Chasing Nova

[SJUalum98]

I continue to be amazed at the "us vs. Nova" logic. It is not us vs. them. If it wasn't for a certain poster, this discussion probably wouldn't even be occurring. We're not chasing Nova. We're chasing #10.

I said last week that a Nova loss to Seton Hall is as crippling as any upcoming loss that we would have because of SH's poor RPI. Nova is a bubble team, we are not.

I'm looking moreso at what the other conference bubble teams are doing because ultimately there's only enough room and they are who we really are competing with. We've slipped even off the last 4 out. We can't afford any more losses, bottom line.

 

[L J S A]

In my attempt at bracketology, these are the numbers I believe we are facing:

One bid:
America East
Atlantic Sun
Big Sky
Big South
Big West
Colonial Athletic
Conference USA
Horizon
Ivy
MAAC
MEAC
Mid-American
Northeast
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Southern
Southland
Summitt
Sun Belt
SWAC
WAC

Two bids:
Missouri Valley
WCC

Three bids:
Mountain West

Four bids:
Atlantic 10

That leaves 36 open spots for the six major conferences. When you factor in absolute locks, the number drops further.

Current standings can be found here, and I'd like to hear other opinions about how we stack up. I tend to think there will be no spot for us at the adult table.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/standings

 

[MJDinkins]

I continue to be amazed at the "us vs. Nova" logic. It is not us vs. them. If it wasn't for a certain poster, this discussion probably wouldn't even be occurring. We're not chasing Nova. We're chasing #10.

I said last week that a Nova loss to Seton Hall is as crippling as any upcoming loss that we would have because of SH's poor RPI. Nova is a bubble team, we are not.

I'm looking moreso at what the other conference bubble teams are doing because ultimately there's only enough room and they are who we really are competing with. We've slipped even off the last 4 out. We can't afford any more losses, bottom line.

Agree for the most part. You've stated everything I mentioned last night.

The only part I may disagree with is we can't afford any more losses. I still think we could go 10-8, but I believe we'd have to win, at least, 2 games in the Big East Tournament (to get in). It's something I wouldn't wanna chance. So, our best bet is to win out, and go 11-7. I'm certainly not confident it'll happen. But I've seen stranger things.

 

[salty dog]

Johnnie's are no longer last four out.

This first four in last four out always confused me so excuse that, but that means we are worse off right? Or did you mean Nova's loss helped us?

Last four in means just that , they are the last four teams chosen for at large bids and they got the bids slightly
over the last four out. If you are not one of the last four out, you are number 5 to oblivion. This is based on
the committees view at selection time. Johnnie's value is dropping.

 

[LINY89]

I went to 2 exhibitions, midnight madness, G'Town (at MSG) and stayed after to see our girls beat Seton Hall, DePaul (at CA).

So technically 6 functions.

Officially 2 games.

3 actually you didn't count the women's game. One of the exhibitions by the way was right after Sandy. Probably one of the most eerie drives locally I've ever had. Will never forget seeing 10 army tanks in line going down the LIE. There was no traffic even at the CIP when it starts to get bad with people going to the Whitestone/Throgs Neck and LaGuardia/JFK. Anyway, I drive 49 miles like it's nothing to see games at CA and I don't mind the 1 hour 15 minute train ride to MSG. In fact, I routinely drive 49 miles each way just to see what new gear they have at the bookstore. It's just not easy to make games all the time when you have a ridiculously tight budget that needs to go to the basics first before I can spend $30-$50 at a game at MSG. Also I have late classes, so by the time I get out some games are already halfway over. I have gone right after my 3:30 classes before though...ends at 5:30, and I get to Queens from Oakdale by 6:15 ish, get my ticket and go to a 7 PM game. If you could see my room I have a SJ poster, SJ rally towel, Lavin bobblehead, SJ banner, SJ flag, 2 SJ jerseys, a SJ drawstring backpack, probably 5 SJ shirts, 3 SJ sweatshirts, 3 SJ hats, etc. In other words, once I graduate and get my first real job, I will be able to really enjoy games and sit in the 100's and still being able to put gas in my car! I'm not one of the fans you have to worry about...I try to draw other students in to gain more support.

 

[NYCShowtime]

Sorry guys but I am not buying it... Even if Nova loses their final two games and we win two out of our last three (which I am not seeing frankly), I still don't see us getting in over them... Their wins over Cuse and Louisville are way better than our resume... add on to the fact they beat us in head to head and I just don't see it...

At this point, only way we get in is by winning at least two of three, and then a run in the Big East Tournament to the finals or perhaps winning it, which again is near impossible...

NIT bound

hope I am wrong...

 

[westchesterjoe]

March Madness begins to get a hold of us about this time in late February. It is certainly fun to speculate about SJU and other team's possibilities for the NCAA and NIT.

We have 3 tough games ahead.. A improving PC team in their building, ND at ND and Marquette at home. Marquette could win the BE outright and seem to be on the rise. Knocking them off would mean a lot but, only if we win 1 of the other games, preferably ND.

PC would not be a quality win at this point.. ND and Marquette would be and we need quality wins to balance our bad losses, which are too many.. Many thought losing to Baylor, Murray State, San Fran and UNC-ASH wouldn't hurt us but,they have significantly. Throw in losing to Rutgers at home and the Nova loss in OT, early in the BE season and like they say, ALL GAMES count..

We need to play well in all 3 games, something we have not done in a month.. If we do and win 2 of 3 before the tourney, anything is possible.. Although getting blown out at home vs Marquette is not likely to get us good press at selection time..We might need an upset in the BE tourney to really get serious attention..

Without a healthy Branch, not the one we saw Sunday against Pitt, who appeared still not 100%,it's a difficult climb for Lavin's troops but, not beyond reach.

Thing is, ALL our guys need big games, not what we've seen lately. Let's hope it starts at PC..who have as much athleticism as we do and a skilled PG in Council and a big scorer in Cotton plus Batts. It's a tough game but, if you want to be considered a NCAA team, play your best.

 

[T6K0E6]

Its fun to find ourselves in this position, talking and speculating about the NCAA tourney and it actually being a possibility. We have come a long way in just 3 short years.

We are greedy New Yorker's not settling for anything less than perfection (you can thank the Yankees for that haha) thats why we dont tolerate a loss.

Looking at the big picture, we should be thankful for where we are, and see the sun rising out in the horizon. There are many forces outside of the program that are contributing and building a force that will support the success that is coming, but that is for another conversation.

Like i said before I am a sore loser but right now, sit back have a beer and donate. Remember just a few short years ago, the NIT was a hope.

 

[beast of the east]

Its fun to find ourselves in this position, talking and speculating about the NCAA tourney and it actually being a possibility. We have come a long way in just 3 short years.

We are greedy New Yorker's not settling for anything less than perfection (you can thank the Yankees for that haha) thats why we dont tolerate a loss.

Looking at the big picture, we should be thankful for where we are, and see the sun rising out in the horizon. There are many forces outside of the program that are contributing and building a force that will support the success that is coming, but that is for another conversation.

Like i said before I am a sore loser but right now, sit back have a beer and donate. Remember just a few short years ago, the NIT was a hope.

I will say this. I'd been to many NCAA games, and even the Final four. Travelling to Denver after a long ten year drought, was a distant second only to the Final Four experience. It was nice to know on the flight there and sitting waiting for our game, that we were competing for the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!

So the NIT is nice and a rasonable expectation to shoot for in the beginning of this season, but going to the dance is something I'll never take for granted again, even if we do it ten years straight.

 

[NYCRedmen]

I continue to be amazed at the "us vs. Nova" logic. It is not us vs. them. If it wasn't for a certain poster, this discussion probably wouldn't even be occurring. We're not chasing Nova. We're chasing #10.

I said last week that a Nova loss to Seton Hall is as crippling as any upcoming loss that we would have because of SH's poor RPI. Nova is a bubble team, we are not.

I'm looking moreso at what the other conference bubble teams are doing because ultimately there's only enough room and they are who we really are competing with. We've slipped even off the last 4 out. We can't afford any more losses, bottom line.

As the "certain poster" you are referring to, the reason I started the thread wasn't because we were chasing Nova but b/c from all accounts, the Big East will probably get 8 bids this year. I would be surprised if we get 9 but I guess it could happen. Having said that, when I started the thread it was b/c at that time there were 7 locks (Cincy was still in good shape) & Nova had not yet beaten Marquette (or least I wasn't aware of it) and we had not yet lost to Pitt. Given the schedule that Nova had left at the time, it was not inconceivable that they would lose 3 of their last four. We had 2 homes games left and a winnable road game. If things had played out the way we hoped, chances were probable that we could have leapfrogged Nova as the 8th team. Let me repeat that, chances were probable, I never said guaranteed. But there are always people here who have a crystal ball and have the answer to everything, you know, the same ones that saw Nova losing last night to The Hall lol. If you disagree with my scenario then you must believe that the Big East was going to get 9 bids, assuming we had taken care of business, which unfortunately we did not on Sunday. I would be shocked if the Big East gets 9 bids based on regular season play.

 

[austour]

I went to 2 exhibitions, midnight madness, G'Town (at MSG) and stayed after to see our girls beat Seton Hall, DePaul (at CA).

So technically 6 functions.

Officially 2 games.

3 actually you didn't count the women's game. One of the exhibitions by the way was right after Sandy. Probably one of the most eerie drives locally I've ever had. Will never forget seeing 10 army tanks in line going down the LIE. There was no traffic even at the CIP when it starts to get bad with people going to the Whitestone/Throgs Neck and LaGuardia/JFK. Anyway, I drive 49 miles like it's nothing to see games at CA and I don't mind the 1 hour 15 minute train ride to MSG. In fact, I routinely drive 49 miles each way just to see what new gear they have at the bookstore. It's just not easy to make games all the time when you have a ridiculously tight budget that needs to go to the basics first before I can spend $30-$50 at a game at MSG. Also I have late classes, so by the time I get out some games are already halfway over. I have gone right after my 3:30 classes before though...ends at 5:30, and I get to Queens from Oakdale by 6:15 ish, get my ticket and go to a 7 PM game. If you could see my room I have a SJ poster, SJ rally towel, Lavin bobblehead, SJ banner, SJ flag, 2 SJ jerseys, a SJ drawstring backpack, probably 5 SJ shirts, 3 SJ sweatshirts, 3 SJ hats, etc. In other words, once I graduate and get my first real job, I will be able to really enjoy games and sit in the 100's and still being able to put gas in my car! I'm not one of the fans you have to worry about...I try to draw other students in to gain more support.

I don't count women's games. Other than that I know you're a fan. I didn't read the whiny annoying part but I'm sure you're making what you deem your best effort.

 

[redmen2014champs]

I continue to be amazed at the "us vs. Nova" logic. It is not us vs. them. If it wasn't for a certain poster, this discussion probably wouldn't even be occurring. We're not chasing Nova. We're chasing #10.

I said last week that a Nova loss to Seton Hall is as crippling as any upcoming loss that we would have because of SH's poor RPI. Nova is a bubble team, we are not.

I'm looking moreso at what the other conference bubble teams are doing because ultimately there's only enough room and they are who we really are competing with. We've slipped even off the last 4 out. We can't afford any more losses, bottom line.

As the "certain poster" you are referring to, the reason I started the thread wasn't because we were chasing Nova but b/c from all accounts, the Big East will probably get 8 bids this year. I would be surprised if we get 9 but I guess it could happen. Having said that, when I started the thread it was b/c at that time there were 7 locks (Cincy was still in good shape) & Nova had not yet beaten Marquette (or least I wasn't aware of it) and we had not yet lost to Pitt. Given the schedule that Nova had left at the time, it was not inconceivable that they would lose 3 of their last four. We had 2 homes games left and a winnable road game. If things had played out the way we hoped, chances were probable that we could have leapfrogged Nova as the 8th team. Let me repeat that, chances were probable, I never said guaranteed. But there are always people here who have a crystal ball and have the answer to everything, you know, the same ones that saw Nova losing last night to The Hall lol. If you disagree with my scenario then you must believe that the Big East was going to get 9 bids, assuming we had taken care of business, which unfortunately we did not on Sunday. I would be shocked if the Big East gets 9 bids based on regular season play.

I am assuming that he did not mean you when referring to a "certain poster". I could be wrong but I believe that he was referring to someone else on the board that seemingly has a Villanova fetish.

 

[NYCRedmen]

I wasn't of aware of that, for record, if I am "certain poster" I'm not taking that as an insult, I was simply defending my thread. If it wasn't me, no harm no foul ; )

 

[salty dog]

Sadly the Johnnie's are chasing NOVA, as shown in the top 50 teams of the last 50 years (ESPN) survey.
Rank by the decade St John's tied for 40th all time
1962-69: 26 (T-40th)
1970-79: 35 (T-46th)
1980-89: 105 (12th) Early Big East and Mullin years
1990-99: 45 (43rd)
2000-present: -14 (T-230th)

Rank by the decade Villanova 16th all time
1962-69: 38 (30th)
1970-79: 65 (T-16th)
1980-89: 100 (14th)
1990-99: 35 (T-61st)
2000-present: 73 (36th)

right behind us in the Eighties but blew us away since 2000. Those dismal Jarvis/Roberts years will forever bring down St. John's

 

[Redfaced]

Nova next two games:

@ PITT
VS GTOWN

VERY big chance Nova is looking at 9-9 in conference play and 18-13 on season. If we beat the Friars we are in very good shape

I still think 'Nova is getting in, regardless what we do. We're not fighting 'Nova for a spot. West Virginia and UConn recently got in with similar records.

Your probably right MJ but now there is a chance NOVA could lose out and make it harder for them to get in, which makes it easier for us to get in.

You must be talking about getting into the NIT as at this point we would prob have to win the remainder of our three games to get in the big tourney. PC will be tough on the road as will ND and Marquette just beat the Cuse, so where are the wins comming from?

Beat Providence and hopefully win at home against Marquette. Then take 2 in the BET. It's certainly a long road but after seeing this Seton Hall ending anything is possible I guess

Don't think we will be favored in any of the last three games. The other issue is that all three of the teams we are about to play are playing well now and we, and our star players, have not been as of late. It's going to take a great game by DLo just to be competitive in each of these games. Let's hope for Jamal's return ASAP

 

[beast of the east]

Nova next two games:

@ PITT
VS GTOWN

VERY big chance Nova is looking at 9-9 in conference play and 18-13 on season. If we beat the Friars we are in very good shape

I still think 'Nova is getting in, regardless what we do. We're not fighting 'Nova for a spot. West Virginia and UConn recently got in with similar records.

Your probably right MJ but now there is a chance NOVA could lose out and make it harder for them to get in, which makes it easier for us to get in.

You must be talking about getting into the NIT as at this point we would prob have to win the remainder of our three games to get in the big tourney. PC will be tough on the road as will ND and Marquette just beat the Cuse, so where are the wins comming from?

Beat Providence and hopefully win at home against Marquette. Then take 2 in the BET. It's certainly a long road but after seeing this Seton Hall ending anything is possible I guess

Don't think we will be favored in any of the last three games. The other issue is that all three of the teams we are about to play are playing well now and we, and our star players, have not been as of late. It's going to take a great game by DLo just to be competitive in each of these games. Let's hope for Jamal's return ASAP

I would go further than that. I would say the odds that we win all three are about 50 to 1, two out of three 20-1, one out of three 5-1 and that's only because we play providence.

 

[redmen2014champs]

Nova next two games:

@ PITT
VS GTOWN

VERY big chance Nova is looking at 9-9 in conference play and 18-13 on season. If we beat the Friars we are in very good shape

I still think 'Nova is getting in, regardless what we do. We're not fighting 'Nova for a spot. West Virginia and UConn recently got in with similar records.

Your probably right MJ but now there is a chance NOVA could lose out and make it harder for them to get in, which makes it easier for us to get in.

You must be talking about getting into the NIT as at this point we would prob have to win the remainder of our three games to get in the big tourney. PC will be tough on the road as will ND and Marquette just beat the Cuse, so where are the wins comming from?

Beat Providence and hopefully win at home against Marquette. Then take 2 in the BET. It's certainly a long road but after seeing this Seton Hall ending anything is possible I guess

Don't think we will be favored in any of the last three games. The other issue is that all three of the teams we are about to play are playing well now and we, and our star players, have not been as of late. It's going to take a great game by DLo just to be competitive in each of these games. Let's hope for Jamal's return ASAP

I would go further than that. I would say the odds that we win all three are about 50 to 1, two out of three 20-1, one out of three 5-1 and that's only because we play providence.

Can I have action on each of those please? I would love for you to be my book setting odds like that, lol. The only one that isn't so mathematically out of whack is the winning all three which shouldn't be much less than 50-1.

 

[beast of the east]

Nova next two games:

@ PITT
VS GTOWN

VERY big chance Nova is looking at 9-9 in conference play and 18-13 on season. If we beat the Friars we are in very good shape

I still think 'Nova is getting in, regardless what we do. We're not fighting 'Nova for a spot. West Virginia and UConn recently got in with similar records.

Your probably right MJ but now there is a chance NOVA could lose out and make it harder for them to get in, which makes it easier for us to get in.

You must be talking about getting into the NIT as at this point we would prob have to win the remainder of our three games to get in the big tourney. PC will be tough on the road as will ND and Marquette just beat the Cuse, so where are the wins comming from?

Beat Providence and hopefully win at home against Marquette. Then take 2 in the BET. It's certainly a long road but after seeing this Seton Hall ending anything is possible I guess

Don't think we will be favored in any of the last three games. The other issue is that all three of the teams we are about to play are playing well now and we, and our star players, have not been as of late. It's going to take a great game by DLo just to be competitive in each of these games. Let's hope for Jamal's return ASAP

I would go further than that. I would say the odds that we win all three are about 50 to 1, two out of three 20-1, one out of three 5-1 and that's only because we play providence.

Can I have action on each of those please? I would love for you to be my book setting odds like that, lol. The only one that isn't so mathematically out of whack is the winning all three which shouldn't be much less than 50-1.

The way PRovidence has been playing especially at home, playing ND on the road, and drawing Marquette at the Garden, what makes you think we are likely to win any of these games?

 

[redmen2014champs]

On a personal, highly biased basis I believe they will win at least 1 game and I believe they have a decent shot at winning 2. In my dreams I have them winning all 3. However, I was addressing your odds on a purely mathematical basis depending on Vegas odds. Since I know I won't be able to get much more than 2-1 odds on them to beat either Marquette or Providence, 5-1 odds on them to win either of those games or even beat ND is a steal. I'm not saying they will necessarily win any of those games I am just saying that the odds you threw out were not accurate.
As far as thinking that they are likely to win any of these games, have you watched Minnesota beat Indiana, Tennessee beat Florida, Michigan lose to Penn St. for goodness sake just in the last two days. This is just a small microcosm of what has happened all year and every year in college basketball. As far as game by game, Providence and St. John's have a somewhat equal talent level, if D'Lo and Sampson play like they are capable of and not how they played against Pitt they certainly have a decent chance. They should play much better since the Providence defense is much weaker than Pitt's defense. Against Notre Dame, there is no reason I shouldn't believe they can win that game. They dominated them the first time and although ND is now at home and have been playing better of late that certainly doesn't guarantee them a win. In the Marquette game, they are at home in their final game of the season and Marquette is a different team on the road. I personally believe Marquette is a much better team but SJU certainly has a decent chance at home with Marquette looking ahead to the Big East tourney. None of these teams have much bigger bodies and much better talent like Louisville, Syracuse and Georgetown did.

 

[beast of the east]

On a personal, highly biased basis I believe they will win at least 1 game and I believe they have a decent shot at winning 2. In my dreams I have them winning all 3. However, I was addressing your odds on a purely mathematical basis depending on Vegas odds. Since I know I won't be able to get much more than 2-1 odds on them to beat either Marquette or Providence, 5-1 odds on them to win either of those games or even beat ND is a steal. I'm not saying they will necessarily win any of those games I am just saying that the odds you threw out were not accurate.
As far as thinking that they are likely to win any of these games, have you watched Minnesota beat Indiana, Tennessee beat Florida, Michigan lose to Penn St. for goodness sake just in the last two days. This is just a small microcosm of what has happened all year and every year in college basketball. As far as game by game, Providence and St. John's have a somewhat equal talent level, if D'Lo and Sampson play like they are capable of and not how they played against Pitt they certainly have a decent chance. They should play much better since the Providence defense is much weaker than Pitt's defense. Against Notre Dame, there is no reason I shouldn't believe they can win that game. They dominated them the first time and although ND is now at home and have been playing better of late that certainly doesn't guarantee them a win. In the Marquette game, they are at home in their final game of the season and Marquette is a different team on the road. I personally believe Marquette is a much better team but SJU certainly has a decent chance at home with Marquette looking ahead to the Big East tourney. None of these teams have much bigger bodies and much better talent like Louisville, Syracuse and Georgetown did.

I'm not an oddsmaker, so you are probably right, but you understand my point. They will be underdogs in all three games, and while they could suddenly awaken and pull out one of those gems (that incidentally I posted we would do after the rocky Big East start we had) with Branch out, and both Greene and Harrison having poor seasons, it doesn't seem too likely. Anyways, I admire your optimism and will be rooting as hard as you will for a win or two.