X win is huge because even if we fall on our face in February, we swept the team that we're likely competing with for the spot.
2024-25 Rankings
- Thread starter ADORAZ
- Start date
This is not meant to be negative, just ... interesting.
It is becoming increasingly possible that we could get to the end of the season:
1. With a top-25 ranking
2. Without a win over a top-25 team, or at least without a win over a team that was ranked when we played them.
That would mean that we lose both to Marquette, beat U Conn at a point in time when they're unranked (possibly losing to them when they're ranked if they aren't unranked both times we play them, and win all of the other games which would probably be enough to keep us in the top 25.
I don't think it will play out that way, but it is not impossible.
What got me thinking about this was that setting aside things like NET and KenPom and MaherIPA etc, we don't actually have a signature win. We have good wins over good teams - New Mexico, at Xavier, probably last night, maybe at Providence. But this doesn't look like one of those years where we will have that win over a top 10 team (unless Marquette is there when we play and beat them).
I don't think that makes us different from 99% of the other teams in the country - you can only play who's on your schedule - nor does it take away the fact that this team could beat any non-SEC team on any given day (I think the top of the SEC may be a different level, but I wouldn't exclude the possibility that we could beat some of those if we hit some shots, too). But it is a little odd.
Hopefully the way it will actually play out is that both Marquette and UConn are ranked when we play them and we go 2-2 or 3-1 and end all doubt (and also wind up in the top 15).
It is becoming increasingly possible that we could get to the end of the season:
1. With a top-25 ranking
2. Without a win over a top-25 team, or at least without a win over a team that was ranked when we played them.
That would mean that we lose both to Marquette, beat U Conn at a point in time when they're unranked (possibly losing to them when they're ranked if they aren't unranked both times we play them, and win all of the other games which would probably be enough to keep us in the top 25.
I don't think it will play out that way, but it is not impossible.
What got me thinking about this was that setting aside things like NET and KenPom and MaherIPA etc, we don't actually have a signature win. We have good wins over good teams - New Mexico, at Xavier, probably last night, maybe at Providence. But this doesn't look like one of those years where we will have that win over a top 10 team (unless Marquette is there when we play and beat them).
I don't think that makes us different from 99% of the other teams in the country - you can only play who's on your schedule - nor does it take away the fact that this team could beat any non-SEC team on any given day (I think the top of the SEC may be a different level, but I wouldn't exclude the possibility that we could beat some of those if we hit some shots, too). But it is a little odd.
Hopefully the way it will actually play out is that both Marquette and UConn are ranked when we play them and we go 2-2 or 3-1 and end all doubt (and also wind up in the top 15).
Hopefully the OOC is much, much, much more difficult next year. This is the conundrum you're asking for when you schedule the 198th SOS and have three of those games out of your control (Baha Mar, Big 12 Challenge). If we can have eight games against quality opponents before the BE, even if we just go 3-5, we'll at least have a few quality wins under our belt.
The thing is that on paper we HAD a good OOC. Baylor, Virginia, Georgia, K State all on paper were going to be potentially top 25 teams. Also Xavier and Creighton. I mean Baylor was like #12 when we played them.
It's just that the way the cards fell we somehow wound up here where somebody at NCAA T time could (potentially) say "yeah, they're 26-5 or whatever, but they never beat a team that was ranked when they played them."
Even in down years we usually found one huge upset over a top 10 team. It's weird that this is going to be our best year in forever and yet will be the rare year where we DON'T have that. Just an oddity.
Imho our OOC was short one game of another power conference opponent. With that tweak our OOC schedule would have been very comparable to UCONN & Marquette. Hopefully we make that tweak next year.
Given how this season has turned out… if we avoid a Loss to SH to close the season… I think we avoid a “bad loss”… first time we can say that in a while…
And that Baylor loss stings less… would have loved a crack at Tennessee
Way past worrying about analytics. At this point public perception is the biggest driver imo
Providence at home is Q3 and Seton Hall at home is Q4 (!!!). Need to beat both those teams.
Just pointing out the silliness and how much it weighs on the clueless members of the committee. So far this year we are not leaving in their hands.
Kenpom stayed at #20 ...that other saint, St. Mary is #27St. John's Red Storm Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists
bracketologists.com
We didn't move much metrics-wise. KPI up one spot to 27, NET remained at 25, Kenpom at 20.
Wild thing is, its likely because we're predicted to win every game but @Marq and @UConn (which, depending on how this weekend goes for them, maybe also changes). Margin matters for the computers, but I do think the committee and Top 25 voters care more about quality wins. X was absolutely a quality win.
Still, the season we're all hoping and think we will have will be based on five games in February -- UConn 2x, Marq 2x and Creighton.
Agree with all but if we win big east title and win most of our remaining games to do so then our seed would be higher.
Astoria STH
Well-known member
Great point and probably why Rick was so keen on the game's importance, last night trounced any idea of a head to head resume scenario with X in a worst case predicament for us.
L J S A
Well-known member
Do all that and we are a 2 or a 3. Especially if we take losses like the first three: We've lost three games by a combined 5 points.
Our Signature wins will be home against Marquette and Feb 7 at Uconn
Down goes #17 Illinois! The only Top 25 team ahead of us that played tonight, and they lost by 21 to an unranked Maryland team.
This week the following teams ahead of us have lost thus far:
#11 Purdue (Vs Ohio St)
#14 Mississippi St (@ #6 Tennessee)
#16 Ole Miss (Vs #13 Texas A&M)
#17 Illinois (Vs Maryland)
#18 Wisconsin (@ UCLA)
If the AP voted today we'd probably be #17 or #18, passing the latter 2 or 3, but still a lot more games to play this weekend.
This week the following teams ahead of us have lost thus far:
#11 Purdue (Vs Ohio St)
#14 Mississippi St (@ #6 Tennessee)
#16 Ole Miss (Vs #13 Texas A&M)
#17 Illinois (Vs Maryland)
#18 Wisconsin (@ UCLA)
If the AP voted today we'd probably be #17 or #18, passing the latter 2 or 3, but still a lot more games to play this weekend.
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If we're competing w/ X for a spot, it would be terribly disappointing....