Final 5 Games

[quote="Knight" post=323971][quote="Sherman, Sheridan & Grant" post=323962][quote="Room112" post=323944][quote="Matty Hoops" post=323936]Most likely outcomes ranked in order:
3-2
2-3
4-1
5-0
1-4[/quote]

Agreed. And in my opinion, most on here are setting themselves up to be disappointed! With the way the team has been Jekyl and Hyde all year, it's not realistic to EXPECT to win games we should. To me, every game is a possible loss aside from home vs Xavier. Road games are never a gimme no matter who you're playing, and we have 3 left. And Seton Hall is one of the better teams in the Big East.

So I look at it as 4 coin flips and a win. I prefer to remain level headed and see where it goes. Haven't we realized what getting too high or too low does to us?? B)[/quote]

Nice 112
It’s a cliche but one game at a time and not beat the remaining schedule to death...
I’d be happy w 20 Ws
I’d be happy w an invite to the Dance
After the last two decades I’m
not greedy
And for now the total focus must be the very next game
Go Storm - “March” onward

W.T. Sherman[/quote]

In past years if we had the talent level of the current PC, Depaul and Xavier we would have been expecting losses against a team with the current talent of our current SJU. Now that the tables are turned, I am expecting wins. Good teams beat bad teams. I throw in 1 loss because 5-0 is a tough task. How will we do in the tourney if we cannot beat X & SH at home and Depaul on the road. We need to start aiming higher.
 
mjmaherjr wrote: Man Up and win 5

Mjm - hope you're right, and especially hope they win tomorrow night when you guys are there rooting us on and also on Saturday night since the Hall (and the refs) owe(s) us big time!
 
If this team can finally show some consistency and win the games they're supposed to win against mediocre competition, they will head into next Monday not only having punched their ticket but also will have climbed back into the Top 25.
They played their last legit good opponent of the regular season on sunday. They should sweep the rest of their games. But just cant make any predictions with this team.
 
[quote="espken" post=323964][quote="RyGuyRedStorm" post=323951]We’ve had a losing record three years in a row. Last year we were 4-14 in conference. Now we’re not satisfied with going 3-2, getting a 22 win season, winning record in conference and making the tournament?

Perspective around here is a weird combination of way too long and way too short.

We get 3 games and I’m thrilled. Especially given matchup nightmares with Providence and DePaul.[/quote]

How often do we get a special player like Shamorie? We've got two very skilled players in Heron and LJ, and 2 very serviceable guys in Clark and Simon. Of the 5 games, 3 are against teams we've lost to, so that is motivation enough and the other 2 are against a 13-13 team. If we are worried about matchups against Providence and DePaul, how can we expect to complete in the NCAAs?[/quote]

Agree on all points but the fact is we should be worried about providence and DePaul, both of whom beat us soundly on our home court. Yes we were missing pieces, but think we have all have seen that this team has had lots of ups and downs so to just expect them to win these games seems like a stretch. The guys need to bring it every game here on out.

If we can take 4 that’s huge and it’s certainly possible. Hopefully the win on Sunday turned a corner.
 
This should be the year St. John’s becomes relevant again with a strong winning record, not limp to a finish and settle for a 9-12 seed.
2015-16 and 2016-17 were years that we knew would be disappointing and embarrassing.
Last year, initially, was supposed to be the year we achieved moderate success with March Madness a possibility.
To now say, that because of Jekyl & Hyde proclivities this year, we shouldn’t expect to finish 3rd regular season and maybe win the BET reeks of defeatism to me.
I rank 5-0 as achievable, 4-1 as reasonable to expect, 3-2 as disappointing, and anything less as embarrassing.
Period..
I will not be ‘satisified’ with making the Dance as a 9-10 seed and exiting in the first round.
Never.
 
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Just wanted to say that of course we should root for us to go 5-0, but there are a few people (especially on Twitter) who say that is the expectation. 5-0 is definitely not the expectation, by any measure.

For starters, tomorrow we are one point underdogs. For the other 4 games, we will have anywhere from 55-80% odds of winning each game individually.

Our odds of winning I'd estimate will be:
@ Providence: 45%
Vs Seton Hall: 65%
Vs Xavier: 80%
@ DePaul: 55%
@ Xavier: 55%

So no, we aren't expected to go 5-0. We'll likely be favored in 4 games, however going by percentages (mostly very close to 50%) 3-2 is the most likely outcome.

Let's root hard and hope to win all 5, but if you expect us to go better than 3-2 then you may be setting yourself up for disappointment.

Just a reality check after the Nova game. I don't mean to be a damper, as going 3-2 ( 10-8 ) would be an excellent finish in my book when you factor in the last couple weeks. We were 2 games under .500 just a couple weeks ago, and since then have won 4/5 Big East games.
 
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[quote="Adam" post=323990]Just wanted to say that of course we should root for us to go 5-0, but there are a few people (especially on Twitter) who say that is the expectation. 5-0 is definitely not the expectation, by any measure.

For starters, tomorrow we are one point underdogs. For the other 4 games, we will have anywhere from 55-80% odds of winning each game individually.

Our odds of winning I'd estimate will be:
@ Providence: 45%
Vs Seton Hall: 65%
Vs Xavier: 80%
@ DePaul: 55%
@ Xavier: 55%

So no, we aren't expected to go 5-0. We'll likely be favored in 4 games, however going by percentages (mostly very close to 50%) 3-2 is the most likely outcome.

Let's root hard and hope to win all 5, but if you expect us to go better than 3-2 then you may be setting yourself up for disappointment.

Just a reality check after the Nova game. I don't mean to be a damper, as going 3-2 ( 10-8 ) would be an excellent finish in my book when you factor in the last couple weeks. We were 2 games under .500 just a couple weeks ago.[/quote]

3-2 would be disappointing imo, because it’d likely mean the Hall finishes ahead of us and I doubt we’d be better than a 9 seed, unless we won the BET.
Not ‘expecting’ 5-0, but that is readily achievable imo IF our starters are healthy.
I do ‘expect’ 4-1 and would be disappointed with 3-2.
It’s not like the NCAA will give us ‘credit’ either for the Hall theft or when Ponds and Heron are not playing.
But IF our guys are healthy, hey, run-the-table.
 
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[quote="Chicago Days" post=323991][quote="Adam" post=323990]Just wanted to say that of course we should root for us to go 5-0, but there are a few people (especially on Twitter) who say that is the expectation. 5-0 is definitely not the expectation, by any measure.

For starters, tomorrow we are one point underdogs. For the other 4 games, we will have anywhere from 55-80% odds of winning each game individually.

Our odds of winning I'd estimate will be:
@ Providence: 45%
Vs Seton Hall: 65%
Vs Xavier: 80%
@ DePaul: 55%
@ Xavier: 55%

So no, we aren't expected to go 5-0. We'll likely be favored in 4 games, however going by percentages (mostly very close to 50%) 3-2 is the most likely outcome.

Let's root hard and hope to win all 5, but if you expect us to go better than 3-2 then you may be setting yourself up for disappointment.

Just a reality check after the Nova game. I don't mean to be a damper, as going 3-2 ( 10-8 ) would be an excellent finish in my book when you factor in the last couple weeks. We were 2 games under .500 just a couple weeks ago.[/quote]

3-2 would be disappointing imo, because it’d likely mean the Hall finishes ahead of us and I doubt we’d be better than a 9 seed, unless we won the BET.
Not ‘expecting’ 5-0, but that is readily achievable imo IF our starters are healthy.
I do ‘expect’ 4-1 and would be disappointed with 3-2.
It’s not like the NCAA will give us ‘credit’ either for the Hall theft or when Ponds and Heron are not playing.
But IF our guys are healthy, hey, run-the-table.[/quote]

Ok, well you can set your expectations to whatever. I'm just saying that statistically speaking, 3-2 is the most likely outcome. Given that we just went 4-1 (with 3 Q1 wins) in our Big East games and were expected to go 2-3 (losses @Creighton, @Marquette, Vs Nova), we're already pretty fortunate to be doing this well in bracketology. Just a week ago it was doubtful if we'd make it.

We could definitely be a 7 seed if we finish 3-2 (and win a BET game or two). Bracket Matrix isn't fully updated after our Nova win, but we're currently an 8 seed on that (probably a 7 seed after more brackets are updated). If we're a 7 seed now (at one game above .500), then going 3-2 and finishing two games above .500 probably won't drop us... especially if we can win a BET game or two.
 
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[quote="Jack Williams" post=323929]now that i know we are most likely going to the tournament, the fan in me wants us to be in the best position possible to make a second weekend run. In this case, that means getting to the 6 line. 4-1 with run in the BET or 5-0 plus one win in BET is probably the best way to become a 6 seed so i will be hoping for that.

Agree with the comment about Seton hall. If we go 3-2, or worse, make sure one of the wins is the game saturday[/quote]

Jack, are you happy with "likely"? I'm not, I say just win every game, so the ncaa can't screw you.
No regrets, and let it all hang out every game.

You cannot get swept by PC, and DePaul, and SHU, well we all the ref pos stephens gave them that game.
Every day/night my insides would be killing me thinking about us getting robbed. You definitely without a shout of a doubt GOTTA BEAT SHU. Maybe split vs. X

Better yet, just roll everyone, win the BE Tourny in OUR HOUSE.
Then they'll be playing in the biggest stage of their lives.

NO REGRETS.
 
[quote="Moose" post=323961][quote="Room112" post=323944][quote="Matty Hoops" post=323936]Most likely outcomes ranked in order:
3-2
2-3
4-1
5-0
1-4[/quote]

Agreed. And in my opinion, most on here are setting themselves up to be disappointed! With the way the team has been Jekyl and Hyde all year, it's not realistic to EXPECT to win games we should. To me, every game is a possible loss aside from home vs Xavier. Road games are never a gimme no matter who you're playing, and we have 3 left. And Seton Hall is one of the better teams in the Big East.

So I look at it as 4 coin flips and a win. I prefer to remain level headed and see where it goes. Haven't we realized what getting too high or too low does to us?? B)[/quote]

Respect your opinion but if that's the case then we really aren't as good as we are all pretending.[/quote]

I dunno, maybe I don't think we're that good. I've certainly lowered my expectations based on how the season has played out. We've lost too many games we should have won. All it takes is a bad shooting night, which has happened way too often. The way I see it, we have the upside to beat most teams on any given night but certainly capable of also losing to most solid teams.
 
All I care about these last 5 is not getting swept. That happens to work out to 4-1.

I want to do some damage in the Big East tournament after that. We haven’t even threatened to go far in many years.
 
Curiously, RealTimeRPI has us going 2-3, with us winning only our two remaining home games.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_163_Men.html

I can't see that happening, we will pick off at least one of the road games. Regardless, I would personally rank the likelihood this way, only because road wins for in-conference games are never easy, no matter who the opponent is:

3-2 50%
4-1 30%
2-3 20%
5-0 9%
0-5 1%
 
The only things consistent about this team are our inconsistency and unpredictability. Expecting either 3-2 or 2-3. Obviously hoping like hell for 5-0, but that’s a pipe dream based on our past performances, mysterious injury history and lack of margin for error. Don’t ask me who I think we’ll beat and who we’ll loose to, I have no clue. Yeah the Nova win was great, but still tempering expectations moving forward.
 
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And for everyone talking about the BE Tournament. We need the highest seed possible to avoid playing extra games and we need whatever time window gives us the longest rest as well. If we are going to trot 5 guys out there playing 35 mpg its going to be hard to win all those games on back to back nights with no rest.
 
[quote="PharmaJohnny" post=324006]Curiously, RealTimeRPI has us going 2-3, with us winning only our two remaining home games.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_163_Men.html

I can't see that happening, we will pick off at least one of the road games. Regardless, I would personally rank the likelihood this way, only because road wins for in-conference games are never easy, no matter who the opponent is:

3-2 50%
4-1 30%
2-3 20%
5-0 9%
0-5 1%[/quote]

I wouldnt put much stock in RealTimeRPI projections. I've followed them for awhile and typically they assume every road game will be a loss.
 
[quote="Moose" post=324015]And for everyone talking about the BE Tournament. We need the highest seed possible to avoid playing extra games and we need whatever time window gives us the longest rest as well. If we are going to trot 5 guys out there playing 35 mpg its going to be hard to win all those games on back to back nights with no rest.[/quote]

I was actually just looking at the bracket. It seems like our Thursday Quarterfinal game would either be at 2:30 for the 4/5 matchup or 9:30 for the 3/6 matchup. Then the next day the semifinals are at 630 and 9.
 
[quote="Moose" post=323891]All 5 are very winnable.

Is it wrong to be disappointed with 3 wins?[/quote] The problem is all 5 are also losable. We have been following good wins w bad losses. Ill take 3 wins.
 
[quote="Adam" post=323993][quote="Chicago Days" post=323991][quote="Adam" post=323990]Just wanted to say that of course we should root for us to go 5-0, but there are a few people (especially on Twitter) who say that is the expectation. 5-0 is definitely not the expectation, by any measure.

For starters, tomorrow we are one point underdogs. For the other 4 games, we will have anywhere from 55-80% odds of winning each game individually.

Our odds of winning I'd estimate will be:
@ Providence: 45%
Vs Seton Hall: 65%
Vs Xavier: 80%
@ DePaul: 55%
@ Xavier: 55%

So no, we aren't expected to go 5-0. We'll likely be favored in 4 games, however going by percentages (mostly very close to 50%) 3-2 is the most likely outcome.

Let's root hard and hope to win all 5, but if you expect us to go better than 3-2 then you may be setting yourself up for disappointment.

Just a reality check after the Nova game. I don't mean to be a damper, as going 3-2 ( 10-8 ) would be an excellent finish in my book when you factor in the last couple weeks. We were 2 games under .500 just a couple weeks ago.[/quote]

3-2 would be disappointing imo, because it’d likely mean the Hall finishes ahead of us and I doubt we’d be better than a 9 seed, unless we won the BET.
Not ‘expecting’ 5-0, but that is readily achievable imo IF our starters are healthy.
I do ‘expect’ 4-1 and would be disappointed with 3-2.
It’s not like the NCAA will give us ‘credit’ either for the Hall theft or when Ponds and Heron are not playing.
But IF our guys are healthy, hey, run-the-table.[/quote]

Ok, well you can set your expectations to whatever. I'm just saying that statistically speaking, 3-2 is the most likely outcome. Given that we just went 4-1 (with 3 Q1 wins) in our Big East games and were expected to go 2-3 (losses @Creighton, @Marquette, Vs Nova), we're already pretty fortunate to be doing this well in bracketology. Just a week ago it was doubtful if we'd make it.

We could definitely be a 7 seed if we finish 3-2 (and win a BET game or two). Bracket Matrix isn't fully updated after our Nova win, but we're currently an 8 seed on that (probably a 7 seed after more brackets are updated). If we're a 7 seed now (at one game above .500), then going 3-2 and finishing two games above .500 probably won't drop us... especially if we can win a BET game or two.[/quote]

Ok, my point is we should go better than 3-2 these next five games if our core 5 are healthy.
Because, if so, we’re clearly Top 3 in the Big East.
Truth is, as it is, we’re ‘4-1’ this year against Nova, Marquette and the Hall.
I also am not sure about the current ‘8 seed’ estimate, I’ve seen 9-10 presently, and I fear that going 3-2 and losing our first BET game would finalize that low seed.
I get we’ve got 3 road games ahead of us, but they’re against the weaker teams in the conference, and ‘bad matchups’ seems an excuse to me IF our guys are healthy.
Hey, this is quibbling among diehards!
Let’s go Johnnies!
 
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