Zach article/Our soft OOC schedule
- Thread starter monte
- Start date
beast of the east
Active member
Basically he is saying that 4 out of the 11 OOC games are competitive, which isn't so bad. Considering the tough Big East schedule where 12-8 in conference might be a reasonable high water mark for this team, going 2-2 in competitive games and running the table in non-competitive OOC games could get them a dance ticket at 21-10. This is nothing different than all but the elite teams who can afford more competitive OOC games, especially if they are in weaker conferences top to bottom (bottom is very important when considering strength of league).
That being said, I love having competitive OOC games early, which give you a much better yardstick of where we may be headed overall.
That being said, I love having competitive OOC games early, which give you a much better yardstick of where we may be headed overall.
I love Anderson and Cragg but you could not have created a more inefficient OOC schedule for a team with legit tournament aspirations. They will have 0 OOC games against NET/Kenpom teams in the top 125 or so (depending on how Colgate ends up) where they are anything less that a 5 point underdog or have better than a 1 in 3 chance of winning. It is almost like they went out of their way to not get Q1 wins. Not having 4th and 5th games against top 75 teams is bad and playing Pitt as one of your 3 power 5 teams is really terrible planning.
Agreed Paultz. This also, as we've discussed, underscores the importance of roster continuity to the degree possible. An upgrade in talent may be offset by the loss of so many players from last year's team. Too early to say, and nothing we can do about it, but better talent does not always equate to a better season. Time will tell.Paultzman post=443126 said:
beast of the east
Active member
Honestly feel there is little comparison to last years team in terms of talent, experience, depth, and size/strength. But to your point, that's why you have to play the games.Monte post=443131 said:
Would have loved to have had GWill and Moore(if his head was screwed on right) back this season. I think we would have easily been a top 25 team with those 2 added in to this year's mix. Both for their skill sets and for continuity. But it is what it is.Beast of the East post=443132 said:
Did anyone check if Zach updated the date on this article since he writes it every year. Here are some quick statistics on Big East tournament teams since the league went back to its roots in 2013.
2013 - 4 teams in, worst conference record to receive a bid 10-8
2014 - 6 teams in, worst conference record 9-9
2015 - 5 teams in, worst conference record 10-8
2016 - 7 teams in, worst conference record 9-9
2017 - 6 teams in, worst conference record 9-9
2018 - 4 teams in, worst conference record 8-10
2019 - NA
2020 - 4 teams in, worst at large record 11-6, worst record 7-9 (Georgetown won BE tournament)
So over the last seven applicable years roughly half of the league has earned bids (5.14 per year,) And other than last year hanging around .500 in the league was the key. But last year was a complete mess, as Covid cancelled game after game, skewing the NET numbers.
Now if SJU is clawing for a bid and ends up 10-10, a good OOC win could make the difference I suppose. Personally, this year I wouldn't care. Last years team went 10-9, so even if you chalk up the home game against UCONN that didn't get played as a loss that's 10-10. That team had one player (Toro) who is not currently on an NCAA roster. So it's not a very difficult leap to know SJU was setup for a better year this year. Players improve year-over-year and everyone was returning.
Now a few returned and many transferred. The overwhelming narrative is that the new players are an upgrade. That narrative exists both here and in the media. And I'm not saying it's wrong. But if it's correct then the last thing any SJU fan should have to do in March is look at the NCAA Bubble. With a roster upgrade the team can't get a safe 8 seed? If they don't this season is a failure in my mind. But I think they will accomplish that.
SJU plays in the Big East not the MEAC. They will play plenty of Quad whatever games to prove they are an NCAA caliber team, in conference. They need to win them already.
2013 - 4 teams in, worst conference record to receive a bid 10-8
2014 - 6 teams in, worst conference record 9-9
2015 - 5 teams in, worst conference record 10-8
2016 - 7 teams in, worst conference record 9-9
2017 - 6 teams in, worst conference record 9-9
2018 - 4 teams in, worst conference record 8-10
2019 - NA
2020 - 4 teams in, worst at large record 11-6, worst record 7-9 (Georgetown won BE tournament)
So over the last seven applicable years roughly half of the league has earned bids (5.14 per year,) And other than last year hanging around .500 in the league was the key. But last year was a complete mess, as Covid cancelled game after game, skewing the NET numbers.
Now if SJU is clawing for a bid and ends up 10-10, a good OOC win could make the difference I suppose. Personally, this year I wouldn't care. Last years team went 10-9, so even if you chalk up the home game against UCONN that didn't get played as a loss that's 10-10. That team had one player (Toro) who is not currently on an NCAA roster. So it's not a very difficult leap to know SJU was setup for a better year this year. Players improve year-over-year and everyone was returning.
Now a few returned and many transferred. The overwhelming narrative is that the new players are an upgrade. That narrative exists both here and in the media. And I'm not saying it's wrong. But if it's correct then the last thing any SJU fan should have to do in March is look at the NCAA Bubble. With a roster upgrade the team can't get a safe 8 seed? If they don't this season is a failure in my mind. But I think they will accomplish that.
SJU plays in the Big East not the MEAC. They will play plenty of Quad whatever games to prove they are an NCAA caliber team, in conference. They need to win them already.
MarkRedman
Well-known member
I love our A.D. but I totally disagree with his statement about our strength of non conference schedule. We are playing only two legit teams (Indiana and Kansas) in our 11 game non conference schedule. Yes, Colgate made the NCAA last year but, due to COVID, I believe that they only played 5 different teams in order to amass their wins so their record is a bit suspect IMO. Pitt is terrible and were picked next to last in the preseason ACC poll.
We should have played at least one more legit Power 5 team before starting league play. The soft non conference schedule can hurt us in two ways: (1) these games don't adequately prepare us for the Big East grind that we will soon be facing and (2) a gaudy record propped up by lots of wins over cupcakes may hurt us when NCAA at large teams are selected, either in being selected at all if we are a bubble team or in our seeding if we are comfortably in the mix. We've certainly seen that happen before.
Adding one or two more "legit" opponents would still have enabled us to play enough cupcakes to build team chemistry, etc that CMA alluded to but given us an opportunity to learn and grow more as a team before the start of B.E. play.
We should have played at least one more legit Power 5 team before starting league play. The soft non conference schedule can hurt us in two ways: (1) these games don't adequately prepare us for the Big East grind that we will soon be facing and (2) a gaudy record propped up by lots of wins over cupcakes may hurt us when NCAA at large teams are selected, either in being selected at all if we are a bubble team or in our seeding if we are comfortably in the mix. We've certainly seen that happen before.
Adding one or two more "legit" opponents would still have enabled us to play enough cupcakes to build team chemistry, etc that CMA alluded to but given us an opportunity to learn and grow more as a team before the start of B.E. play.
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I want St. John’s to play more top flight teams. If we play well in Big East play it won’t matter. However, if we are borderline we will get hurt.
Before the Indiana game I heard IU Coach Woodson about scheduling them at the Garden. Why can’t we get with them or a team like them to schedule a game at MSG? How hard can this be. Getting teams to come to NY can’t be that difficult.
Before the Indiana game I heard IU Coach Woodson about scheduling them at the Garden. Why can’t we get with them or a team like them to schedule a game at MSG? How hard can this be. Getting teams to come to NY can’t be that difficult.
Too much assumption that if we're on the bubble, it's going to be with another Big East team. In truth, that probably won't be the case.
Unless it's a dominant regular season champ from a lower conference that loses it's tournament, odds are, if we're on the bubble with someone, they'll have similar resumes to us. Even if they have better wins, they'll probably have worse losses, especially if they come from another league.
Unless it's a dominant regular season champ from a lower conference that loses it's tournament, odds are, if we're on the bubble with someone, they'll have similar resumes to us. Even if they have better wins, they'll probably have worse losses, especially if they come from another league.
And Marquette further enhanced the Big East's profile by beating yet another Power 5 school, previously undefeated Ole Miss, last night. Beat our OOC opponents other than Indy & Kansas and win 12 games in the Big East, which by definition would includes lots of good wins, and we will not have to worry about any bubble.
Marquette will have 6, maybe 7, OOC games against P5 conferences this season, and only 4 "cupcakes."NCJohnnie post=443161 said:
All that said about the possible ramifications of a soft OOC, the only positive I am now taking from it is that CMA figures out his new players and rotations before the Kansas game and a grueling BE schedule.
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Unless I'm ready their roster incorrectly, Marquette is made up almost completely of newcomers. In fact, of the 10 kids who have played in the first 4 games, 8 are freshmen and the other 2 are transfers. I wasn't aware of it, although many of you may have been. And while there's no way of knowing how the season will play out, kudos to Shaka for getting off to such a good start with a brand new group.NCJohnnie post=443161 said:
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