Bursting the Bubble: Why Sports Aren't Coming Back Soon

Status
Not open for further replies.
[quote="Patrick" post=389072][quote="SJUFAN2" post=389056][quote="Patrick" post=389045]I know feelings count more than facts in 2020 but for the record basketball tv ratings were down 12% this year and both ratings and attendance were up for baseball last season[/quote]

The problem the NBA is facing is competitive balance. Players have too much control over movement and work to put super teams together to win titles. Most average fans don't want to watch an event where the outcome is preordained. I'm not sure how you fix that, but its a major problem that MLB doesn't have. Look at the Yankees. they have the most resources and largest fan base, they spend on players and are loaded with stars which allows them to make the playoffs every year. Haven't won a title in 11 years. As a Yankee fan, that sucks. Bu its great for baseball.[/quote]

100% agree[/quote]

I actually disagree to an extent. Yes the Yankees havent won a world series, but there is alot more to the league than the ultimate outcome. The Yankees don't ever have to rebuild. The resources they have allow them to essentially make the playoffs every year. Mid and small market teams have such a disadvantage that if everything doesnt break perfectly, they literally have no shot to win it all. Look at the winners over the past 10 years. Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Nationals. All among the top payroll teams. Royals are the only ones who aren't who won.
 
[quote="Room112" post=389091][quote="Patrick" post=389072][quote="SJUFAN2" post=389056][quote="Patrick" post=389045]I know feelings count more than facts in 2020 but for the record basketball tv ratings were down 12% this year and both ratings and attendance were up for baseball last season[/quote]

The problem the NBA is facing is competitive balance. Players have too much control over movement and work to put super teams together to win titles. Most average fans don't want to watch an event where the outcome is preordained. I'm not sure how you fix that, but its a major problem that MLB doesn't have. Look at the Yankees. they have the most resources and largest fan base, they spend on players and are loaded with stars which allows them to make the playoffs every year. Haven't won a title in 11 years. As a Yankee fan, that sucks. Bu its great for baseball.[/quote]

100% agree[/quote]

I actually disagree to an extent. Yes the Yankees havent won a world series, but there is alot more to the league than the ultimate outcome. The Yankees don't ever have to rebuild. The resources they have allow them to essentially make the playoffs every year. Mid and small market teams have such a disadvantage that if everything doesnt break perfectly, they literally have no shot to win it all. Look at the winners over the past 10 years. Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Nationals. All among the top payroll teams. Royals are the only ones who aren't who won.[/quote]

No doubt a huge advantage but the 2 that aren't on that list are the 2 richest teams
 
[quote="Patrick" post=389095][quote="Room112" post=389091][quote="Patrick" post=389072][quote="SJUFAN2" post=389056][quote="Patrick" post=389045]I know feelings count more than facts in 2020 but for the record basketball tv ratings were down 12% this year and both ratings and attendance were up for baseball last season[/quote]

The problem the NBA is facing is competitive balance. Players have too much control over movement and work to put super teams together to win titles. Most average fans don't want to watch an event where the outcome is preordained. I'm not sure how you fix that, but its a major problem that MLB doesn't have. Look at the Yankees. they have the most resources and largest fan base, they spend on players and are loaded with stars which allows them to make the playoffs every year. Haven't won a title in 11 years. As a Yankee fan, that sucks. Bu its great for baseball.[/quote]

100% agree[/quote]

I actually disagree to an extent. Yes the Yankees havent won a world series, but there is alot more to the league than the ultimate outcome. The Yankees don't ever have to rebuild. The resources they have allow them to essentially make the playoffs every year. Mid and small market teams have such a disadvantage that if everything doesnt break perfectly, they literally have no shot to win it all. Look at the winners over the past 10 years. Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Nationals. All among the top payroll teams. Royals are the only ones who aren't who won.[/quote]

No doubt a huge advantage but the 2 that aren't on that list are the 2 richest teams[/quote]

But read my whole post. Just because they didn't win the world series doesn't mean everything. They still took a playoff spot from a mid payroll team, every year.
 
[quote="sjc88" post=389062]Baseball certainly has its problems. Not coming back this season would hurt as well. Even attendance has been dropping. Changes will be needed.

However, Baseball drew 68.5 million fans in 2019. So throwing dirt over the corpse is a tad bit premature. Sometimes I wonder if owners don’t want us all to think things are a little worse than they are.

For those who haven’t seen this is interesting: [URL]https://www.nytimes.com/intera...aseball/baseball-popularity-world-series.html[/URL][/quote]

Yes, 7th straight year of reduced attendance, down almost 14% from it's peak. Not dead but not exactly thriving. Would be interested in seeing a chart that shows revenue trends for the 3 major sports.
 
If MLB had a 16 game schedule it would be extremely popular ratings wise on national tv. But MLB is a regional-local sport. Aside from the long slog of a season most of the games are on the local channels acble etc. Go look at what their local ratings are in their time slots. Locally the ratings are real good. Nationally maybe not. Definitely dont have identifiable players and the Trout example as Jack or someone mentioned is a great example.
 
[quote="austour" post=389129][quote="sjc88" post=389062]Baseball certainly has its problems. Not coming back this season would hurt as well. Even attendance has been dropping. Changes will be needed.

However, Baseball drew 68.5 million fans in 2019. So throwing dirt over the corpse is a tad bit premature. Sometimes I wonder if owners don’t want us all to think things are a little worse than they are.

For those who haven’t seen this is interesting: [URL]https://www.nytimes.com/intera...aseball/baseball-popularity-world-series.html[/URL][/quote]

Yes, 7th straight year of reduced attendance, down almost 14% from it's peak. Not dead but not exactly thriving. Would be interested in seeing a chart that shows revenue trends for the 3 major sports.[/quote]

I don’t have trends but here you go. I have no idea why the hell this is in Euros. Football is clearly #1 ( no surprise) Baseball is #2. Basketball is #3. Forget NFL Football, no one is close.

Basketball generates 1B more than baseball on TV. However, baseball generates 4B more in overall revenue. Different business model as baseball of course, plays many more games.

[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_professional_sports_leagues_by_revenue[/URL]
 
[quote="sjc88" post=389138][quote="austour" post=389129][quote="sjc88" post=389062]Baseball certainly has its problems. Not coming back this season would hurt as well. Even attendance has been dropping. Changes will be needed.

However, Baseball drew 68.5 million fans in 2019. So throwing dirt over the corpse is a tad bit premature. Sometimes I wonder if owners don’t want us all to think things are a little worse than they are.

For those who haven’t seen this is interesting: [URL]https://www.nytimes.com/intera...aseball/baseball-popularity-world-series.html[/URL][/quote]

Yes, 7th straight year of reduced attendance, down almost 14% from it's peak. Not dead but not exactly thriving. Would be interested in seeing a chart that shows revenue trends for the 3 major sports.[/quote]

I don’t have trends but here you go. I have no idea why the hell this is in Euros. Football is clearly #1 ( no surprise) Baseball is #2. Basketball is #3. Forget NFL Football, no one is close.

Basketball generates 1B more than baseball on TV. However, baseball generates 4B more in overall revenue. Different business model as baseball of course, plays many more games.

[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_professional_sports_leagues_by_revenue[/URL][/quote]

I assume baseball revenues don’t include the likes of Yes and other regional networks.
 
[quote="Knight" post=389184][quote="sjc88" post=389138][quote="austour" post=389129][quote="sjc88" post=389062]Baseball certainly has its problems. Not coming back this season would hurt as well. Even attendance has been dropping. Changes will be needed.

However, Baseball drew 68.5 million fans in 2019. So throwing dirt over the corpse is a tad bit premature. Sometimes I wonder if owners don’t want us all to think things are a little worse than they are.

For those who haven’t seen this is interesting: [URL]https://www.nytimes.com/intera...aseball/baseball-popularity-world-series.html[/URL][/quote]

Yes, 7th straight year of reduced attendance, down almost 14% from it's peak. Not dead but not exactly thriving. Would be interested in seeing a chart that shows revenue trends for the 3 major sports.[/quote]

I don’t have trends but here you go. I have no idea why the hell this is in Euros. Football is clearly #1 ( no surprise) Baseball is #2. Basketball is #3. Forget NFL Football, no one is close.

Basketball generates 1B more than baseball on TV. However, baseball generates 4B more in overall revenue. Different business model as baseball of course, plays many more games.

[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_professional_sports_leagues_by_revenue[/URL][/quote]

I assume baseball revenues don’t include the likes of Yes and other regional networks.[/quote]

I believe you are correct. I think its only the national TV contacts that count. If course they have rev share mechanisms in place to push some of the local TV money to smaller revenue teams.
 
[quote="Room112" post=389091][quote="Patrick" post=389072][quote="SJUFAN2" post=389056][quote="Patrick" post=389045]I know feelings count more than facts in 2020 but for the record basketball tv ratings were down 12% this year and both ratings and attendance were up for baseball last season[/quote]

The problem the NBA is facing is competitive balance. Players have too much control over movement and work to put super teams together to win titles. Most average fans don't want to watch an event where the outcome is preordained. I'm not sure how you fix that, but its a major problem that MLB doesn't have. Look at the Yankees. they have the most resources and largest fan base, they spend on players and are loaded with stars which allows them to make the playoffs every year. Haven't won a title in 11 years. As a Yankee fan, that sucks. Bu its great for baseball.[/quote]

100% agree[/quote]

I actually disagree to an extent. Yes the Yankees havent won a world series, but there is alot more to the league than the ultimate outcome. The Yankees don't ever have to rebuild. The resources they have allow them to essentially make the playoffs every year. Mid and small market teams have such a disadvantage that if everything doesnt break perfectly, they literally have no shot to win it all. Look at the winners over the past 10 years. Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Nationals. All among the top payroll teams. Royals are the only ones who aren't who won.[/quote]

The Yankees success isn't built solely on having a large checkbook and resources to throw at free agents. They haven't had a losing season since 1992, which is one of the most remarkable and least talked about statistics in any sport. Part of that is attributable to resources and having cash to spend on top free agents. But their has been driven by excellent scouting and player development more than anything.

The mid/late 90s dynasty was built on the farm system. Yes, they supplemented with free agents. But the best players on those teams, by and large, were home grown. And they used the farm system or homegrown players to acquire guys who fell out of favor (O'Neill) or acquire guys (Cone, Fielder, Knoblauch, Tino, etc).

In the mid/late 2000s they flexed financial muscle when needed to sign or acquire players, whether that be Giambi, Mussina or some of the early ones who didn't work out as well. Arod only happens because they had the resources to take his salary and a top notch homegrown star in Soriano to flip as part of the deal.

In 2009 they went all in free agency to sign CC, Tex and AJ -- perhaps the best example of them using money to get over the hump and win a title. But many of the original homegrown stars were central cogs to those teams as well and very much part of the equation.

Then comes this latest wave. Again, excellent scouting, player development and a good farm system played a huge role in the consistent success, aside from payroll ability. Judge, Sanchez, Betances, Severino -- all homegrown and developed. DiDi comes via a smart trade -- acquiring a young player another org had soured on to some degree, and developing him into a really good player. Hicks - same example, using a homegrown asset to get a talented guy another team gave up on to some extent (straight up trade for Jr Murphy). Andujar - homegrown. Voit - acquired via a smart trade. Urshella - again, acquired via a smart trade. Paxson - using the farm system to get a guy. Torres - homegrown acquired via a smart trade. Ditto for Frazier and, the second piece in that deal, gets traded to get Paxson.

Sure, you still have the Tanaka and Cole big free agent signings. But over the past 25 years many other -- in fact every other -- big market franchise has hit a huge wall at some point and had a few bad seasons, despite the advantage in resources. The Yankees haven't because they are no longer just about spending $$ -- and haven't been for some time. They flex the financial might when needed, but the sustained success is due to being a really really well run organization from top to the bottom in every phase.
 
Francesa has spoken of Yankee financial strength showing in their ability to pick up longer to develop minor leaguers, particularly pitchers, that financially weaker clubs can't carry.
 
CNBC: Asymptomatic spread of COVID "very rare" per WHO.

And some of you were acting like I was crazy. This whole thing has been vastly, vastly overblown and botched. The governments are lucky there aren't riots over this.
 
if my statistics are correct, the U.S. represents 4.25% of world population, yet over 28% of Covid 19 deaths. The governments are lucky there aren't riots over that.
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=389336]CNBC: Asymptomatic spread of COVID "very rare" per WHO.

And some of you were acting like I was crazy. This whole thing has been vastly, vastly overblown and botched. The governments are lucky there aren't riots over this.[/quote]

I mean, we’ve lost 112,000 lives and counting to it. I don’t know how that means it was overblown. It was definitely a significant virus. We’ve done a good job keeping the numbers somewhat down... some of the early projected numbers were frightening.

112k and the numbers could’ve been even higher, per this article,

https://twitter.com/bethreinhard/status/1269975926068121601?s=21
 
I just hope the spikes in numbers coming from these protests won’t possibly get the leagues shut down as they near a return
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=389336]CNBC: Asymptomatic spread of COVID "very rare" per WHO.

And some of you were acting like I was crazy. This whole thing has been vastly, vastly overblown and botched. The governments are lucky there aren't riots over this.[/quote]

but look at what some of the reports are also showing. 40-60 % of spreading in some models is from people before they started showing symptoms. That's concerning too
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=389336]CNBC: Asymptomatic spread of COVID "very rare" per WHO.

And some of you were acting like I was crazy. This whole thing has been vastly, vastly overblown and botched. The governments are lucky there aren't riots over this.[/quote]

You must be related to Trump!
 
WHO’s report about asymptomatic people not easily spreading the disease should be a good thing for the NBA and NHL.

A lot of the athletes are in premium shape and young and could possible be asymptomatic. Can’t wait to get sports back
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=389336]CNBC: Asymptomatic spread of COVID "very rare" per WHO.

And some of you were acting like I was crazy. This whole thing has been vastly, vastly overblown and botched. The governments are lucky there aren't riots over this.[/quote]

Overblown and botched is an understatement.
 
I’m absolutely sick and tired of the WHO the CDC Fauci and whoever else speaks up. Nobody has been right. Nobody has a clue. Everyone is flying by the seat of their pants. I need a scorecard for all of them but meanwhile they contradict themselves like clockwork.

Ok rant over for now
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top