[quote="jerseyshorejohnny" post=311003]Success against a tough, early slate has Seton Hall in position for a fast finish
By Brandon Lilly / The ATHLETIC
Kevin Willard looked absolutely drained as he stood at the podium on Saturday night after Seton Hall’s thrilling and, yes, controversial, 76-74 win over St. John’s. Maybe it was the energy he expended performing a Kung-Fu fighting style jig after former walk-on guard Shavar Reynolds drilled a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to complete the Pirates’ smash-and-grab comeback victory. Or maybe he was just exhausted after a month of nail-biting basketball.
“I can’t believe we’re playing league games already,” Willard said. “This has been the most brutal December I can ever remember.”
Brutal, maybe, but that was all a part of Willard’s plan.
After losing senior starters Khadeem Carrington, Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez and Ish Sanogo off of last year’s NCAA Tournament team, little was expected of the Pirates this year. Big East coaches pegged the team to finish eighth, but despite the roster losses, Willard constructed the most difficult nonconference schedule he has put together since arriving in South Orange in 2011. Willard’s rationale was simple: He believed it would be easier to fix whatever ails his team in December than it would be in league play. And you can’t diagnose problems playing against sub-standard competition.
“By the time you get to January, you pretty much are who you are,” Willard said. “But playing the teams that we did early gave a chance to iron out what was working and what wasn’t with our rotations, our offense and on the defensive end of the floor.”
The early results were less than encouraging. After close home setbacks against Louisville and Saint Louis, plus a blowout loss at Nebraska, the Pirates were teetering on the brink of irrelevance. But after an overtime victory over Kentucky in Madison Square Garden, followed a couple of weeks later by a true road win against Maryland and capped by Saturday night’s heartstopper against St. John’s, the Pirates are improbably sitting at 9-3, with a set of quality wins (those three plus a neutral-site victory over Miami) that has the Hall thinking seriously about March.
“We learned so much about who we are and who we aren’t during those losses to Nebraska and Saint Louis,” Willard said. “We were able to work through a lot of things, and we’re beginning to see the results of it.”
The hero may change on a nightly basis: Sophomore guard Myles Cale nailed the game-winner in overtime against Kentucky, and Reynolds handed the Red Storm their first loss of the season. But the constant of this team is shooting guard Myles Powell, who Willard called the best player in college basketball during a conference call last week. Powell is averaging 22.5 points per game, second in the Big East to Marquette’s Markus Howard. Cale may have delivered the decisive bucket against Kentucky, but that day in the Garden was Powell’s coming-out party. The junior had 28 points, 25 after halftime, including a ridiculous fadeaway 3-pointer near the end of regulation that would have won the game for the Pirates if not for the halfcourt heave by Keldon Johnson that forced overtime. After slipping into the background on last year’s senior-laden team, Powell has every opponent’s attention. St. John’s opened the game in a box-and-one, with big guard Justin Simon birddogging Powell all over the floor.
“They had me feeling like I was in high school again,” said Powell, who admitted that he hates gimmick defenses. “But I’ve got a good team around me, so they can throw whatever they want at us. We’ll be ready.”
“To be honest, the way he has played really hasn’t surprised me at all,” Willard said of his star, noting that his team spent a good portion of its practice on Monday boning up on how to attack Powell-centric schemes. “This is what we were expecting from him going in to the year, because of the way he finished up last year and the work that he put in over the summer.”
The game against St. John’s had been billed as a showdown between Powell and Shamorie Ponds, who have been friends and rivals since their days on the grassroots circuit. But both had difficult evenings. Powell finished with 15 points on 5-of-15 shooting. Ponds, who didn’t score until there was 10:25 left, had eight points, but he did tally six rebounds, seven assists and five steals.
Even with Ponds having an off night, the Johnnies had no business losing. Yes, they had a terrible whistle go against them in the final seconds, as wing L.J. Figueroa saved a ball that officials ruled out of bounds with under four seconds left. (On Monday, the league office acknowledged that St. John’s would have had possession if not for the inadvertent whistle.) But the game never should have gotten to that point. Playing their first game against a team with legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations, the Johnnies trailed for less than 20 seconds and led by as many as 14 points in the second half before the Pirates made their late charge.
For most teams, a road loss to a team such as Seton Hall would not be catastrophic. But the Red Storm’s nonconference slate, which to be fair was probably constructed with the thought that Ponds would be going to the NBA and Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron would not be eligible, was woefully bad and has left St. John’s entering the new year with 12 wins that won’t count for much come Selection Sunday. Coach Chris Mullin bristled when asked whether the soft schedule had contributed to the late collapse.
“We played some really close games, and most of our core guys have played games against some of the top teams in the country over the course of their careers,” Mullin said. “They’ve played in big games, and close games, so no, I don’t think so.”
The Red Storm have no time lick their wounds, as Marquette comes to Queens on Tuesday night.
To be sure, the Pirates have had their fair share of lucky breaks, but one thing working against the Hall this season is the shift from the RPI to the NET as the primary organizing metric for the NCAA selection committee. After the win over St. John’s, the Hall sits 22nd in the RPI, but is slotted 52nd in the NET. Only Temple (21st in the RPI and 61st in the NET) and Drake (31st and 99th) have been harmed more by the shift. Scoring margin seems to be the culprit for the Pirates. They have won their four biggest games (Miami, Kentucky, Maryland and St. John’s) by a combined nine points. But no one knows for sure why the discrepancy is so large between the RPI and the NET as the NCAA has not revealed the formula for how the metric is calculated. The five components (game results, net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin) are known, but the weight each factor is given within the formula is not. As a way of comparison, St. John’s, which does not own a significant win, is 34th in the RPI and 36th in the NET.
“I don’t think that predictive metrics should be used at all, but what bothers me most is that no knows what the formula is,” Willard said, adding that he finds the use of scoring margin as “problematic.”
“I think it’s going to change the way that guys coach, to be honest,” he said. “Maybe if you’re down eight or so with under a minute to go, instead of fouling you just hold the ball so you don’t lose by too much.”
Magic is an overused word in college basketball. But when you topple a blue blood in overtime at the Garden and then beat a conference rival at the buzzer to open Big East play, you would have to call the team’s start at least magic-adjacent. Asked about the close nature of the Pirates’ toughest games, Powell quipped, “It’s bad for my heart, but I can get used to this.”[/quote]
A fair and painful article to read, Let's move on, defy the odds, and book a very successful BEC season.