2015 Bracketology

[Marillac]

Minnesota over Norhtwestern
Syracuse over Louisville
Fresno State over Colorado State
UNLV over Boise State
Colorado over Oregon
Virginia Tech over Miami (FL)
Arizona State over UCLA

How about Xavier? Up 10 on Cincy early second half?

That could be both good, and bad.

Not bad...it's huge! Cincy is #36 in the RPI now. A loss to Xavier at home is going to put them behind both of us. This will be their third loss in a row (just lost to Tulane at home). They have an awful SOS after this game: 259, 217, 152, 48, and 95. A loss in any of the first three games, and their RPI is finished and they are off the bubble for good.

Cincy was a lock for the tournament eight days ago.

 

[SJU61982]

Minnesota over Norhtwestern
Syracuse over Louisville
Fresno State over Colorado State
UNLV over Boise State
Colorado over Oregon
Virginia Tech over Miami (FL)
Arizona State over UCLA

How about Xavier? Up 10 on Cincy early second half?

That could be both good, and bad.

Not bad...it's huge! Cincy is #36 in the RPI now. A loss to Xavier at home is going to put them behind both of us. This will be their third loss in a row (just lost to Tulane at home). They have an awful SOS after this game: 259, 217, 152, 48, and 95. A loss in any of the first three games, and their RPI is finished and they are off the bubble for good.

Cincy was a lock for the tournament eight days ago.

I was thinking more along the lines of Xavier. If they are on the same plane as us, as some on here think, then just about anything they do hurts us. Winning would push them ahead of us on the S-curve (most people already think they are), and a loss would diminish our road victory.

I personally don't feel this way, but there is an argument to be made for it.

 

[Marillac]

Minnesota over Norhtwestern
Syracuse over Louisville
Fresno State over Colorado State
UNLV over Boise State
Colorado over Oregon
Virginia Tech over Miami (FL)
Arizona State over UCLA

How about Xavier? Up 10 on Cincy early second half?

That could be both good, and bad.

Not bad...it's huge! Cincy is #36 in the RPI now. A loss to Xavier at home is going to put them behind both of us. This will be their third loss in a row (just lost to Tulane at home). They have an awful SOS after this game: 259, 217, 152, 48, and 95. A loss in any of the first three games, and their RPI is finished and they are off the bubble for good.

Cincy was a lock for the tournament eight days ago.

I was thinking more along the lines of Xavier. If they are on the same plane as us, as some on here think, then just about anything they do hurts us. Winning would push them ahead of us on the S-curve (most people already think they are), and a loss would diminish our road victory.

I personally don't feel this way, but there is an argument to be made for it.

I like the fact that we control our own destiny v. Xavier. I might feel differently if we had a road game left with them.

Let's hope Xavier pulls this one out up two with the ball and just over two minutes left.

 

[Jack Williams]

Syracuse up 8 on #12 Louisville with 3 minutes remaining!

 

[Marillac]

Syracuse up 8 on #12 Louisville with 3 minutes remaining!

Syracuse beats Louisville by ten and Xavier beats #36 Cincy on the road! Nice.

That puts Cincy on the outside looking in and firmly on our hip. Gotta love being 2-0 against common opponents against a fellow bubble team. Syracuse can really help us out the next few weeks.

It's crazy, eight days ago Cincy was a 7 seed...now they are on the wrong side of the bubble.

 

[ccnobz]

That was a sweet couple of minutes for STJ!

 

[Jack Williams]

Syracuse up 8 on #12 Louisville with 3 minutes remaining!

Syracuse beats Louisville by ten and Xavier beats #36 Cincy on the road! Nice.

That puts Cincy on the outside looking in and firmly on our hip. Gotta love being 2-0 against common opponents against a fellow bubble team. Syracuse can really help us out the next few weeks.

It's crazy, eight days ago Cincy was a 7 seed...now they are on the wrong side of the bubble.

Not quite

 

[weathermannyc]

The Big East currently has 6 teams with at least 16 wins: Nova, Butler, Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St Johns.

Four of those teams have RPIs of 24 or better (Nova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence.

The other two have RPIs in the 40s (Xavier, St Johns).

If this holds, then the question is pretty simple: Does the NCAA take 4 teams or 6 out of the Big East? There's a pretty clear demarcation point if they want to draw a line.

There's a lot of basketball left to play, though. However, I disagree with those who think that some magic number (20, 21) of wins gets us in. I think we could win 22 and be left out depending on how the committee views the conference and who else is in the mix.

It would be possible for a Big East team to get left out at 22 wins, but I think it would be impossible for that to happen to us this year. It would mean 5 additional wins from right now. Even if you take SH and @Marq as not impressive to the committee, then it still leaves three additional significant wins. Our RPI, SOS and resume as a whole would be too impressive for that to happen.

 

[room112]

The Big East currently has 6 teams with at least 16 wins: Nova, Butler, Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St Johns.

Four of those teams have RPIs of 24 or better (Nova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence.

The other two have RPIs in the 40s (Xavier, St Johns).

If this holds, then the question is pretty simple: Does the NCAA take 4 teams or 6 out of the Big East? There's a pretty clear demarcation point if they want to draw a line.

There's a lot of basketball left to play, though. However, I disagree with those who think that some magic number (20, 21) of wins gets us in. I think we could win 22 and be left out depending on how the committee views the conference and who else is in the mix.

Have to say I don't agree with this at all. And the evidence to back my position comes from the stats showing how rare it is for a team with an RPI under 50 to miss the tournament.

 

[Marillac]

Syracuse up 8 on #12 Louisville with 3 minutes remaining!

Syracuse beats Louisville by ten and Xavier beats #36 Cincy on the road! Nice.

That puts Cincy on the outside looking in and firmly on our hip. Gotta love being 2-0 against common opponents against a fellow bubble team. Syracuse can really help us out the next few weeks.

It's crazy, eight days ago Cincy was a 7 seed...now they are on the wrong side of the bubble.

Not quite

Do you think Cincy would be in if the season ended today?
They would have to be behind both us and Xavier. We both have better RPIs now, all three schools have similar records, SJU and Xavier have better SOSs (disparity will only grow), we are 2-0 and Cincy is 0-2 (both home games) against common opponents, Xavier beat Cincy head to head on the road, and both SJU and Xavier play in a better conference (both objectively and subjectively) than Cincy. Not to mention Cincy has now lost three in a row and four of the last six. Cincy is 0-4 against teams from big conferences (losses to Big East, Big Ten, A-10, and SEC schools).

The season clearly isn't over, but if it was it would be: St. John's, Xavier, Cincy on the bubble ladder. SJU and Xavier in, Cincy out.

Big win by Xavier tonight.

 

[gman]

Syracuse up 8 on #12 Louisville with 3 minutes remaining!

L'ville minus Chris Jones

 

[Jack Williams]

Syracuse up 8 on #12 Louisville with 3 minutes remaining!

Syracuse beats Louisville by ten and Xavier beats #36 Cincy on the road! Nice.

That puts Cincy on the outside looking in and firmly on our hip. Gotta love being 2-0 against common opponents against a fellow bubble team. Syracuse can really help us out the next few weeks.

It's crazy, eight days ago Cincy was a 7 seed...now they are on the wrong side of the bubble.

Not quite

Do you think Cincy would be in if the season ended today?
They would have to be behind both us and Xavier. We both have better RPIs now, all three schools have similar records, SJU and Xavier have better SOSs (disparity will only grow), we are 2-0 and Cincy is 0-2 (both home games) against common opponents, Xavier beat Cincy head to head on the road, and both SJU and Xavier play in a better conference (both objectively and subjectively) than Cincy. Not to mention Cincy has now lost three in a row and four of the last six. Cincy is 0-4 against teams from big conferences (losses to Big East, Big Ten, A-10, and SEC schools).

The season clearly isn't over, but if it was it would be: St. John's, Xavier, Cincy on the bubble ladder. SJU and Xavier in, Cincy out.

Big win by Xavier tonight.

Cincy is projected at a 10 seed in the tournament right now. So are we. If a loss to Georgetown doesn't knock us out of the field a loss to Xavier shouldn't knock them out. They will be in the last four byes or last four in but for now on the right side of the bubble in my opinion I could be wrong.

 

[sirvoo]

The way I see it, we need to win the next 4 in a row to feel 100% secure heading into the tourney. 3-1 heading into Nova, means we will either need to upset them or win 1 game in the BE tourney.

SHU
Xavier
Gtown
@ Marquette

Boy would it be nice to be 3-0 heading into Wisconsin in early March

 

[Jack Williams]

The way I see it, we need to win the next 4 in a row to feel 100% secure heading into the tourney. 3-1 heading into Nova, means we will either need to upset them or win 1 game in the BE tourney.

SHU
Xavier
Gtown
@ Marquette

Boy would it be nice to be 3-0 heading into Wisconsin in early March

Indeed. We'd be playing for a bid in wisky. My prediction is we go 2-1 in next 3, beat Marquette, and have 2 opportunities for a bid, against nova and in the BET. hopefully we just win the next 4 like you said and get in with ease.

 

[sirvoo]

The way I see it, we need to win the next 4 in a row to feel 100% secure heading into the tourney. 3-1 heading into Nova, means we will either need to upset them or win 1 game in the BE tourney.

SHU
Xavier
Gtown
@ Marquette

Boy would it be nice to be 3-0 heading into Wisconsin in early March

Indeed. We'd be playing for a bid in wisky. My prediction is we go 2-1 in next 3, beat Marquette, and have 2 opportunities for a bid, against nova and in the BET. hopefully we just win the next 4 like you said and get in with ease.

Yep, unfortunately the only game I'm worried about is Xavier. If we can get past them and play Gtown on Senior day...I like our chances

 

[Redmen88]

The way I see it, we need to win the next 4 in a row to feel 100% secure heading into the tourney. 3-1 heading into Nova, means we will either need to upset them or win 1 game in the BE tourney.

SHU
Xavier
Gtown
@ Marquette

Boy would it be nice to be 3-0 heading into Wisconsin in early March

Indeed. We'd be playing for a bid in wisky. My prediction is we go 2-1 in next 3, beat Marquette, and have 2 opportunities for a bid, against nova and in the BET. hopefully we just win the next 4 like you said and get in with ease.

If we win 3 out of our last 4 we would definitely be in the tournament. That means we either sweep X or beat Gtown. It would be nice to win 1 in the BE but I don't think it would be necessary. It would just be for seeding. If we win 3 of 4 and 1 in the BE we would be 7-9 seed otherwise 10-12 seed. Then again keep winning and we enjoy the rest of the season. 1 at a time.

 

[sirvoo]

The way I see it, we need to win the next 4 in a row to feel 100% secure heading into the tourney. 3-1 heading into Nova, means we will either need to upset them or win 1 game in the BE tourney.

SHU
Xavier
Gtown
@ Marquette

Boy would it be nice to be 3-0 heading into Wisconsin in early March

Indeed. We'd be playing for a bid in wisky. My prediction is we go 2-1 in next 3, beat Marquette, and have 2 opportunities for a bid, against nova and in the BET. hopefully we just win the next 4 like you said and get in with ease.

If we win 3 out of our last 4 we would definitely be in the tournament. That means we either sweep X or beat Gtown. It would be nice to win 1 in the BE but I don't think it would be necessary. It would just be for seeding. If we win 3 of 4 and 1 in the BE we would be 7-9 seed otherwise 10-12 seed. Then again keep winning and we enjoy the rest of the season. 1 at a time.

If we win 3 out of 4 I would hope the Marquette game is one of the W's. Don't want to be on a 3 game skid heading into selection day

 

[Jack Williams]

The way I see it, we need to win the next 4 in a row to feel 100% secure heading into the tourney. 3-1 heading into Nova, means we will either need to upset them or win 1 game in the BE tourney.

SHU
Xavier
Gtown
@ Marquette

Boy would it be nice to be 3-0 heading into Wisconsin in early March

Indeed. We'd be playing for a bid in wisky. My prediction is we go 2-1 in next 3, beat Marquette, and have 2 opportunities for a bid, against nova and in the BET. hopefully we just win the next 4 like you said and get in with ease.

If we win 3 out of our last 4 we would definitely be in the tournament. That means we either sweep X or beat Gtown. It would be nice to win 1 in the BE but I don't think it would be necessary. It would just be for seeding. If we win 3 of 4 and 1 in the BE we would be 7-9 seed otherwise 10-12 seed. Then again keep winning and we enjoy the rest of the season. 1 at a time.

9-9 I think we might squeak in but boy would we be sweating bullets during the selection show. Better to be safe than sorry. The way I see it:

10-8 = IN
9-9 = maybe in but shaky
9-9 + a BET win = IN

 

[Redmen88]

The way I see it, we need to win the next 4 in a row to feel 100% secure heading into the tourney. 3-1 heading into Nova, means we will either need to upset them or win 1 game in the BE tourney.

SHU
Xavier
Gtown
@ Marquette

Boy would it be nice to be 3-0 heading into Wisconsin in early March

Indeed. We'd be playing for a bid in wisky. My prediction is we go 2-1 in next 3, beat Marquette, and have 2 opportunities for a bid, against nova and in the BET. hopefully we just win the next 4 like you said and get in with ease.

If we win 3 out of our last 4 we would definitely be in the tournament. That means we either sweep X or beat Gtown. It would be nice to win 1 in the BE but I don't think it would be necessary. It would just be for seeding. If we win 3 of 4 and 1 in the BE we would be 7-9 seed otherwise 10-12 seed. Then again keep winning and we enjoy the rest of the season. 1 at a time.

9-9 I think we might squeak in but boy would we be sweating bullets during the selection show. Better to be safe than sorry. The way I see it:

10-8 = IN
9-9 = maybe in but shaky
9-9 + a BET win = IN

Agree, but it seems like we are always sweating bullets, so that is probably the predicament we will be in. I am heading to the BE tourney so I would love to see a nice run by us.

 

[Jack Williams]

The way I see it, we need to win the next 4 in a row to feel 100% secure heading into the tourney. 3-1 heading into Nova, means we will either need to upset them or win 1 game in the BE tourney.

SHU
Xavier
Gtown
@ Marquette

Boy would it be nice to be 3-0 heading into Wisconsin in early March

Indeed. We'd be playing for a bid in wisky. My prediction is we go 2-1 in next 3, beat Marquette, and have 2 opportunities for a bid, against nova and in the BET. hopefully we just win the next 4 like you said and get in with ease.

If we win 3 out of our last 4 we would definitely be in the tournament. That means we either sweep X or beat Gtown. It would be nice to win 1 in the BE but I don't think it would be necessary. It would just be for seeding. If we win 3 of 4 and 1 in the BE we would be 7-9 seed otherwise 10-12 seed. Then again keep winning and we enjoy the rest of the season. 1 at a time.

9-9 I think we might squeak in but boy would we be sweating bullets during the selection show. Better to be safe than sorry. The way I see it:

10-8 = IN
9-9 = maybe in but shaky
9-9 + a BET win = IN

Agree, but it seems like we are always sweating bullets, so that is probably the predicament we will be in. I am heading to the BE tourney so I would love to see a nice run by us.

Every year my dad tells me if we make it to Friday night (semifinals) then we will go. We never do