The 2020-21 season has more question marks than perhaps any other in history. For me there are 4 big questions. In order of importance:
1. Hope: the season is actually played (without severely compromising the health of players/fans/coaches)
Expectation: 45% likely. Unfortunately I don't think the season will be played this year. I certainly expect conferences to attempt to play, maybe even by pushing the start of the season back or limiting fans, but I don't think it'll go as planned. I think the season will get cancelled by late November as more and more schools back out, move their Spring semesters to online, and we enter flu season. Pro sports will most likely successfully return (even with all the issues we're seeing in MLB now), but college sports are very different in that they'll need to take place on campuses and the athletes are unpaid students. That said, I'm sure the NCAA will try REALLY hard for the season to go on as planned, and the majority of athletes may want to compete if enough measures are in place. America is clearly getting impatient.
2. Hope: we reach the NCAA Tournament (assuming of course that the season is actually played)
Expectation: 40% likely. I would have put these odds at around 55% if LJ returned. At this point I'm thinking NIT. A lot will depend on the newcomers outperforming their recruiting rankings (which I actually think is likely to happen), but even that may not be enough to put us over the top. We still finished in 9th place despite a very good last couple weeks. I'm a generally optimistic fan, but the reality is very few bracketologists (if any) will have us in the Tournament pre-season. We as fans like to think we're smarter than the algorithms, but how many times during the past couple decades have we actually outperformed expectations? If we do make the Tournament then that'd be a surprise, but obviously a very pleasant one. That might even cause this board to unify for once!
3. Hope: we pick up a 4 star recruit (or two) for 2021 (preferably by October)
Expectation: 30% likely. Julian Champagnie was obviously an excellent under the radar pick up and nobody is denying that. In hindsight the vast majority of universities would have picked him up. If players like Cole and Posh outperform their 3 star rankings and play like 4 stars too then that'd be awesome. That said, I don't think continuously finding diamonds in the rough is a realistic long-term plan and I doubt the staff thinks that either, which is why they've been hard at work offering a bunch of 4/5 star recruits. Keep in mind, CMA did get a LOT of 4 stars at Arkansas but he still needs to prove that at St. John's. The effort is there but at a point I'd like to see the staff sign a top recruit. Historically speaking 90% of top recruits sign by October of the previous year, so ideally I'd like to see us get someone before the season starts. If not? No need to panic, just need to hope our 2020 class pans out the same way that Julian did (which wouldn't shock me). Overall I am not optimistic we will get a 4 star in 2021 as we don't seem to be at the top of any top recruit's list, at least not publicly.
4. Hope: the Big East has another solid year (5+ Tournament teams) as is ranked at least #4/5 in the conference rankings
Expectation: 85% likely. Conferences have down years all the time. This year the ACC wasn't very good while last year the Big Ten (and Big East) weren't very good. I don't expect us to be #1 in the NET but that's not necessary. As long as we aren't hindered by our schedule and can make the Tournament with a top 6/7 finish, then great. We did lose a LOT of players this year and we'll likely drop, but we have enough returning (plus UConn) to have a respectable year. Also would be great to see our TV deal reworked/extended with more money per school.
This topic may lead to a lot of debates but that's not really the intention, it's more to give thoughts BEFORE anything actually happens, and then those expectations can be revisited later this year and next year. Personally I hope my expectations for 1-3 are wrong, especially #1, otherwise we might never be able to revisit most of these predictions until 2021 (or 2022...?).
I'm sure everyone has different hopes/expectations, so what do you all think?
1. Hope: the season is actually played (without severely compromising the health of players/fans/coaches)
Expectation: 45% likely. Unfortunately I don't think the season will be played this year. I certainly expect conferences to attempt to play, maybe even by pushing the start of the season back or limiting fans, but I don't think it'll go as planned. I think the season will get cancelled by late November as more and more schools back out, move their Spring semesters to online, and we enter flu season. Pro sports will most likely successfully return (even with all the issues we're seeing in MLB now), but college sports are very different in that they'll need to take place on campuses and the athletes are unpaid students. That said, I'm sure the NCAA will try REALLY hard for the season to go on as planned, and the majority of athletes may want to compete if enough measures are in place. America is clearly getting impatient.
2. Hope: we reach the NCAA Tournament (assuming of course that the season is actually played)
Expectation: 40% likely. I would have put these odds at around 55% if LJ returned. At this point I'm thinking NIT. A lot will depend on the newcomers outperforming their recruiting rankings (which I actually think is likely to happen), but even that may not be enough to put us over the top. We still finished in 9th place despite a very good last couple weeks. I'm a generally optimistic fan, but the reality is very few bracketologists (if any) will have us in the Tournament pre-season. We as fans like to think we're smarter than the algorithms, but how many times during the past couple decades have we actually outperformed expectations? If we do make the Tournament then that'd be a surprise, but obviously a very pleasant one. That might even cause this board to unify for once!
3. Hope: we pick up a 4 star recruit (or two) for 2021 (preferably by October)
Expectation: 30% likely. Julian Champagnie was obviously an excellent under the radar pick up and nobody is denying that. In hindsight the vast majority of universities would have picked him up. If players like Cole and Posh outperform their 3 star rankings and play like 4 stars too then that'd be awesome. That said, I don't think continuously finding diamonds in the rough is a realistic long-term plan and I doubt the staff thinks that either, which is why they've been hard at work offering a bunch of 4/5 star recruits. Keep in mind, CMA did get a LOT of 4 stars at Arkansas but he still needs to prove that at St. John's. The effort is there but at a point I'd like to see the staff sign a top recruit. Historically speaking 90% of top recruits sign by October of the previous year, so ideally I'd like to see us get someone before the season starts. If not? No need to panic, just need to hope our 2020 class pans out the same way that Julian did (which wouldn't shock me). Overall I am not optimistic we will get a 4 star in 2021 as we don't seem to be at the top of any top recruit's list, at least not publicly.
4. Hope: the Big East has another solid year (5+ Tournament teams) as is ranked at least #4/5 in the conference rankings
Expectation: 85% likely. Conferences have down years all the time. This year the ACC wasn't very good while last year the Big Ten (and Big East) weren't very good. I don't expect us to be #1 in the NET but that's not necessary. As long as we aren't hindered by our schedule and can make the Tournament with a top 6/7 finish, then great. We did lose a LOT of players this year and we'll likely drop, but we have enough returning (plus UConn) to have a respectable year. Also would be great to see our TV deal reworked/extended with more money per school.
This topic may lead to a lot of debates but that's not really the intention, it's more to give thoughts BEFORE anything actually happens, and then those expectations can be revisited later this year and next year. Personally I hope my expectations for 1-3 are wrong, especially #1, otherwise we might never be able to revisit most of these predictions until 2021 (or 2022...?).
I'm sure everyone has different hopes/expectations, so what do you all think?
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