Villanova Is Living and Dying by the 3-Pointer
The Wildcats won the NCAA title last season by hoisting a record number of threes, but have found out this season that the shots don’t always fall
By Laine Higgins / Wall Street Journal
March 5, 2019
A year ago, Villanova won its second national title in three years with a record-setting offensive assault in which it made 40.1% of its 1,158 shots from 3-point range, the highest tally of 3-point field goal attempts for any team in NCAA history.
The Wildcats this season still live by the three, attempting more 3-point shots per game than nearly every other program in college basketball. Its 905 attempts from behind the line are fifth in the nation and the highest of any top-25 team.
But in some games, they are also dying by it. And that could make the difference between making a run at another title or exiting March Madness early.
Villanova coach Jay Wright is one of the coaches who has pushed the boundaries of 3-point shooting in college basketball, deploying a catch-to-shoot offense that encourages players to launch more and more long shots. In each of the last three years, his teams have broken Villanova’s program record for single-season 3-point field goal attempts.
But this year’s Wildcats are an indicator of how much more difficult it is to consistently rely on the 3-point strategy in college than it is in the NBA. Decimated by personnel losses from last year’s national title team, Villanova is young and still learning a new way to play.
On the nights when the 3-point shots don’t drop, Villanova has struggled to stay competitive with opponents. The team that last year set 3-point records is shooting a colder 35.1% from 3-point range, 133rd best in Division I basketball.
Villanova has dropped eight games this year, its largest loss tally since 2012-13, and they have spent most of the winter on the cusp of the Top 25 rather than at the top of it. They are currently ranked No. 23 in the AP poll and they are 25th in the NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, rankings, which are used to help decide NCAA tournament bids and seedings.
“We have been very inconsistent,” said Wright. “I’m not as happy about the way we’re playing, but I’m happy that we’re sticking together.”
It’s no coincidence that three games in which the Wildcats made the lowest percentage of 3-pointers this year are also the three games they lost by the widest margin: a 27-point rout by Michigan, and 12-point conference losses to Georgetown and Xavier.
Keeping up with last year’s championship team was always going to be difficult for this year’s squad, given the unusual amount of high-end roster turnover the team experienced between seasons. Wright expected to lose point guard and 2018 National Player of the Year Jalen Brunson to the NBA draft. But three other starters—Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo and Omari Spellman—unexpectedly left for professional basketball as well.
That left Wright with just two returning starters, redshirt seniors Phil Booth and Eric Paschall, and a host of untested underclassmen immediately facing significant minutes.
“We wouldn’t trade the national championship or Mikal [Bridges] or Donte [DiVincenzo] or Omari [Spellman] being first-round picks for anything, but that’s just what our challenge is,” Wright said. “We have the growing pains.”
The Wildcats’ 3-point shooting improved steadily after the blowout loss to Michigan, when they made just 20% of their long range shots. But Villanova’s completion percentage dipped sharply in the middle of February as the team dropped three consecutive games, all to Big East foes, for the first time in six years.
Villanova rebounded from that skid with wins over then-No. 10 Marquette and Butler and has just one more conference game against Seton Hall remaining this Saturday. Should the Wildcats win, they will earn the top seed in next week’s Big East tournament. The conference is deep this year, with eight teams ranked in the top 75, according to the NET ranking.
The Wildcats will almost certainly win a bid to March Madness regardless of whether they take home a conference championship. What lies ahead could prove problematic, however. When Villanova faces Top 25 teams, its 3-point field goal percentage dips to 27.8% compared to 38.8% against all other opponents.
Wright’s slogan for his 3-heavy offense, “Shoot ‘em up, sleep in the streets,” is meant to encourage players to be aggressive with their shots, no matter if they drop.
“You can’t stop shooting when you’re not making threes,” he said. “You’re going to have some bad nights and you can’t be afraid of those nights. That’s what sleep in the streets means.”
This year’s less experienced Villanova squad has been slower to get comfortable with that mantra. Learning Wright’s catch-to-shoot offense does not come naturally to rookies, Paschall said.
“It’s very new for younger guys and not everybody’s used to it,” said Paschall. “In high school everybody’s so dominant that you can just get away without ever using your jump shot to even get to the rim. At this level you need a different way.”
To succeed in Villanova’s offense, players must ignore their impulse to dribble after catching the ball and instead be ready to pull up for a long-range shot. That involves learning new spacing, footwork and instincts.
“The hardest thing is just breaking the old habits you had coming in from high school,” said Booth. “Once you get a rhythm and feel for it you realize how much more open you are and you can get some good shots off.”
It’s telling that Booth and Paschall, the returning starters, account for 43% of Villanova’s 3-point field goal attempts this season. The seniors have tallied the most minutes on the team, but they’ve also had the longest time to adjust to Wright’s offense.
“You can get a little three happy before you learn how to be judicious,” said Wright of teaching younger players to catch to shoot. “But I feel like it’s part of the progression.”
“We’re good shooters sometimes taking bad shots. But we’re good shooters.”
