Providence Game

[postell25]

If we want to have any chance at an at large, beating a top 50 RPI team on the road has to happen. It's why the Creighton loss hurts so much. Beating the #8 RPI team in their building would have put us in striking distance despite a sub .500 conference record. We have to get this game tonight and either Creighton or Nova to still have a chance.

**Disclaimer**-- I am 100% aware that an at large is pretty much out of the question but that doesn't stop me from trying to still find a path.

 

[SJU1512]

If we want to have any chance at an at large, beating a top 50 RPI team on the road has to happen. It's why the Creighton loss hurts so much. Beating the #8 RPI team in their building would have put us in striking distance despite a sub .500 conference record. We have to get this game tonight and either Creighton or Nova to still have a chance.

**Disclaimer**-- I am 100% aware that an at large is pretty much out of the question but that doesn't stop me from trying to still find a path.

I have been on the pessimistic side of this equation, but we've played ourselves back to where an at-large is not completely out of the question. If we get a win tonight that brings us to 14-9 with 8 to play. If we went 6-2 over those 8, that's 20-11, 10-8. At that point, possibly 1 win, and almost certainly 2, in the conference tourney would get us in without winning it. We'd also be 13-4 in our last 17, which is just about the only advantage to losing as much as we did early. The committee gives an edge, between two teams with the same fringe record, to the team that comes through the finish line strong as opposed to the one that comes in limping.

It's still incredibly long odds, but it's achievable. There's no margin for error and they have to get a win tonight. If they do that, the prospect exists that they can maneuver the last 8 games in a way that places us on the bubble, and they have a chance to really generate some excitement Sunday night.

 

[41ndone]

If we want to have any chance at an at large, beating a top 50 RPI team on the road has to happen. It's why the Creighton loss hurts so much. Beating the #8 RPI team in their building would have put us in striking distance despite a sub .500 conference record. We have to get this game tonight and either Creighton or Nova to still have a chance.

**Disclaimer**-- I am 100% aware that an at large is pretty much out of the question but that doesn't stop me from trying to still find a path.

As Tug McGraw said, "ya gotta Believe"

 

[redfazed]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein 2h
St. John's PG Phil Greene has played 502 minutes this season and only committed seven turnovers. Underrated player. #sjubb

Of course he fails to mention the lack of assists or the high volume of low-quality shots taken.
Phil has a role to play, just hope it does not come at the expense of Jordan.

 

[ccnobz]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein 2h
St. John's PG Phil Greene has played 502 minutes this season and only committed seven turnovers. Underrated player. #sjubb

Of course he fails to mention the lack of assists or the high volume of low-quality shots taken.
Phil has a role to play, just hope it does not come at the expense of Jordan.

I know he dribbles in circles, and is not a PG. But I don't agree with your low quality shots taken- I can't remember me ever saying "NO" when he shot the ball. He doesn't force shots imo

 

[GardenCity62]

That is a remarkable stat and not turning the ball over is critical. But too
often he holds the ball for an extra dribble before giving it up to a player in scoring position. By the time they get the ball the scoring opportunity is gone .
That skill seems to be one that a player either has or doesn't and is not one that can be developed.

 

[SJU1512]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein 2h
St. John's PG Phil Greene has played 502 minutes this season and only committed seven turnovers. Underrated player. #sjubb

Of course he fails to mention the lack of assists or the high volume of low-quality shots taken.
Phil has a role to play, just hope it does not come at the expense of Jordan.

I know he dribbles in circles, and is not a PG. But I don't agree with your low quality shots taken- I can't remember me ever saying "NO" when he shot the ball. He doesn't force shots imo

I think it's somewhere in the middle. I'm a fan of players who have mid-range games, but mid-range jumpers have been statistically proven to be lower-quality in the sense that risk isn't worth the reward (as compared to the lower risk/lower reward shot at the rim as well as the higher risk/higher reward shot behind the 3PT line). Mid-range jumpers are most effective when part of a diversified offensive attack, and the issue with PG is that's not the case, he's very heavily reliant on them. As you mention, they aren't "bad" shots in the sense that you're going to jump out of your seat, but they aren't high-percentage shots either, especially when you shoot them in the quantity PG does.

 

[Marillac]

If we want to have any chance at an at large, beating a top 50 RPI team on the road has to happen. It's why the Creighton loss hurts so much. Beating the #8 RPI team in their building would have put us in striking distance despite a sub .500 conference record. We have to get this game tonight and either Creighton or Nova to still have a chance.

**Disclaimer**-- I am 100% aware that an at large is pretty much out of the question but that doesn't stop me from trying to still find a path.

We are most definitely still in the at-lar contention, and we don't have to be perfect either. Have to win tonight, though!

 

[NYCRedmen]

In a perfect world, both PC & St. John's make the NCAA this year, along with Xavier, Villanova & Creighton. The reality is that this scenario is not going to happen and only one of those two will have a shot, assuming whoever it is continues to win after tonight. We have even less room for error than PC. This is why tonight's game is so critical for us. If we win tonight, 3 of our next 4 are at home (with the 1 road game being at Seton Hall which I am sure will have quite a few SJU fans). PC on the other hand has 2 straight road games (Xavier & G'Town) following tonight, so a win for them would be very big before that stretch. Should be fun.

 

[Red.Fans]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein 2h
St. John's PG Phil Greene has played 502 minutes this season and only committed seven turnovers. Underrated player. #sjubb

Of course he fails to mention the lack of assists or the high volume of low-quality shots taken.
Phil has a role to play, just hope it does not come at the expense of Jordan.

I know he dribbles in circles, and is not a PG. But I don't agree with your low quality shots taken- I can't remember me ever saying "NO" when he shot the ball. He doesn't force shots imo

I think it's somewhere in the middle. I'm a fan of players who have mid-range games, but mid-range jumpers have been statistically proven to be lower-quality in the sense that risk isn't worth the reward (as compared to the lower risk/lower reward shot at the rim as well as the higher risk/higher reward shot behind the 3PT line). Mid-range jumpers are most effective when part of a diversified offensive attack, and the issue with PG is that's not the case, he's very heavily reliant on them. As you mention, they aren't "bad" shots in the sense that you're going to jump out of your seat, but they aren't high-percentage shots either, especially when you shoot them in the quantity PG does.

A big part of the equation is when the shot is taken. Not just the shot clock but if as another poster mentioned, we should be taking it at the defense to draw a foul then a mid range jumper can be a bad shot. If an opposing player is in foul trouble, taking it inside can also increase the percentage both of the shot itself and the scoring percentage since the defensive player may back off rather than get called for the foul and/or the offensive player goes to the FT line. A telling stat with Green is the low number of times that he's been to the line. Compare him to Harrison who is ostensibly playing the same position. Even if you average the number of shots taken, Harrison goes to the line much more frequently. As a team, Green is 3rd in Minutes, 8th in FT attempts.

FTs as I frequently say are a key part of a game plan and it is amazing to me how poorly this is understood and practiced. It can be key in that as a coach you overlook it and it bites you or if you understand that FTs are indicative both of scoring and of the impact that they have to the other team where they have to back off defensive intensity and/or remove a player. FTs btw are a big reason why Providence is winning games.

 

[simplyred]

If taking it to the hole is not his strong suit, then I'd rather him take the mid-range jumper. Branch can get by his man but he can't finish. I do n't want him driving inside. Jordan gets to the basket and finishes. I don't want him settling for the jumper. The player has to do what he is capable of doing.

 

[paultzman]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein 2h
St. John's PG Phil Greene has played 502 minutes this season and only committed seven turnovers. Underrated player. #sjubb

Of course he fails to mention the lack of assists or the high volume of low-quality shots taken.
Phil has a role to play, just hope it does not come at the expense of Jordan.

I know he dribbles in circles, and is not a PG. But I don't agree with your low quality shots taken- I can't remember me ever saying "NO" when he shot the ball. He doesn't force shots imo

I think it's somewhere in the middle. I'm a fan of players who have mid-range games, but mid-range jumpers have been statistically proven to be lower-quality in the sense that risk isn't worth the reward (as compared to the lower risk/lower reward shot at the rim as well as the higher risk/higher reward shot behind the 3PT line). Mid-range jumpers are most effective when part of a diversified offensive attack, and the issue with PG is that's not the case, he's very heavily reliant on them. As you mention, they aren't "bad" shots in the sense that you're going to jump out of your seat, but they aren't high-percentage shots either, especially when you shoot them in the quantity PG does.

A big part of the equation is when the shot is taken. Not just the shot clock but if as another poster mentioned, we should be taking it at the defense to draw a foul then a mid range jumper can be a bad shot. If an opposing player is in foul trouble, taking it inside can also increase the percentage both of the shot itself and the scoring percentage since the defensive player may back off rather than get called for the foul and/or the offensive player goes to the FT line. A telling stat with Green is the low number of times that he's been to the line. Compare him to Harrison who is ostensibly playing the same position. Even if you average the number of shots taken, Harrison goes to the line much more frequently. As a team, Green is 3rd in Minutes, 8th in FT attempts.

FTs as I frequently say are a key part of a game plan and it is amazing to me how poorly this is understood and practiced. It can be key in that as a coach you overlook it and it bites you or if you understand that FTs are indicative both of scoring and of the impact that they have to the other team where they have to back off defensive intensity and/or remove a player. FTs btw are a big reason why Providence is winning games.

Super point on the FTs.

 

[Red.Fans]

If taking it to the hole is not his strong suit, then I'd rather him take the mid-range jumper. Branch can get by his man but he can't finish. I do n't want him driving inside. Jordan gets to the basket and finishes. I don't want him settling for the jumper. The player has to do what he is capable of doing.

Yes I agree, but it is a team sport. So if the team needs to be going to the hole but this is not the strong suit of a player, then he should not be on the floor or at least not handling the ball or taking the shot. Best case, this is where you should be getting an assist and crashing the offensive boards, not taking a shot.

 

[simplyred]

We agree he is not a Pg and does not rack up assists. He seldom takes the ball to the hole. He is an adequate, but not great 3 point shooter. He has decent shooting numbers, so the mid-range is what he does best. He should get fewer minutes than the other three guards, but when he is on the floor, he has to play his game. That is the mid-range. The only other alternative is to never play him. I don't think he deserves that.

Funny we all argue that the team is full of athletes who can run and jump (not true, btw) and no skill players. Yet, we bash a kid who doesn't try to jump over the opponent but, rather, finds the open spot in the defense and takes his shot.

 

[paultzman]

We agree he is not a Pg and does not rack up assists. He seldom takes the ball to the hole. He is an adequate, but not great 3 point shooter. He has decent shooting numbers, so the mid-range is what he does best. He should get fewer minutes than the other three guards, but when he is on the floor, he has to play his game. That is the mid-range. The only other alternative is to never play him. I don't think he deserves that.

Funny we all argue that the team is full of athletes who can run and jump (not true, btw) and no skill players. Yet, we bash a kid who doesn't try to jump over the opponent but, rather, finds the open spot in the defense and takes his shot.

In my opinion reasonable posters don't attack him, but have concerns about the major minutes he has played and not having much value at PG.

 

[simplyred]

On those points, there is almost universal consensus...although I had no problem with his minutes before Jordan started playing well. Since Jordan's emergence, Phil's minutes have gone down.

 

[Red.Fans]

We agree he is not a Pg and does not rack up assists. He seldom takes the ball to the hole. He is an adequate, but not great 3 point shooter. He has decent shooting numbers, so the mid-range is what he does best. He should get fewer minutes than the other three guards, but when he is on the floor, he has to play his game. That is the mid-range. The only other alternative is to never play him. I don't think he deserves that.

Funny we all argue that the team is full of athletes who can run and jump (not true, btw) and no skill players. Yet, we bash a kid who doesn't try to jump over the opponent but, rather, finds the open spot in the defense and takes his shot.

Trying not to bash or attack him or any player just stick to the facts. For Green to be more meaningful to the team he needs to shoot less unless it is a reward for crashing the offensive boards. Using him as the primary ball handler is totally mystifying and I question the strategy.

Yesterday I was at a CYO game where the coach was enamored of one of his players who was a great athlete and physically advanced over all the other kids. For the coach, this translated into having him be the primary ball handler. The kid looked great bringing the ball up the court but literally about 80% of his trips the other team put out a hand and stole the ball from him with ease. He was fatally flawed as a ball handler despite superficially looking good at it. Had the coach used this kid properly he was a great asset. He was a good defender and good rebounder and very fast he also nailed his free throws. Instead their offense was completely disjointed every time his "star" player was on the court. The offense never got into a rhythm. They lost the game despite shooting a higher FG% and FT%. The other team had a lot more shots attempted because of the huge turnover disparity. Point being that I think the coach used this player WAY wrong just as our coach has used Green incorrectly.

 

[beast of the east]

Ok. The season really rests on tonight, and there is no longer even the sliver of a margin should we lose. WHEN we win tonight, we will have lost two at home and won two on the road. We have to run the table at home - doable - and then win two additional games on the road to have a slender chance of a big. More likely we have to win tonight, run the table at home, and only lose one more road game. So frickin tough, that essentially for us, the NCAA tournament starts tonight. If you get swept by Providence, no matter how improved they are (and they are a good team), we don't deserve to dream anymore.

I feel confident. Not overconfident, but if our guys play the way we have the last 4 games, I like our chances. Guys are understanding roles. We are deeper up front now that GG has fought his way (good choice of words) into the rotation, Obekpa shows signs of life, and ROY Sampson has returned. Each guard is playing reasonably well, and sooner or later Jordan is just going to go off. If Harrison brings an A game, 9-16 or so with 2-3 bombs, we can get the hell out of PRovidence with a W before it snows.

 

[Moose]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein 2h
St. John's PG Phil Greene has played 502 minutes this season and only committed seven turnovers. Underrated player. #sjubb

Of course he fails to mention the lack of assists or the high volume of low-quality shots taken.
Phil has a role to play, just hope it does not come at the expense of Jordan.

I know he dribbles in circles, and is not a PG. But I don't agree with your low quality shots taken- I can't remember me ever saying "NO" when he shot the ball. He doesn't force shots imo

What?????

 

[paultzman]

@StJohnsBBall: #SJUBB Starters (Third Time; Cuse and Fordham): G Jordan, Greene IV, Harrison. F Sampson. C Obekpa. Approximately 20 mins to tip!