Anderson - is he really the guy ?

[beast of the east]

It may be difficult to see because I believe that it is difficult to be objectively critical when we lose by 2 points.  When we win by two points the same flaws are present,  but they aren't magnified under the frustration of losing.

To me, with so many close games this season, actually almost all of them, we are exceedingly close to being a winning team. It is partially due to injury and illness, partially to poor play in key moments, and partially a talent gap of 1 or 2 players at most.

Historically, having sat through games in person where we got smoked, like the BET game in Mullin's last season or the sweater game vs. Georgetown, games this season haven't been like that.   There have been plenty of opportunities to cheer our guys on.

Now, the best hope is to finish strong, and perhaps an NIT bid.   If that's not possible, it's not the end of life as we know it.    It's been a frustrating season, but to me, not unenjoyable, especially since it's now clear we have a president who places a priority on winning in athletics.

 

[we are sju]

In NY post Anderson said doesn’t understand why they struggle with layups.
Only really have one Athletic player -Mathis
Posh good athlete but small. Champagnie and Wheeler are just average athletes and not sure Wusu can touch backboard 

 

[lawmanfan]

Some reference points re:  coaches during their first 3 years in the Big East who have lasted in the league (thus excluding the bunch of new coaches and Ewing who will soon be a former coach):

Jay Wright
19-13, 7-9, NIT
15-16, 8-8-, NIT
18-17, 6-10, NIT

Ed Cooley
15-17, 4-14 no post-season
19-15, 9-9, NIT
23-12, 10-8, NCAA

Kevin Willard
13-17, 7-11, no post-season
21-13, 8-10, NIT
15-18, 3-15, no post-season

Greg McDermott
27-8, 14-4, NCAA
14-19, 4-14, no post-season
20-15, 9-9, NIT

Mike Anderson
17-15, 5-13 (post-season cancelled, COVID)
16-11, 10-9 (declined NIT, COVID)
13-11, 5-8

Now, there are lies, damn lies and statistics, so there are a bunch of ways you can look at the information. 

One way is "the non-Anderson coaches all had to compete in the BIG Big East, which was a much tougher conference than the current one, so whatever success they had in their first 3 years was more meaningful than Anderson's."

Another way is "none of the other coaches had to deal with COVID for their first three years."

A third way is "it takes time to build a consistently good Big East program and if you have a record a bit over .500 overall and around .400 in conference in your first 3 seasons, you're sort of par for the course and let's see where you go from there."

I'm sure there are more ways to look at it, and the data is not posted specifically as a defense of Anderson, it's just to bring a little broader and more fact-based perspective to the discussion than "he lost two games in a row, he sucks, fire him." 

There are definitely meritorious arguments that could be made in either direction about conclusions that could reasonably be drawn from the production to date, YMMV.

 

[Knight]

It may be difficult to see because I believe that it is difficult to be objectively critical when we lose by 2 points.  When we win by two points the same flaws are present,  but they aren't magnified under the frustration of losing.

To me, with so many close games this season, actually almost all of them, we are exceedingly close to being a winning team. It is partially due to injury and illness, partially to poor play in key moments, and partially a talent gap of 1 or 2 players at most.

Historically, having sat through games in person where we got smoked, like the BET game in Mullin's last season or the sweater game vs. Georgetown, games this season haven't been like that.   There have been plenty of opportunities to cheer our guys on.

Now, the best hope is to finish strong, and perhaps an NIT bid.   If that's not possible, it's not the end of life as we know it.    It's been a frustrating season, but to me, not unenjoyable, especially since it's now clear we have a president who places a priority on winning in athletics.

Final score was 63-60. We lost by 3 points. Not sure if you were referring to Sunday’s game or not.

 

[Notanalum]

If you told me a year ago we’d have wheeler playing as well as he has, a legit big in Soriano improving and playing tough vs Watson and Sanogo etc and Wusu’s stats up across the board  I’d say were no worse than 3rd. It’s amazing how frustrating this season was. I can only imagine what Coach, Van, TJ, Shoes and co must say to one another when the doors are closed. 
 

 

[Notanalum]

And I know it’s a long season. Guys like Posh will always be banged up. But w all the injuries we’ve had, losing Pinzon hurt us as much as anyone 

 

[room112]

Some reference points re:  coaches during their first 3 years in the Big East who have lasted in the league (thus excluding the bunch of new coaches and Ewing who will soon be a former coach):

Jay Wright
19-13, 7-9, NIT
15-16, 8-8-, NIT
18-17, 6-10, NIT

Ed Cooley
15-17, 4-14 no post-season
19-15, 9-9, NIT
23-12, 10-8, NCAA

Kevin Willard
13-17, 7-11, no post-season
21-13, 8-10, NIT
15-18, 3-15, no post-season

Greg McDermott
27-8, 14-4, NCAA
14-19, 4-14, no post-season
20-15, 9-9, NIT

Mike Anderson
17-15, 5-13 (post-season cancelled, COVID)
16-11, 10-9 (declined NIT, COVID)
13-11, 5-8

Now, there are lies, damn lies and statistics, so there are a bunch of ways you can look at the information. 

One way is "the non-Anderson coaches all had to compete in the BIG Big East, which was a much tougher conference than the current one, so whatever success they had in their first 3 years was more meaningful than Anderson's."

Another way is "none of the other coaches had to deal with COVID for their first three years."

A third way is "it takes time to build a consistently good Big East program and if you have a record a bit over .500 overall and around .400 in conference in your first 3 seasons, you're sort of par for the course and let's see where you go from there."

I'm sure there are more ways to look at it, and the data is not posted specifically as a defense of Anderson, it's just to bring a little broader and more fact-based perspective to the discussion than "he lost two games in a row, he sucks, fire him." 

There are definitely meritorious arguments that could be made in either direction about conclusions that could reasonably be drawn from the production to date, YMMV.

Great analysis, always enjoy reading your posts Lawman. I will add one piece. I believe many here would feel much more comfortable if our trajectory appeared to be on the upswing for the future. However, we would likely all agree that recruiting hasn't been where it needs to be (I know we got Storr). There is so much that can change with regard to the makeup of the roster over an off season. But we are currently looking at year 4 as another potential tough season, with not much hope on the horizon.

 

[beast of the east]

Think for a second how the outcomes of the UCONN and Villanova 4 games may have been different if we had home crowds like Villanova (especially) and UCONN, and there home games were sparsely attended and our fans basically negated their home court advantage?

Do we win 2 of those game, 3?  maybe all 4?    It's a reasonable question considering the final score of all 4 games.

 

[redmen4life]

Some reference points re:  coaches during their first 3 years in the Big East who have lasted in the league (thus excluding the bunch of new coaches and Ewing who will soon be a former coach):

Jay Wright
19-13, 7-9, NIT
15-16, 8-8-, NIT
18-17, 6-10, NIT

Ed Cooley
15-17, 4-14 no post-season
19-15, 9-9, NIT
23-12, 10-8, NCAA

Kevin Willard
13-17, 7-11, no post-season
21-13, 8-10, NIT
15-18, 3-15, no post-season

Greg McDermott
27-8, 14-4, NCAA
14-19, 4-14, no post-season
20-15, 9-9, NIT

Mike Anderson
17-15, 5-13 (post-season cancelled, COVID)
16-11, 10-9 (declined NIT, COVID)
13-11, 5-8

Now, there are lies, damn lies and statistics, so there are a bunch of ways you can look at the information. 

One way is "the non-Anderson coaches all had to compete in the BIG Big East, which was a much tougher conference than the current one, so whatever success they had in their first 3 years was more meaningful than Anderson's."

Another way is "none of the other coaches had to deal with COVID for their first three years."

A third way is "it takes time to build a consistently good Big East program and if you have a record a bit over .500 overall and around .400 in conference in your first 3 seasons, you're sort of par for the course and let's see where you go from there."

I'm sure there are more ways to look at it, and the data is not posted specifically as a defense of Anderson, it's just to bring a little broader and more fact-based perspective to the discussion than "he lost two games in a row, he sucks, fire him." 

There are definitely meritorious arguments that could be made in either direction about conclusions that could reasonably be drawn from the production to date, YMMV.

this is great.  i wouldn't even go out of the sju universe to compare cma.  let's just look at how lavin and CM did their 1st three years:

Lav: 
21 -12 (12-6) - NCAA
13-19 (6 -12)
17-16 (8-10)

Mullin
8-24 (1-17)
14-19 (7-11)
16-17 (4-14)

Mike Anderson
17-15, 5-13 (post-season cancelled, COVID)
16-11, 10-9 (declined NIT, COVID)
13-11, 5-8

CMA is on par with our previous coaches.

the question then becomes, what will it take to get us over the hump?

facilities? nothing significant  likely to happen
fan support? can't expect more than what we get now

i am of the mindset that CMA has brought a level of stability we haven't had in a long time.  and that counts for a quite a bit.

 

 

[monte]

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Look at Depaul, Butler and even Georgetown. They all lost a handful of games by a few points. Plus we won a some games by just a few points, including games against cupcakes. You are what your record says you are, and we're right around where we belong in the Big East standings based on our talent level and how we've played. It is what it is. Let's pray for a miracle run in the Big East, and look to next season. 

 

[IDRAFT]

As for next season. The only players we can count on to be on the team are Storr and King. I don't know how anyone can watch an SJU team right now and get any enjoyment out of looking into the future. There is no reason to think any of the existing players will return. If things are ever going to turn around SJU needs to either attract five-star freshman (good luck), the cream of the transfer crop (good luck) or actually retain and grow a strong core of their own roster.

Of those three things I would think the easiest would be the third option but based on last year I have no evidence CMA is the guy who can do that. So for the rest of the year I will watch this team and hope for some wins but I don't waste any time thinking about next years roster. I say it over and over so I know I'm kind of spamming.

Senior day yesterday. The seniors from all the other winter programs were honored. Couldn't do basketball as there aren't any. They won't be able to do it again next year.

Whether CMA is the guy starts for me the day the season ends. If virtually the entire team transfers out again I can't see how he is ever going to succeed. He keeps six or seven guys this time (I get it there will be some transfers) maybe he can work out. The revolving door at SJU has to stop.
 

 

[mm52]

 Whether CMA is the guy starts for me the day the season ends. If virtually the entire team transfers out again I can't see how he is ever going to succeed. He keeps six or seven guys this time (I get it there will be some transfers) maybe he can work out. The revolving door at SJU has to stop.
 

Pretty fair point.  But SJU is not unique in having a revolving door last year.  But I do agree that an exodus of players on whom we need to come back would put us back.

 

[lawmanfan]

 

Great analysis, always enjoy reading your posts Lawman. I will add one piece. I believe many here would feel much more comfortable if our trajectory appeared to be on the upswing for the future. However, we would likely all agree that recruiting hasn't been where it needs to be (I know we got Storr). There is so much that can change with regard to the makeup of the roster over an off season. But we are currently looking at year 4 as another potential tough season, with not much hope on the horizon.
 

Thanks.  While I don't disagree at all that the team needs a couple more pieces (at a minimum Storr plus an impact transfer), I do think that our fan base underestimates the value of continuity and player development.  It's understandable since we haven't had any of either in 20 years.

If you look at Providence (which has been more or less my benchmark for where I think Anderson can get SJU to), last year they were not good.  They lose David Duke, return everyone else, and now look at this year.  Developing your players and familiarity with the system and each other is a real thing.

So to me this is not just about adding a couple of the missing pieces, it's about returning 6-7 of the existing ones since I think that will count for more than people realize.  I guess we'll see.

 

[fordham96]

For the last time you don't get to make the continuity argument only when it conveniently suits your preferred coach.

Lavin got 5 years overhauled the roster, got Cancer and went to 2 NCAA's and 2 NIT's.  Including his last year.  I don't remember you ever arguing we needed to keep continuity.  Ever.

How about Mullin?  Did you argue SJU should keep him for continuity reasons?  Don't remember it?

Convenient how you make that argument NOW.

The Willard and Cooley hires are not applicable because one of the reasons you and others touted the Anderson hire was SPECIFICALLY his success at Arkansas and Missouri.  In other words two high majors and not having a losing season. Are you saying he should be held to the same standard as two coaches from the MAAC who had never gone to the NCAA's prior to their current stops?  If that is the case SJU should have hired a MAAC coach or HM assistant.  What difference would it make?

Lastly Providence is an anomaly with retention.  The transfer portal and the new rules about immediate eligibility changes the equation.

Case in point Marquette and Smart.  First off Smart isn't getting 6 years to make the NCAA's at Marquette like Willard did at SHU. That was NEVER going to happen.  Furthermore Marquette lost 3 big starters off of last year's team-Garcia transferred to UNC, DJ Carton went pro and Theo John transferred to Duke.  He had to replace 9 players in a few months including 3 starters.  How was he able to do all that in less than 5 months let alone in 5 years?  

And keep in mind SJU's transfers were hardly big time, not one transferred to a high major.  Marquette lost 3 starters and 2 of them went to the two biggest programs in the ACC.  And they are having a better year.


 

 

[Johnny Rapper]

Here's the bottom line imho. CMA's first year was at least a push. Last year he overachieved unless you are of the view that being voted BE coach of the year by his peers is meaningless which would be fairly laughable. This year, barring a miraculous finish, will be a clear disappointment. In no way, shape or form does that justify considering changing coaches at this time, especially in a program with our recent lack of stability.     

What I don't understand is how fans of the program can think it is constructive to constantly be feeding threads like this and especially threads questioning why recruits would want to come to SJU. We all agree we need more talent and let's at least give coach a chance to see if he can do that.  Posh & Wusu were actually pretty good recruits, last year so/so based on results to date. Next year is key but staff deserves our support unless and until it is clear it is not warranted imho. 

Clearly yourself and others who didn’t read my initial post including the moderator who moved it to this thread didn’t read that this post was not meant for Anderson but for any coach who were to take the job in general. I specifically made mention of that. 

 

[Jack Williams]

I haven’t completely given up on Anderson, but one thing is for damn sure. Us not being able to grab Steve Pikiell is the most brutal miss our program has endured. Just an absolute shame. 

i know the timing was never right cause we were in the middle of the mullin era or something… but goddamn it hurts. Fucking Rutgers gets him and turns their program around 

but then again, it even took him a few years to get his feet under him at Rutgers. So maybe giving up on Mike A is jumping the gun. I don’t know anymore. I’m tired of this shit 

 

[monte]

 

Great analysis, always enjoy reading your posts Lawman. I will add one piece. I believe many here would feel much more comfortable if our trajectory appeared to be on the upswing for the future. However, we would likely all agree that recruiting hasn't been where it needs to be (I know we got Storr). There is so much that can change with regard to the makeup of the roster over an off season. But we are currently looking at year 4 as another potential tough season, with not much hope on the horizon.

 

Thanks.  While I don't disagree at all that the team needs a couple more pieces (at a minimum Storr plus an impact transfer), I do think that our fan base underestimates the value of continuity and player development.  It's understandable since we haven't had any of either in 20 years.

If you look at Providence (which has been more or less my benchmark for where I think Anderson can get SJU to), last year they were not good.  They lose David Duke, return everyone else, and now look at this year.  Developing your players and familiarity with the system and each other is a real thing.

So to me this is not just about adding a couple of the missing pieces, it's about returning 6-7 of the existing ones since I think that will count for more than people realize.  I guess we'll see.

If we are going to give CMA credit for how he got Mullin's kids(IE  Earl, GWill,) to improve, don't we give Lavin credit for what he did with Norm's kids? And didn't we see growth from D'Lo, Greene and mostly Sir Dom? Just to name a few. And you know I wasn't the biggest Lavin fan in the world. And those kids all stayed 4 years. So to say that there has been no continuity or player development over the last 21 years in not accurate LMF. Not enough of it, but there has been some. Gotta give Lav credit where credit is due. 

 

[lawmanfan]

My dear friend F:

1.  No program other than SJU has hired Lavin in the last 20 years because nobody thinks the King of Continuity (cough) can coach at all and it was pretty clear at the end that he didn't want to, either.

2.  No program other than SJU has hired Mullin to coach, and it seems unlikely that any ever will again.

3.  There is fundamental difference between the analysis you bring to a proven quantity versus folks like Lav and Mullin who were essentially flyers at "maybe this will work." 

      3.a.: The sum total of my opinion on Anderson is that he is a professional coach who runs a clean program and should on balance be an improvement over Mullin, Lavin, Roberts, and He Who Shall Not Be Named - nowhere have I said that he is the next Jay Wright or even the next Greg McDermott.  He is what he is and that is a step in the right direction for the program.

4.  This may be a news flash to some, but SJU is not Marquette.  SJU isn't even Seton Hall or Providence.  It is probably the worst job at the school with the fewest resources, the worst facilities, the most restrictions on recruiting activities that are commonplace elsewhere (cough, Smart, cough), and the most unreasonable self-image of all of the schools in the Big East.  This is all about the expectations game - if you think that SJU is going to bring in some coach who is going to magically go from worst-to-first and bring in 5 star recruits, then you are just setting yourself up for disappointment.  It is not going to happen in the near or intermediate term and it may never happen.

     4.a.  Smart is doing a good job thus far, but I think it's a bit premature to be building statues of him.  Anderson did a pretty good job last year and now folks want his head.  One day a peacock, the next day a feather duster as Looie said.

You and others may disagree, but IMHO if your program is in the league basement by most metrics and you can hire a coach that has demonstrated the ability to get you a couple of stories above ground level, then you give that coach a chance to do that job even if you don't think that he is likely to get you to the penthouse.  Once you're solidly above ground you can start worrying about moving on up like the Jeffersons.

Or, you can keep hiring and firing coaches quadrenially trying to catch lightening in a bottle, because THAT plan has worked SO well!

Though TBH both your opinion and mine are irrelevant - the fact is that Coach Anderson is going to be here for at least two more years, and probably longer, so he will have a full and fair opportunity to prove one of us right and the other wrong, whether you like it or not.  Hopefully he will prove you wrong - I am sure that you would much rather be wrong and have the program succeed than be right and have it fail, no?

 

[redmannorth]

Here's the bottom line imho. CMA's first year was at least a push. Last year he overachieved unless you are of the view that being voted BE coach of the year by his peers is meaningless which would be fairly laughable. This year, barring a miraculous finish, will be a clear disappointment. In no way, shape or form does that justify considering changing coaches at this time, especially in a program with our recent lack of stability.     

What I don't understand is how fans of the program can think it is constructive to constantly be feeding threads like this and especially threads questioning why recruits would want to come to SJU. We all agree we need more talent and let's at least give coach a chance to see if he can do that.  Posh & Wusu were actually pretty good recruits, last year so/so based on results to date. Next year is key but staff deserves our support unless and until it is clear it is not warranted imho. 

Clearly yourself and others who didn’t read my initial post including the moderator who moved it to this thread didn’t read that this post was not meant for Anderson but for any coach who were to take the job in general. I specifically made mention of that. 

Jermaine I read your initial post and moved it. 
We don't need numerous threads to say the same thing. 
And though your topic may have been different your question would have been answered in this thread. Please remember the moderators are all very busy people doing a volunteer task and spend a great deal of time daily reading through the posts to ensure site rules are not violated. Especially on game days. All we ask is that posters don't make the task more difficult than it already is. 
Thank you. 

 

[paultzman]

 

Great analysis, always enjoy reading your posts Lawman. I will add one piece. I believe many here would feel much more comfortable if our trajectory appeared to be on the upswing for the future. However, we would likely all agree that recruiting hasn't been where it needs to be (I know we got Storr). There is so much that can change with regard to the makeup of the roster over an off season. But we are currently looking at year 4 as another potential tough season, with not much hope on the horizon.

 

Thanks.  While I don't disagree at all that the team needs a couple more pieces (at a minimum Storr plus an impact transfer), I do think that our fan base underestimates the value of continuity and player development.  It's understandable since we haven't had any of either in 20 years.

If you look at Providence (which has been more or less my benchmark for where I think Anderson can get SJU to), last year they were not good.  They lose David Duke, return everyone else, and now look at this year.  Developing your players and familiarity with the system and each other is a real thing.

So to me this is not just about adding a couple of the missing pieces, it's about returning 6-7 of the existing ones since I think that will count for more than people realize.  I guess we'll see.

I don’t envy coaches preparing to put a solid roster together in this “free agency” college hoops environment. I trust staff will obviously want Posh, Wusu, Pinzon, Stanley, Traore and Wheeler back for sure. Bigs are hard to come by so I guess you include Soriano and Nyiwe on that wish list. That said, you know most teams lose someone of consequence and in addition to adding quality recruits like Storr, you really have to skillfully play the transfer game. Wheeler was fine catch in that regard this year.

Your continuity point re PC is a good one and also note over past two year cycle they added quality transfers in Croswell, Minaya, Bynum, Durham and Horchler. So at risk of stating obvious, SJU must keep core valuable kids, raise the recruiting bar despite our limitations and play the transfer game more adroitly.  On latter, part one is gauging talent to fit needs and part two is the tricky one, trying to figure out team culture compatibility. All this is quite a challenge.

On positive note, with Posh, Pinzon, Wusu, Storr, King it appears to be a solid group of guards/wings to roll out balls with next season. Hopefully that happens and/or we add someone.