I don't post often, but I do follow this board & team as they have been a part of my life for >25 years. A couple of take-aways as I was not surprised we lost to Wisconsin, which was much more disciplined & better coached even though we seemed to be more talented.
1. I think this team will go as far as Jordan will take them. I know its tough to put that on a frosh PG, but from what I saw he can/will be special and its the only real difference maker I saw between last year & this. Harrison looked about the same, Sampson showed some improvement but still settles for the J, and Sanchez with 1 year may have flashes but I didn't see an NBA caliber player. I hope they prove me wrong. The majority of 2011 was because of Hardy, who had a lights out year but also thus was able to demand attention leaving open looks for the rest of the team. I remember Kennedy benefitting the most from this on the wing.
2. Poor shooting a direct reflection of lack of offensive sets. A lot of discussion on here about our poor shooting, but how many open 3's do we actually generate? Most all of Harrison's are rushed / contested. Hooper's shot was on the move with a defender close. Compare to Wisconsin (and many other teams we played last year) whose shooters had their feet set ready to shoot when they caught the ball. I'm sure Harrison / Hooper can convert a higher percentage if the offense can get them similar looks, but it will require dribble penetration from Jordan, good ball movement on wings, and a dominant big man who demands double teams against man-to-man or breaks the zone in the middle & is smart / capable enough to kick it out to the open guy. Can Jordan or Harrison succeed a-la Hardy in 2011 in drawing multiple defenders & then making the right pass - this will be key as unfortunately I haven't seen disciplined ball movement, nor a big man who fits the bill as Sampson is a face-up player who isn't a great passer and it doesn't look like Sanchez is much different in that he seems more comfortable starting from the outside, although perhaps he can be the guy in the middle against the zone as he can pass. Gift is the closest we have to a back-to-the basket player, and he doesn't command the double team.
3. Foul shooting even more critical this year - with the new rules we'll be in the bonus / double bonus a much higher % of the game. This means our foul shooting will play a larger role in our success. This scares me, although the 1st game has shown some improvement here (13/16 in 2nd half)
4. Defense - consistently allowing open looks. With this teams athleticism / quickness and depth I'm not sure why we don't play straight up man-to-man, albeit it needs to be more disciplined on the ball with the new rules. Unless the other team has 1-2 dominant big men (like Josh Smith at G-Town) I'm not really a fan of the zone as time and time we seem to be over-aggressive leaving open looks against almost any team that has a coach with good offensive sets & moves the ball.
Sorry for the long post not meant to be anything more than sharing my perspectives. Unfortunately I think the coaching is marginal, as our success in 2011 was largely due to Hardy's ability to shoot & break down defenses. I haven't seen anything different in the last 3 years which is why I believe that our success will ultimately come down to the talent of whoever has the ball most often, which I personally hope is Jordan from what I've seen on the floor.
Thanks, MIT Storm. I'm sorry that one of the few thoughtful posts on this thread sort of got lost. I pretty much agree with you on all points.
It seems to me that the Wisconsin game was a product of our coaching philosophy, and that will be true of the rest of the season as well. That philosophy is to (1) recruit athletic players who should thrive in the open court (but who do not necessarily have a great understanding of the game); (2) hope for open-court play that will allow them to succeed; (3) run a limited number of halfcourt sets generally designed to find a one-on-one matchup somewhere on the floor; and (4) play primarily zone defense.
I am not personally a fan of run-and-gun basketball. Having said that, if that's your philosophy and your personnel then that's fine. But then you have to press, trap and play man defense to take advantage of your depth and your skill set. Playing the zone totally contradicts the offensive philosophy. It plays into the hands of our opponents, all of whom know that we are much less dangerous in the halfcourt.
To me, the limited offense and the zone defense are both just coaching shortcuts that take the burden off of teaching the game. As you noted, we don't even play the zone well, since every opponent seems to somehow rotate the ball around for open 3s that we somehow never seem to get there to defend.
And yet, somehow over the course of the season the team will gel. It will find some big wins on talent and motivation, and lose some games it shouldn't to teams that may not have as much talent but are better coached.
Just like the UCLA years, the team will go as far as the talent can take it.