...Can we make the Tournament?

[paultzman]

This win is huge to have on our resume.

Right now, we are on the cusp of the tourney.  If we win Saturday, we will comfortabley be in the field of 64.

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[lawmanfan]

I think that the 3 games that you can have some confidence in predicting are at Providence (L), at Nova (L), and home for DePaul (W).

The rest of the games are a coin flip to me.  I'd figure the team finishes with around 15 or 16 wins and a game or so under .500 in the league.  At that point we'd probably need the league to be a 6 bid league OR to make some noise in the BET

 

[MakingPlays]

TLDR: if we play anywhere near our current level for the remainder of the season, we will absolutely make the Tournament. That is much easier said than done, though. For now I’m just glad we’re playing meaningful basketball in February. Big congrats again to the team. This has been one of the most shocking turnarounds I have seen, and unlike the 2017-18 turnaround (which STARTED on this day 2/3/18 against #4 Duke after going 0-11 BE), we still have time to make the Dance.

I agree will probably be in on a few brackets and on the outside in the last 4/next 4 out group in other brackets, that win turned this into a true bubble team.

One thing I have seen other posters say is Providence is a must win.  I don't think it is, it would be a nice win, and put them firmly in the field, but losing to them won't knock them off the bubble. Providence is a bubble team as well, with a NET of 86 right now, if they win on Saturday, it probably boosts them back up into the top 75 NET.  That would make that a Quadrant 1 loss since it's a road game, which won't hurt much at all, may only affect St. John's NET by a couple of points.

The only game that I see is a must win is DePaul at home.  DePaul is 167 in NET right now, losing to them at home would be considered a Q4 loss, that would drop a NET significantly and put a bad loss on the resume.  It would have been so much better if they rescheduled the UConn game rather than the DePaul game, because it looks unlikely now that the UConn home game will happen.

Moving forward, I think if they win that DePaul game (avoiding a bad loss), and go 3-3 in the other games (any combination), I think that should be enough to put them firmly in the field.  That would add them a couple more Q1/Q2 wins, with no bad losses.

 

 

[ADORAZ]

Lawmanfan- I agree with those 3 games being the most predictable. It also means @ Providence will be our second toughest remaining game. If we beat them we would be in an excellent position, but if we don't we'd still be OK. I don't see it as an absolute must win, as long as the team puts in the maximum effort I'll be good with the outcome. I expect to be underdogs by a couple points. 

 

[ADORAZ]

Silly question

Does the opponents rankings matter  where it was on date we played them, or where it ends up by season end?




End of the season. Fortunately our 2 Q1 wins should be safe. 
 

 

[SJUhoopNUT]

I don't even want to think NCAA yet. We have a lot of basketball to play. Just love the progress we have seen. 

 

[lawmanfan]

Lawmanfan- I agree with those 3 games being the most predictable. It also means @ Providence will be our second toughest remaining game. If we beat them we would be in an excellent position, but if we don't we'd still be OK. I don't see it as an absolute must win, as long as the team puts in the maximum effort I'll be good with the outcome. I expect to be underdogs by a couple points. 
 

It would be an overstatement to say I don't care if we make the NCAA Tournament this year, but to me it would be more of a step in the right direction than an end in and of itself.  In the past ~decade we've made the Tournament a couple of times with senior-heavy teams or a short-term star - after which we went straight back to the bottom of the league.

I'm not looking for another sugar high.  A big part of my enthusiasm about Coach Anderson from the beginning has been that he is a program builder - he's willing to pick up pieces and develop them and to take the time and put in the effort to build the culture and the progrm that he wants.  That is a recipe for sustainable success. 

Last year we would have been an NIT team. This year we can be an NIT team or a fringe NCAA team.  The latter is better than the former from a "relevance" standpoint, and we need to be relevant to keep building.  But the goal is to be an NCAA team again next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.

So while it would be nice to make the Tournament this year, and doing so would maybe put a little extra juice in building the program, it isn't the be-all and end-all measure of how we are doing or where we are going.

 

[Lambsbball]

Getting invited to the tournament is a big deal. I strongly dislike one and done tournament runs. I don't think that was a beneficial experience for Mullin's last team. Getting your butt kicked and sent home after the first night sucks.

I much rather see the Johnnie's make a strong NIT run. The experience of playing for a championship is valuable experience that carries forward into the next season. I think this team would do well in the NIT. 

 

[SJUFAN2]

Getting invited to the tournament is a big deal. I strongly dislike one and done tournament runs. I don't think that was a beneficial experience for Mullins last team. Getting your butt kicked and sent home after the first night sucks.

I much rather see the Johnnie's make a strong NIT run. The experience of playing for a championship is valuable experience that carries forward into the next season. I think this team would do well in the NIT. 

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with this view point.  Not that you aren't correct in your assessment of that last Mullin team getting in and getting whacked.  But recruits don't select schools based on NIT success.  
Making the NCAA this year would help add to our momentum as a program by opening eyes of other recruits.   

For me, that is all that matters here.  Making the NCAA's with a young team that over achieves is a story you can sell to top level recruits, even if they lose in the first round.  Saying we made the NIT final 4 isn't going to resonate with the guys we want to be in play for. 

  

 

[Sherman Sheridan & Grant]

I don't even want to think NCAA yet. We have a lot of basketball to play. Just love the progress we have seen. 

Yes thank you and I find I need to remind myself to enjoy the current moment and current ride - good team,  play hard, fun to  watch, W possible in evey game, buoyant atmosphere - has not been this way very often these past 2-3 decades.

 

 

[Lambsbball]

I see your point about recruiting. Getting invited to the big dance can persuade some recruits to sign with a program.

I was thinking about the experience young players get from a strong tournament run. It wouldn't be quite the same this year without the crowds.

Coaches wouldn't turn down a tournament invite for the big dance. Let's see how the Johnnie's do in the up coming games. They need at least a couple more upset wins to get into the brackets.
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[ADORAZ]

I agree with the posts about the Tournament not being a necessity this year. It would be a big bonus as I was expecting NIT pre-season and nothing several weeks ago. This team is ahead of schedule barring a complete collapse. 

That said, making the Tournament or at least the NIT would help the program in terms of momentum. The issue with Lavin and Mullin is they took far too long to make it (besides Lavin year 1), and for that reason many (including recruits) lost confidence in them. If we can make the Tournament this year that'd be super refreshing after the last couple decades. "Building a program" changes so much with early departures and transfers. Right now we have a good team and it'd be awesome if they can take advantage of that early in CMA's tenure. I'd rather not wait 4 years again to sneak into the Dance if that can be avoided. 

 

[Delaware]

I agree we may be on the bubble, but let's just beat Providence. Feels like we owe them a licking, and maybe we can shut Cooley up about his guard that he believes was shortchanged by Posh.

 

[BrooklynRed]

On this as Louie would say "Don't put the horns on us"

 

[Moose]

SJU will make the tournament

And advance to the Final Four where fans aren't allowed.

But such is the luck of St. John's 

 

[shamsman2]

SJU will make the tournament

And advance to the Final Four where fans aren't allowed.

But such is the luck of St. John's 

I would be ecstatic if that happens!!!!!!
 

 

[boo haarvey]

Getting invited to the tournament is a big deal. I strongly dislike one and done tournament runs. I don't think that was a beneficial experience for Mullin's last team. Getting your butt kicked and sent home after the first night sucks.

I much rather see the Johnnie's make a strong NIT run. The experience of playing for a championship is valuable experience that carries forward into the next season. I think this team would do well in the NIT. 

sorry, but the NIT is irrelevant.  Nobody cares about that tournament 
 

 

[boo haarvey]

I agree with the posts about the Tournament not being a necessity this year. It would be a big bonus as I was expecting NIT pre-season and nothing several weeks ago. This team is ahead of schedule barring a complete collapse. 

That said, making the Tournament or at least the NIT would help the program in terms of momentum. The issue with Lavin and Mullin is they took far too long to make it (besides Lavin year 1), and for that reason many (including recruits) lost confidence in them. If we can make the Tournament this year that'd be super refreshing after the last couple decades. "Building a program" changes so much with early departures and transfers. Right now we have a good team and it'd be awesome if they can take advantage of that early in CMA's tenure. I'd rather not wait 4 years again to sneak into the Dance if that can be avoided. 

Man, this Board suffers from Battered Fan Syndrome.  Talking ourselves out of rooting for an NCAA birth so we can make an NIT run.  Nonsense! Get in and anything can happen.  Mediocre teams have made miracle runs and great teams have gotten bounced early.  If this team gets in, there's no reason we can't make a deep run.  We proved last night we can beat virtually any team on any given night.
 

 

[ADORAZ]

If given the option of winning the NIT or being a one and done in the Tournament, I'd take the Tournament. That Tournament team is still ahead of the NIT winner, and St. John's has plenty of NIT titles anyways.

Don't get me wrong, it's very close and I'd be happy with either scenario, but the NIT is irrelevant. 

 

[boo haarvey]

SJU will make the tournament

And advance to the Final Four where fans aren't allowed.

But such is the luck of St. John's 

lol, I was thinking the same!  Imagine having an incredible run in a year where none of us can see a live game