2015 Bracketology

Can we all at least agree on this...

Two wins- any two wins- between these last 3 games and BET gets us in.

Running the math I see no way it doesn't. Our RPI would be mid 30's at that point.
Click to expand...

Disagree. If we win one out of three BE regular season games and finish 9-9 in conference, and then win just one BET game, that means we lose the next one. That would put our conference total record at 10-10 and at 11-2 OOC at 21-12. I wouldn't argue if we got in with that, but I don't think you can take that to the bank.
Click to expand...

Our RPI would be in the 33-36 range if we win one more regular season and one BET (and lose the one after). How can you say that's not enough? When, in history, has that ever happened?
 
FWIW the highest RPI rated major conference team to be left out of the tourney was Cincy at #40 in 2006. Let's assume the committee sees the BE as a major conference.
 
A link to Jerry Palm telling exactly what stats & metrics the committee uses.

Among other interesting things - conference record is NOT considered.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...cketology-what-data-is-relevant-and-what-isnt
Click to expand...

Thank you for the link, very interesting.

Anyone know off the top of their head what SMU's RPI was last year when they were snubbed? I'm going to try to research it but I'm not the best googler. :unsure:
Click to expand...

Think it was about 53.
Click to expand...

That's exactly what it was, according to this article. I also think their SOS was in the 100s, and their non-conference SOS was in the 200s.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bas...4-ncaa-tournament-smu-mustangs-settle-nit-bid
 
Can we all at least agree on this...

Two wins- any two wins- between these last 3 games and BET gets us in.

Running the math I see no way it doesn't. Our RPI would be mid 30's at that point.
Click to expand...

I checked our rpi late last night, and we moved up to #33. Might get into the mid 20s
 
Can we all at least agree on this...

Two wins- any two wins- between these last 3 games and BET gets us in.

Running the math I see no way it doesn't. Our RPI would be mid 30's at that point.
Click to expand...

Disagree. If we win one out of three BE regular season games and finish 9-9 in conference, and then win just one BET game, that means we lose the next one. That would put our conference total record at 10-10 and at 11-2 OOC at 21-12. I wouldn't argue if we got in with that, but I don't think you can take that to the bank.
Click to expand...

Our RPI would be in the 33-36 range if we win one more regular season and one BET (and lose the one after). How can you say that's not enough? When, in history, has that ever happened?
Click to expand...

All I know is that only 5 Big East teams in 30 some-odd years have gotten bids with .500 conference records. One of them UCONN won the BET to secure their bid and won the national championship. When you consider those statistics includes the glory years when the Big East had far more prestige than today. Right now 21 conferences with unranked teams will get bids. With 68 teams getting bids and the top 25 teams assured bids, that's 46 bids right there. Now when you factor in that there will be some unranked teams pulling upsets to win their conference and an automatic bid, that will reduce the number of at large bids from 22, down to however many teams pull upsets.

HEre is a breakdown of conferences where this could happen:

1) American Atlantic. SMU is the only ranked team in conference. Tulsa, Temple, Cinncinati, Memphis and even UCONN could knock them off in the tournament to secure a bid.

2) Big East: Reasonably, Georgetown now unranked could win the BET and steal a bid from a ranked team, who will them get an at large

3) A10 - VCU is only ranked team but there are a host of teams that could knock them off.

4) Big Ten - Maryland and Wisconsin are ranked, but this is a tournament where almost any good team can catch fire and win it.

So if this happens, reasonably 18 at large bids are up for grabs. While an RPI of 36 appears to be in the mix, that's far too close for comfort as far as I'm concerned.

Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Colorado State, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Indiana, Xavier, Temple, Ole Miss all are unranked and have better RPIs than SJU.

On analysis, it appears you could be right - the current situation allows for a margin of 9 bids available at SJU's current RPI or above. We'll see.
 
Can we all at least agree on this...

Two wins- any two wins- between these last 3 games and BET gets us in.

Running the math I see no way it doesn't. Our RPI would be mid 30's at that point.
Click to expand...

Disagree. If we win one out of three BE regular season games and finish 9-9 in conference, and then win just one BET game, that means we lose the next one. That would put our conference total record at 10-10 and at 11-2 OOC at 21-12. I wouldn't argue if we got in with that, but I don't think you can take that to the bank.
Click to expand...

Our RPI would be in the 33-36 range if we win one more regular season and one BET (and lose the one after). How can you say that's not enough? When, in history, has that ever happened?
Click to expand...

All I know is that only 5 Big East teams in 30 some-odd years have gotten bids with .500 conference records. One of them UCONN won the BET to secure their bid and won the national championship. When you consider those statistics includes the glory years when the Big East had far more prestige than today. Right now 21 conferences with unranked teams will get bids. With 68 teams getting bids and the top 25 teams assured bids, that's 46 bids right there. Now when you factor in that there will be some unranked teams pulling upsets to win their conference and an automatic bid, that will reduce the number of at large bids from 22, down to however many teams pull upsets.

HEre is a breakdown of conferences where this could happen:

1) American Atlantic. SMU is the only ranked team in conference. Tulsa, Temple, Cinncinati, Memphis and even UCONN could knock them off in the tournament to secure a bid.

2) Big East: Reasonably, Georgetown now unranked could win the BET and steal a bid from a ranked team, who will them get an at large

3) A10 - VCU is only ranked team but there are a host of teams that could knock them off.

4) Big Ten - Maryland and Wisconsin are ranked, but this is a tournament where almost any good team can catch fire and win it.

So if this happens, reasonably 18 at large bids are up for grabs. While an RPI of 36 appears to be in the mix, that's far too close for comfort as far as I'm concerned.

Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Colorado State, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Indiana, Xavier, Temple, Ole Miss all are unranked and have better RPIs than SJU.

On analysis, it appears you could be right - the current situation allows for a margin of 9 bids available at SJU's current RPI or above. We'll see.
Click to expand...

Beast, I think you are overthinking this a little too much. Overall record is almost irrelevant as is conference record. RPI, top 50 W/L record, SOS are probably the most important.

Remember, the 2011 season we were 21-11 and we made it in as a 6 seed. Last season we were 20-12 (a one game difference) and we didn't make the tournament.
 
Beast I don't agree. And a team like Georgetown is already a lock according to Lunardi. There's no reason to think there will be an absurd amount of auto bids taken.

The general rule is if you're top 48, 49 RPI you'll get in. Mid 30s would absolutely not be a problem.

Edit: and what do you mean by ranked teams? AP ranking means nothing (Georgetown is actually 26 and there's 3 BE teams in the top 25). But again AP is irrelevant it's all about RPI.
 
What to root for tonight:

Texas (17-10, No. 41) at West Virginia, 7 p.m., ESPN2 (West Virginia)

LSU (19-8, No. 53) at Auburn, 7 p.m., ESPNU (Auburn)

N.C. State (16-11, No. 52) at North Carolina, 8 p.m., ESPN3 (UNC)

Boston College at Pitt (18-10, No. 36), 9 p.m., ESPNU (BC)

Texas A&M (19-7, No. 33) at Arkansas, 9 p.m., ESPN (Arkansas)

New Mexico at Boise State (20-7, No. 42), 11 p.m., ESPNU (New Mexico)
Click to expand...

I'm thinking go with Texas in the game. I know Texas is #42 in the rpi, but WVU is #23. Thinking if WVU loses at home to Texas that they might fall behind SJU. Just hope Texas wouldn't leap us.

I'd add Nova beating #21 Providence. They wouldn't fall back much, but if they win at Villanova they would probably move up 5-6 spots.
I don't think we really need to be concerned with #52 NC St or #54 LSU, 19 and 21 spots behind us. Every other game I agree with.
 
What to root for tonight:

Texas (17-10, No. 41) at West Virginia, 7 p.m., ESPN2 (West Virginia)

LSU (19-8, No. 53) at Auburn, 7 p.m., ESPNU (Auburn)

N.C. State (16-11, No. 52) at North Carolina, 8 p.m., ESPN3 (UNC)

Boston College at Pitt (18-10, No. 36), 9 p.m., ESPNU (BC)

Texas A&M (19-7, No. 33) at Arkansas, 9 p.m., ESPN (Arkansas)

New Mexico at Boise State (20-7, No. 42), 11 p.m., ESPNU (New Mexico)
Click to expand...

I'm thinking go with Texas in the game. I know Texas is #42 in the rpi, but WVU is #23. Thinking if WVU loses at home to Texas that they might fall behind SJU. Just hope Texas wouldn't leap us.

I'd add Nova beating #21 Providence. They wouldn't fall back much, but if they win at Villanova they would probably move up 5-6 spots.
I don't think we really need to be concerned with #52 NC St or #54 LSU, 19 and 21 spots behind us. Every other game I agree with.
Click to expand...

In terms of simply making the tournament we need to hope teams around 40-60 lose.

If however we expect to finish the season strong and get a good seeding then we'd want teams in the 20s to lose.
 
What to root for tonight:

Texas (17-10, No. 41) at West Virginia, 7 p.m., ESPN2 (West Virginia)

LSU (19-8, No. 53) at Auburn, 7 p.m., ESPNU (Auburn)

N.C. State (16-11, No. 52) at North Carolina, 8 p.m., ESPN3 (UNC)

Boston College at Pitt (18-10, No. 36), 9 p.m., ESPNU (BC)

Texas A&M (19-7, No. 33) at Arkansas, 9 p.m., ESPN (Arkansas)

New Mexico at Boise State (20-7, No. 42), 11 p.m., ESPNU (New Mexico)
Click to expand...

I'm thinking go with Texas in the game. I know Texas is #42 in the rpi, but WVU is #23. Thinking if WVU loses at home to Texas that they might fall behind SJU. Just hope Texas wouldn't leap us.

I'd add Nova beating #21 Providence. They wouldn't fall back much, but if they win at Villanova they would probably move up 5-6 spots.
I don't think we really need to be concerned with #52 NC St or #54 LSU, 19 and 21 spots behind us. Every other game I agree with.
Click to expand...

In terms of simply making the tournament we need to hope teams around 40-60 lose.

If however we expect to finish the season strong and get a good seeding then we'd want teams in the 20s to lose.
Click to expand...

Well you know where my head is at, I'm expecting a strong finish, to hell with just making it. I'm greedy, what can I say. I want it all.
 
Can we all at least agree on this...

Two wins- any two wins- between these last 3 games and BET gets us in.

Running the math I see no way it doesn't. Our RPI would be mid 30's at that point.
Click to expand...

Disagree. If we win one out of three BE regular season games and finish 9-9 in conference, and then win just one BET game, that means we lose the next one. That would put our conference total record at 10-10 and at 11-2 OOC at 21-12. I wouldn't argue if we got in with that, but I don't think you can take that to the bank.
Click to expand...

Our RPI would be in the 33-36 range if we win one more regular season and one BET (and lose the one after). How can you say that's not enough? When, in history, has that ever happened?
Click to expand...

All I know is that only 5 Big East teams in 30 some-odd years have gotten bids with .500 conference records. One of them UCONN won the BET to secure their bid and won the national championship. When you consider those statistics includes the glory years when the Big East had far more prestige than today. Right now 21 conferences with unranked teams will get bids. With 68 teams getting bids and the top 25 teams assured bids, that's 46 bids right there. Now when you factor in that there will be some unranked teams pulling upsets to win their conference and an automatic bid, that will reduce the number of at large bids from 22, down to however many teams pull upsets.

HEre is a breakdown of conferences where this could happen:

1) American Atlantic. SMU is the only ranked team in conference. Tulsa, Temple, Cinncinati, Memphis and even UCONN could knock them off in the tournament to secure a bid.

2) Big East: Reasonably, Georgetown now unranked could win the BET and steal a bid from a ranked team, who will them get an at large

3) A10 - VCU is only ranked team but there are a host of teams that could knock them off.

4) Big Ten - Maryland and Wisconsin are ranked, but this is a tournament where almost any good team can catch fire and win it.

So if this happens, reasonably 18 at large bids are up for grabs. While an RPI of 36 appears to be in the mix, that's far too close for comfort as far as I'm concerned.

Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Colorado State, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Indiana, Xavier, Temple, Ole Miss all are unranked and have better RPIs than SJU.

On analysis, it appears you could be right - the current situation allows for a margin of 9 bids available at SJU's current RPI or above. We'll see.
Click to expand...

Northern Iowa is the 10th ranked team in this weeks AP poll.
 
Lunardi doing a Q&A on facebook right now, was asked about St Johns..

Bill Dwyer Do you have St John's in
Like · Reply · 9 mins

ESPN College Basketball Joe: "Yes, and fairly comfortably after beating Xavier last night."
 
What's syracuses RPI?


Because it could jump notably if they beat Notre dame at Notre dame, where they currently lead 20-15
 
Looking ahead we likely will finish 4th or 5th in BE standings (that dreaded 2:30 weekday BE tourney game). Would you guys rather a) face Butler and avenge those 2 losses or b) face PC and authoritatively stamp 3-0 season on them.

Personally I'd like to take on Butler, prefer being the hunter rather than hunted.
Click to expand...

It's a stretch to think we can beat Providence 3x in the same season. Bring on Butler.
Click to expand...

Correct, didn't happen in 75 in the NIT
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top