2015 Bracketology
- Thread starter NYCRedmen
- Start date
I would think that fares well compared to most buble teams. Still have 4 top 50/ 5 top 100 games left though.
@chris_russellBB: St. John's has moved up to a 10th seed in Joe Lunardi's Latest Bracketologyhttp://t.co/GgjHSNdruq via @espncbb
Jerry Palm says 7 seed (in Kentucky's region, no less). No real difference from Lunardi though, as both would have us likely meeting Wisconsin in round 2 (how Palm has Kentucky and Wisconsin in the same region is beyond me).
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
tom in salem
Well-known member
2 of the 7 teams the ACC took from the Big East will make the NCAA tournament.
We control our destiny after that Xavier win, but here are some results we could use to continue to thin out the bubble. Also I'll throw in some teams that are around the same seed as us in the lunardi bracket so we can track maybe moving up in the bracket.
Kentucky over Tennessee
South Carolina over Georgia
Oklahoma over Texas
LSU over Texas A&M
Auburn over Alabama
Kentucky over Tennessee
South Carolina over Georgia
Oklahoma over Texas
LSU over Texas A&M
Auburn over Alabama
This puts a pretty clear picture in terms of the bubble:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Big East extract:
Teams that should be in: Butler, Georgetown, Providence
Work left to do: St. John's, Xavier
In case you missed the intro, it's time to wave farewell to Seton Hall -- which, amid the mess of the past few weeks, fell to 5-9 in the Big East and 15-11 overall. Fortunately for everyone involved, there are things happening in the Big East that don't involve the Pirates. Let's talk about them, shall we?
Butler [19-7 (9-4), RPI: 20, SOS: 28] A win over Villanova on Saturday would have locked Butler in. Instead, the Wildcats escaped Hinkle Fieldhouse -- in a game the Indianapolis Star called the biggest in the gym's storied history -- with another trademark close-and-late road win. Nearly as interesting was what came after. Just two days after that disappointment, with forward Andrew Chrabascz sidelined with a broken bone in his hand, Butler got past Creighton on a Roosevelt Jones game winner Monday night. After a five-day rest, Saturday takes the Bulldogs to Xavier. A win there would put Butler at 20-7 with neutral-court wins over North Carolina and Georgetown, and a sweep of the Musketeers, with just four games left to play.
Georgetown [16-8 (8-5), RPI: 23, SOS: 4] The Hoyas have enjoyed a nice, long week off between last Tuesday's win at Seton Hall and this week's visit from St. John's. There's not much to add here, in other words. But given that Georgetown's situation is unlikely to change -- this is still a team with zero bad losses, a 3-8 record against the top-50, top-10 nonconference and overall schedule numbers, and tons of breathing room as a result -- that would have been the case anyway.
Providence [18-8 (8-5), RPI: 24, SOS: 11] Saturday provided a 69-62 home win over Seton Hall, which is hard to get too excited about, given the shape the Pirates are in. Providence's overall portrait, on the other hand, is plenty exciting. The Friars have a top-15 overall schedule and top-20 nonconference rank, enough quality wins to make up for three bad losses -- one of which, at home to Brown, remains a horrific outlier on an otherwise very good resume. Still some business to handle at DePaul on Wednesday night, but little to worry about overall.
St. John's [17-8 (6-6), RPI: 34, SOS: 35] Despite being impressed by St. John's in the one time we saw them live all season (at the Coack K 1,000th win bonanza Jan. 25 at Madison Square Garden), we were ready to write off the Red Storm last week. Instead, they followed wins over Creighton and DePaul with Saturday's road victory at Xavier. Now, we're not so dismissive. There are more than a few bubble teams heading in the wrong direction these days, and if St. John's is one of the few going the right way, their solid schedule and RPI numbers could very well push them over the top. A major test of this trajectory comes Tuesday night at Georgetown -- which makes a return trip to the Garden in just 11 days. Cautious optimism, let's call it.
Xavier [16-10 (7-7), RPI: 42, SOS: 31] There is plenty to like about the Musketeers. Their star center, Matt Stainbrook, drives an Uber car in his free time. Their starting guard, Remy Abell, has found a second home after losing his spot at Indiana. They have a dude named Myles Davis on the team. (If your last name is Davis, and you name your kid Myles, you have some serious confidence in your offspring's future coolness. This Myles shoots nearly 40 percent from 3-point range for a Division I basketball team. Vindication.) On the floor, however, it's just tough to get a read on this team. Xavier swept Georgetown and beat Providence; it also lost to Long Beach State, Auburn, DePaul and Creighton. On Saturday, after back-to-back wins, it fell on its own floor to St. John's, a team that appeared to be floating aimlessly until it landed in Cincinnati. Who knows? The relevant point here is that XU remains just above the uglier sections of the bubble fray. Their next four games come at Cincinnati, versus Butler, at St. John's, and home against Villanova. That's either a brutal stretch or a chance to rack up some top wins. Or both? Seriously: Who knows?
Georgia is in more trouble than we are after tonight
@JonRothstein: Georgia just lost at home to South Carolina hours after the Gamecocks suspended two rotation players. Not good for Dawgs' NCAA resume.
@JonRothstein: Georgia just lost at home to South Carolina hours after the Gamecocks suspended two rotation players. Not good for Dawgs' NCAA resume.
Minnesota over Norhtwestern
Syracuse over Louisville
Fresno State over Colorado State
UNLV over Boise State
Colorado over Oregon
Virginia Tech over Miami (FL)
Arizona State over UCLA
Syracuse over Louisville
Fresno State over Colorado State
UNLV over Boise State
Colorado over Oregon
Virginia Tech over Miami (FL)
Arizona State over UCLA
The Big East currently has 6 teams with at least 16 wins: Nova, Butler, Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St Johns.
Four of those teams have RPIs of 24 or better (Nova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence.
The other two have RPIs in the 40s (Xavier, St Johns).
If this holds, then the question is pretty simple: Does the NCAA take 4 teams or 6 out of the Big East? There's a pretty clear demarcation point if they want to draw a line.
There's a lot of basketball left to play, though. However, I disagree with those who think that some magic number (20, 21) of wins gets us in. I think we could win 22 and be left out depending on how the committee views the conference and who else is in the mix.
Four of those teams have RPIs of 24 or better (Nova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence.
The other two have RPIs in the 40s (Xavier, St Johns).
If this holds, then the question is pretty simple: Does the NCAA take 4 teams or 6 out of the Big East? There's a pretty clear demarcation point if they want to draw a line.
There's a lot of basketball left to play, though. However, I disagree with those who think that some magic number (20, 21) of wins gets us in. I think we could win 22 and be left out depending on how the committee views the conference and who else is in the mix.
That's certainly possible.
No way! The Big East is currently rated the #2 conference in the nation (as, you stated, lots of basketball left, so that could possibly change), based on RPI ratings.
Currently, St. John's has 17 wins, and 22 wins would more than likely mean a good finish to the end of the regular season or/and a decent or solid run in the Big East Tournament. Which, means we probably would have beaten some decent-to-solid teams along the way. That will only increase an already "more than solid" RPI.
IMO, there is no way the Johnnies are left out of the dance with 22 wins.
Who else is in the mix is the most critical of all the criteria. IMO this does not appear to be a year where the bubble competitors will be that tough. Three regular season wins and one BE win should do it.
What is this based on? It is essentially a mathematical impossibility. We currently have an RPI of 37 and a SOS of 30. We have five games remaining and then the B.E.T. If we were to get to 22 wins (from 16 if you don't count FP--which you shouldn't) we would have to either win all five remaining games and then a neutral court game in the conference tournament (presumably against a top 50 RPI school) or some combination of what is left on our schedule and neutral court conference tournament games (again, presumably against top 50 RPI schools).
Our remaining schedule includes games against RPI #66, #43, #20, @#137 and #4. That will only help our already impressive #30 SOS.
If we won six more games, the RPI would be inside 25 with an SOS inside 30. We would be looking at an eight or nine seed.
With a win tonight, Minnesota will have won 6/9 and four of their last five.St. Mary's is a team to watch. They are just outside the top 50 RPI and have home games v. Portland (119) and Gonzaga (8) this week. Also, LBSU just fell out of the top 100 (103). We could really use both of those teams getting inside their respective markers to improve our record against the top 50 and top 100.
Syracuse remains a team for us to cheer for (gross). They are in a close with with (#15) Louisville at the Dome tonight and they face both 16-10 Pitt (#45) and (#3) Virginia at home and 15-11 (#47) NC State. Cuse could send both Pitt and NC State out with wins. A win against help us greatly.