Your Hopes/Expectations for 2020-21

Mike Zaun wrote: It's interesting to note how much high octane offense correlates with projected standings. The top tier Big East teams have great offenses and can score at a high clip. One of my concerns under the CMA 40 minutes of hell system was, will we have enough offense? It seems most of the offense in that system comes from fast break points off turnovers. So if we are not forcing tons of turnovers every game it will be tough to score. Let's hope Cole, Posh, Dunn, Champ, etc. can shoulder the weight scoring. Next year I expect Posh to help slash with Dunn since Dunn was really the only one doing it last year.

Agree with much of what you're saying Mike, except I believe Greg Williams has ability to turn into a slashing threat as well as hitting the open three and will do so this year now that he is fully healthy.
 
I think that our offense is only held back by the lack of shooters/scorers. The offensive system is solid and we create shots. We just don’t have enough natural scorers and hopefully that gets corrected over time by recruiting.
 
Projections for players 2021 from same source as the chart above:

Dunn: 15.7 Pts 4 Reb
Champ: 13.8 Pts 7.2 Reb
Williams: 10.1 Pts 3.6 Reb
Cole: 11.7 Pts 4.4 Reb
Roberts: 6.3 Pts 7.4 Reb

Earlington: 7.9 Pts 5.5 Reb
Moore: 3.9 Pts 2.8 Reb
Caraher: 2.9 Pts 1.8 Reb
Toro: 1.8 Pts 3 Reb
Alexander: 0.8 Pts 0 Reb

[URL]https://www.barttorvik.com/rosters21.php?team[/URL]=St.+John%27s&year=2021

Also scroll down on that page and check out the chart. It shows the Y axis as "Barthag". Barthag goes from 0 to 1 and the closer to 1 you get, the better the chance of beating an average D1 team. So the higher the Barthag (closest to 1), the better you are. As you can see, we are a very cyclical team. 2011 was our best year recently with a Barthag=0.88 and our low point is 2016 Barthag= 0.37. Next season is projected Barthag= 0.83.
 
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[quote="Mike Zaun" post=392320]Projections for players 2021 from same source as the chart above:

Dunn: 15.7 Pts 4 Reb
Champ: 13.8 Pts 7.2 Reb
Williams: 10.1 Pts 3.6 Reb
Cole: 11.7 Pts 4.4 Reb
Roberts: 6.3 Pts 7.4 Reb

Earlington: 7.9 Pts 5.5 Reb
Moore: 3.9 Pts 2.8 Reb
Caraher: 2.9 Pts 1.8 Reb
Toro: 1.8 Pts 3 Reb
Alexander: 0.8 Pts 0 Reb

[URL]https://www.barttorvik.com/rosters21.php?team[/URL]=St.+John%27s&year=2021[/quote]

I think Dunn ~2pts too high, Williams ~2pts too low. I think Cole might score 13+ / G. And think Roberts way too high given his injury and current offensive skill set. I could see Earlington better and Moore much better than this forecast, as well as Toro and Posh, and maybe DC.
But we shall see.
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=392278][attachment=1504]85981B00-078C-45C8-839B-83B635D638EB.jpeg[/attachment]

Interesting[/quote]

Good stuff. That'd put us right on the bubble with 5-7 teams getting in. I'd definitely sign up for that.
 
[quote="Ray Morgan" post=392270]With all that has been going on in the world since March, this past season seems like it ended a long time ago. Interesting to see how CMA weaves in the 5 newcomers. Five that each play a different position. That really helps. Last season. CMA made a very new team playing a very new system really mesh. Both coach, staff and team deserve a lot of praise.

Starting 5 of Dunn, Williams Cole, Penny and, if healthy, Roberts will be fun to watch. A healthy Williams can be a serious threat. I have no idea what Posh and Wusu will bring overall, but I know they will play hard and hustle. I don't expect a ton of 3s from either. Toro should be a welcome addition. A big banger has been missing for years. Moore I have no clue. Some real good coaches around the league. They will be better prepared to deal with CMA's style. I expect Cole to replace Figgy with little to no drop-off, Williams to have a breakout season, and Earl continuing to play hard and play well.

A couple under 500 in the Big East, with some signature wins and dancing in the post-season.[/quote]

Good, fair analysis
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=392320]Projections for players 2021 from same source as the chart above:

Dunn: 15.7 Pts 4 Reb
Champ: 13.8 Pts 7.2 Reb
Williams: 10.1 Pts 3.6 Reb
Cole: 11.7 Pts 4.4 Reb
Roberts: 6.3 Pts 7.4 Reb

Earlington: 7.9 Pts 5.5 Reb
Moore: 3.9 Pts 2.8 Reb
Caraher: 2.9 Pts 1.8 Reb
Toro: 1.8 Pts 3 Reb
Alexander: 0.8 Pts 0 Reb

[URL]https://www.barttorvik.com/rosters21.php?team[/URL]=St.+John%27s&year=2021

Also scroll down on that page and check out the chart. It shows the Y axis as "Barthag". Barthag goes from 0 to 1 and the closer to 1 you get, the better the chance of beating an average D1 team. So the higher the Barthag (closest to 1), the better you are. As you can see, we are a very cyclical team. 2011 was our best year recently with a Barthag=0.88 and our low point is 2016 Barthag= 0.37. Next season is projected Barthag= 0.83.[/quote]

The Duke will score 7 points a game in his sleep. He will score around 15 a game and lead the team in scoring.
 
[quote="L J S A" post=392341]Does anyone here actually believe Posh is going to average 0.8 ppg?[/quote]

Not me. I think he'll get significant minutes from the jump and by the end of the season it will be obvious that he's our starting PG until he leaves. I think he's underrated (maybe even on this board?) Posh Alexander is the perfect example of a recruit where the stars/rankings don't have anything to do with his ability. I'm a firm believer he's better than a hundred guys ranked ahead of him. He's a better penetrator than Dunn (or at least Dunn as a freshman), a very good perimeter defender and the best distributer we've had in a long time. People forget how highly ranked he was before his injury and how devastating the type of injury he suffered was.

That's just my opinion, I've learned not to take anything for granted but I would not bet against him.
 
I'm a bit concerned with Posh's height, however Dunn isn't tall either and got it done last yr pretty well. Ponds wasn't tall either and did well. Lovett, etc. As long as he can penetrate regularly I think he will be a solid finisher once he adjusts to this level. Crafty kid.
 
[quote="L J S A" post=392341]Does anyone here actually believe Posh is going to average 0.8 ppg?[/quote]

I have a hard time imagining that Posh is only good for 1 bucket and 1 assist every other game at 0.8 and 0.5. I would hope for 4 pts and 2 assists at a minimum even if he gets most of them pre-BE season.... if they even play.
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=392348]I'm a bit concerned with Posh's height.[/quote]

I am if I'm an old-school NBA GM. I think for college he'll be fine.
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=392348]I'm a bit concerned with Posh's height, however Dunn isn't tall either and got it done last yr pretty well. Ponds wasn't tall either and did well. Lovett, etc. As long as he can penetrate regularly I think he will be a solid finisher once he adjusts to this level. Crafty kid.[/quote]

Posh and mcgriff will be the mighty mites of thr big east.
 
[quote="Mike Zaun" post=392348]I'm a bit concerned with Posh's height, however Dunn isn't tall either and got it done last yr pretty well. Ponds wasn't tall either and did well. Lovett, etc. As long as he can penetrate regularly I think he will be a solid finisher once he adjusts to this level. Crafty kid.[/quote]

Now this is some absurd ish. Posh is a killer. Scored 60 points in one game this season with about 9 treys. Kid is also a fantastic athlete. Tall means little for a PG and I’m betting on this kid because his attitude is like D’lo...
 
[quote="Duke of Earlington" post=392367][quote="Mike Zaun" post=392348]I'm a bit concerned with Posh's height, however Dunn isn't tall either and got it done last yr pretty well. Ponds wasn't tall either and did well. Lovett, etc. As long as he can penetrate regularly I think he will be a solid finisher once he adjusts to this level. Crafty kid.[/quote]

Posh and mcgriff will be the mighty mites of thr big east.[/quote]

Cannot wait to see McGriff. I'm hoping for a John Linehan-type player who gives opposing ballhandlers nightmares. Not saying the kid will be a star, but I think he's going to be a very valuable contributor in the Anderson system - and a fan favorite
 
1. That another 100,000 plus individuals do not die of the Corona Virus in the US in the next few months;
2. That there can be a gradual return to normal in society, whatever the new normal is;
3. That there can be some type of a college basketball season this fall or winter.
 
McGriff and Posh both knowing they don't have to pace themselves on D will make us a more dangerous team. Same with Williams, Wusu, and Dunn. We are fine at the 3/4. I still want one more big.
 
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