2024-25 Rankings
- Thread starter ADORAZ
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How many drinks have you had tonight 
With the win tonight the Johnnies have guaranteed a spot somewhere midway in the AP Top 25 at worst next Monday. UConn will be pretty tough and I expect to be underdogs, but even with a loss we'd probably remain close to #12.
Let's imagine for a second though that we do beat them. Based on the results from the last couple days:
#8 Iowa State lost by 17 @ #16 Kansas. They've now lost 3 in a row. We'd pass them (maybe regardless of the UConn result).
#9 Michigan St lost by 2 @ UCLA. They've lost 2 in a row and play Oregon next. We'd pass them (maybe regardless of the UConn result).
#11 Marquette lost by 6 @ #12 St. John's. We'll pass them (regardless of the UConn result).
So, right there are 3 teams we'd definitely pass if we beat UConn, putting us at #9. I also would expect to jump several other teams even if they win all of their games this week. Still a lot of games to be played, but I think we'd have a decent shot at Top 5/6. I'll revisit that scenario this weekend if we do beat UConn.
Hard to imagine things getting any better than they currently are, but I also didn't expect to be THIS good this quickly under Pitino.
Let's imagine for a second though that we do beat them. Based on the results from the last couple days:
#8 Iowa State lost by 17 @ #16 Kansas. They've now lost 3 in a row. We'd pass them (maybe regardless of the UConn result).
#9 Michigan St lost by 2 @ UCLA. They've lost 2 in a row and play Oregon next. We'd pass them (maybe regardless of the UConn result).
#11 Marquette lost by 6 @ #12 St. John's. We'll pass them (regardless of the UConn result).
So, right there are 3 teams we'd definitely pass if we beat UConn, putting us at #9. I also would expect to jump several other teams even if they win all of their games this week. Still a lot of games to be played, but I think we'd have a decent shot at Top 5/6. I'll revisit that scenario this weekend if we do beat UConn.
Hard to imagine things getting any better than they currently are, but I also didn't expect to be THIS good this quickly under Pitino.
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Now don't you talk dirty to me.
2024-25 Resume Men's College Basketball Power Index - ESPN
View the 2024-25 Resume Men's College Basketball power index on ESPN. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.
Also very positive. 9th best resume.
The only other team we could jump this week in my mind is TAM if the lose to Mizzou. I guess maybe Purdue if they somehow lose at home to SC but that would be close and it's not very likely. They're not going to penalize Florida for losing to Auburn and they and those above them have too much separation. Still if they jump 3 or 4 spots to 8 or 9 I'd be ecstatic.
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Right so they won't jump them on those lists and won't gain a lot of points on those ballots. Say the point totals are reflective of what you need to be ranked in the same position next week. To get to 7th you'd need 294 additional points. That means jumping an average of about 4.75 spots per voter.
I looked at all of the guys who had St Johns in the top 10 and assumed they would pass Marquette, Mi St, Tx Tech, Ia St and A&M (if they lose) on those ballots. That would make up 22 points from 13 voters, an average of less than 2 spots per voter. That means you now need 272 points from 49 voters.
Now you're looking at an average jump of 5.5 spots per voter. That's a lot of spots when 28 of those voters already have STJ in 11-13 and will probably average let's say 3.5 spots per voter.
That means the other 21 voters have to average over a 7 spot jump. Now I expect a big jump from Seth Davis given some of his posts today but you don't know if the other voters are anti-BE, anti-Pitino, anti <20% from 3, whatever, but I'm sure there's some of those out there.
Math says it'll be tough to get to 7.
Unlike the brackets which look at resumes as a whole (equally weighing early season games and late season), the AP can be forgiving of early season losses. If St. John's beats UConn we'd become the biggest story in college basketball, the hottest team. The type of team pollsters would start penciling into their Final Fours, and therefore top 3-4 of their AP ballots.
I'd also be ecstatic with a top 10, and I have zero doubt that'd happen if we beat UConn. As for Top 5/6 it's too early to say, too many games to play. I still think we'd pass some teams even if they have perfect weeks, because the teams we're playing this week are far superior. Teams don't have to lose for us to pass them, they're not penalizing them but rather saying St. John's is better than they thought. We see it every week whwre teams with really good wins pass teams that didn't lose.
Let's see first if we beat UConn (along with results from other games), but right now I think we'd have a good shot at getting at or very close to the top 5.
Here's the teams ranked higher that could still have perfect weeks: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Tennessee, Houston, Florida, Purdue, A&M.
Tell me who those teams they'd pass are. Certainly not the first 6 unless Florida gets blown out by 50+ by Auburn. Purdue most likely not either. Maybe A&M but they'd be coming off a ranked win vs. Mizzou this weekend so unlikely.
L J S A
Well-known member
I think ceiling is a 1 seed. All those SEC teams at the top will eventually start thinning their own herd.
Even excluding all the wins we'll need to collect, a lot will still need to happen of course -- including committee members who anointed certain teams a month ago and won't budge from that on selection Sunday.
Beat UConn and I think we're inside top 10, a full week ahead of where and when I thought we'd be. And top 10 with a month+ to go is a great place to be.
my brain hurts
Yeah 2 SEC teams will be #1 seeds, just remains to be seen which 2. Duke is a lock since they won't play anyone good now until the tournament besides Illinois. Last one will go to B12, B1G or BE champ depending on how things play out from here.
Don't see it. Auburn, Duke, Alabama all likely 1's and too many other teams that I think will have slightly better resumes. But, the fact that we're even debating is a testament to how special this season has been.