. Are there credible stats re individual defensive effectiveness?. I am not Smith’s agent, but my feel is he impacts the game more on D than his guard peers. (His on ball D especially) To me that is a critical component since Pitino often references D as pivotal part of any success the team will achieve. Guard defensive rebounding is an additional important issue.

 

[MugCostanza]

Great stuff Mug. Are there credible stats re individual defensive effectiveness?. I am not Smith’s agent, but my feel is he impacts the game more on D than his guard peers. (His on ball D especially) To me that is a critical component since Pitino often references D as pivotal part of any success the team will achieve. Guard defensive rebounding is an additional important issue.

Very difficult to get a gauge on individual defensive metrics. Both EvanMiya and BartTorvik try it but have conflicting results so far this season.

Evan Miya has something called DBPR which has Deivon as the 6th best defensive player on the team out of the 8 guys that have played at least 100 possessions.

Bart Torvik has DBPM which has Smith first on the team.

The general consensus among CBB data nerds is that Evan Miya’s individual player defensive metrics are most accurate but idk if I agree

 

[SJU61982]