The overly simplistic answer is that our offensive metrics really weigh us down in predictive computer models (Kenpom, Torvik, Miya).
If you look at
KenPom, our defense is #2 but offense is #83. No school ahead of us is lower than #39 on offense or defense. You have to get to #23 Kentucky to find another school sub-80 on anything (#90 on defense). BPI has us #3 defensively, Torvik has us #3 defense and #103 offense, etc.
That said, the BPI
resume metrics are looking great for us right now. We're #6 in strength of record. Torvik's WAB (wins above bubble) has us #10.
AP writers and coaches aren't beholden to models, which will lead to some randomness.