Agree 100% CR...He came here to win and will...He was a victim of unrealistic expecations at UCLA...I think he will be here for the long term as long as the BE solidifies (which it can w/a good TV deal) and his wife doesnt pressure him to go back to west coast.
with exactly 2 months nto go lets get some
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Agree 100% CR...He came here to win and will...He was a victim of unrealistic expecations at UCLA...I think he will be here for the long term as long as the BE solidifies (which it can w/a good TV deal) and his wife doesnt pressure him to go back to west coast.
Last years squad missed 2 ingredients all teams take for granted, a healthy head coach and enough players to scrimmage at practice. Lav has done some remarkable damage control considering the amount of bad luck he has had with personal health and the volatility of recruitment these days. With those impediments Steve Lavin has parlayed this program Initial success under him into having Jakarr Sampson, Branch, Obekpa, Sanchez among others. In a down Big East year I see us winning 22 games with an 11 win mark in the conference. We should be able to reach round of 32 in ncaas and depending on the seed maybe the Sweet 16.
After watching my VT Hokies finish the regular season with 23 and 21 wins, and top 4 and top 5 finsihes in the ACC in 2010 and 2011 and NOT make the NCAAs, I'm thinking 22 and probably 23 REGULAR season/BE Tourney wins will be needed for a program that was down as long as St. Johns go get past Selection Sunday. I agree we get to the round of 32 (hence my 24 win minimum prediction) - after that it's a crapshoot based on seedings and matchups.
I love the optimism but lets all be realistic here.
We won 13 games and lost our best player and the man who coached the team. Those are serious losses.
In a best case scenario Jakaar = Mo.
We will be better because Dh, Pg, Ag, Gg and Sir Dom will all improve going from freshmen to sophomores. Now we have depth but none of the new players has played a game of Division 1 bball and truthfully I don't expect a great deal off the bat from Fb, Co, Mb or Jb though I believe each one can and will help in their own way. Remember I said off the bat. Other than Jakaar the player I believe that can step in and contribute from day 1 is Orlando who is already 23-24 years old.
I hope I am pleasantly surprised but from where I sit 20 wins would be a very good accomplishment with this group.
We won 13 games and lost our best player and the man who coached the team. Those are serious losses.
In a best case scenario Jakaar = Mo.
We will be better because Dh, Pg, Ag, Gg and Sir Dom will all improve going from freshmen to sophomores. Now we have depth but none of the new players has played a game of Division 1 bball and truthfully I don't expect a great deal off the bat from Fb, Co, Mb or Jb though I believe each one can and will help in their own way. Remember I said off the bat. Other than Jakaar the player I believe that can step in and contribute from day 1 is Orlando who is already 23-24 years old.
I hope I am pleasantly surprised but from where I sit 20 wins would be a very good accomplishment with this group.
I agree. 20 wins would be a "very good accomplishment". But the question wasn't "what would be a very good accomplishment?". It was what WILL this team accomplish. Barring injuries/illness, 24 wins minimum.
You're right. We've lost Mo and Mike Dunlap.
We've replaced Mo with Jakar. And with Orlando. And with Chris. And with Marco. And with Felix. And with Jamal. And with Christian. Forgive me for thinking that as good as Mo is, we are WAY out in front on THAT deal.
And you're righ. We've lost Mike - the guy "who coached the team".
But a guy who, if you're giving him credit for last season, is 13-19 with no postseason experience as a D-1 head coach (or as a player). We've replaced Mike with a 13 year NBA vet coming off of 2 years as an NBA Assistant Coach and an Elite 8, and two Sweet 16's as a player; and....oh yeah, we're also replacing him with another guy who's gone 166-90, with a minimum of 21 wins and NCAA tourneys in 7 of his 8 D-1 head coaching seasons, with an Elite 8, and 4 Sweet 16s in those 8 seasons. So again, forgive me for thinking that as talented as Mike is, we are also WAY out in front on THAT deal as well.
Given the schedule, this team has a potential for playing up to 40 games this season. Barring injury or illness, 24 wins, at least one win in the Dance. Minimum.
I stick by what I wrote and pray that I am wrong.
A 50% improvement in wins from 13 to 20 would be real good but there are too many unknowns at present, meaning how will a whole bunch of new players blend in with the returnees, to think we can do better than 20 wins. Just far too many unknowns at this point in time.
A 50% improvement in wins from 13 to 20 would be real good but there are too many unknowns at present, meaning how will a whole bunch of new players blend in with the returnees, to think we can do better than 20 wins. Just far too many unknowns at this point in time.
Moe was very good, but let's not act like it's losing MJ from the Bulls. Harkless was not even our #1 scorer...Harrison was. IMO Harrison was the more impressive player last year and we still have him. It's amazing how badly he is overlooked. He realistically can be in Big East player of the year conversations if he takes a step forward. Sampson seems like a better player than Harkless to me. He seems to be able to knock down shots if he can't get all the way into the paint. Harkless was great at laying it up and dunking, but he was not good at shooting at all. I think Sampson will be every bit as good and he seems more explosive and game-changing than Moe. Obekpa and Branch in my mind are the biggest factors for our success this year. Can Obekpa live up to even half of his potential constantly swatting balls away? Can Branch be a consistent #3 scorer for us besides Sampson and Harrison? If the answers to those questions are yes, then I expect to make the NCAA's.
Don't get me wrong, I love Moe, but let's not confuse him with losing someone like Derrick Rose when he was with Memphis. He still had a lot of work to do.
Joe let me welcome you back.
I actually didnt want you to leave ( aside from the comedic value ) but as in hazing it will subside.
You will grow into this site. Schmedium tee shirt requests will subside.
Now before you attack me with a long ran let me be clear I do appreciate your point of view and find it quite different which I enjoy also ( how many mjmaherjr posts can I truely love anyway ). ALOT. Anyway I want my fucking tee shirt
Moe was great, albeit with limitations in his range and handle, but if Sanchez, Obekpa and Sampson combined can't produce 50-75% more than Harkless did on his own and Gift just stay where he is than I agree with North, improvement will be tough. But asking those three guys to combine for 25-30 pts and 15-20 rebounds a game isn't a huge ask, and we know they'll easily exceed Moe's block totals. The improvement at the 4/5 is where this team should grow exponentially over last year's and much of that won't even be measured by stats as they will allow for greater defensive intensity simply due to the increased depth and size. No predictions just observations. I expect the team to be quite improved.
PS just noticed the first RSCI for 2013 came out yesterday for those interested in those things. Martin at 10, Lawrence at 12, Wainwright at 35, Jordan at 40, fyi.
PS just noticed the first RSCI for 2013 came out yesterday for those interested in those things. Martin at 10, Lawrence at 12, Wainwright at 35, Jordan at 40, fyi.
I understand what I'm saying is totally subjective, but watching the highlight reels Sampson just appears more flashy and intense. He seems like the better overall player because he can shoot better (from what I saw). I can't tell you how many times I'd watch an SJ game and Harkless threw up bricks. If it's not a layup or dunk he just isn't that good quite simply. I think Sampson can consistently knock down the jumpers and doesn't only need to rely on dunks or layups. Hooper is also interesting...the kid is a lights out shooter. When he is open, he knocks em down especially from downtown. Should be an interesting year.
Harkless a better shooter than Sampson to range, even if he didn't develop it at SJU. Harkless is a smooth shooter. Sampson will have some Raw edges to his game and his shooting won't be spectacular off the bat. Give him time though. He's a great motor and athlete. His midrange has gotten better and he's got a quicker first step than Moe at same height. Different skills, but he'll be good. I think Sanchez might be the one that looks to really surprise though, ad a 6'9" forward with range.
Amir also has decent form on his jumper and I hope he hones it like Postell did. I expect a bit of progress in the areas of shooting in the offseason. Usually a big jump from freshman to soph.
Hooper appears to be a great shooter but he will have to sit out this season as he is a transfer.
There were several times when I saw Harkless pop short jumpers. He still has some work to do on his game, but he wasn't simply confined to layups and dunks.
Sampson is probably more raw than Harkless. Sampson seems to be the better ballhandler and has better quickness. Regardless, I (like austour stated) believe Sampson, Sanchez, and Obekpa will be able to take over the reigns.
By the way, Hooper isn't eligible to play this season.
+1 People are seeing the sheer number of players we've added to the roster and overestimating how much we'll improve over last year.
Yes, I think having reserves and being able to let the starters go 100% without fear of foul trouble or injury will help.
But, the game is about efficiency. We can only play 5 guys at a time. Plus, I still don't see where the scoring is going to come from.
No, it's not sheer numbers, it's sheer talent. Why do you think improvement is overestimated? Usually the greatest jump is from freshman season into soph. We return 4 starters and our 6th man, all of whom logged huge minutes. It's not about having reserves. we have much more than that. How overmatched we're we with only 6'7" Gift and Harkless as our only 2 "bigs" up front, yet we were able to compete? Add - legit center in Obekpa, And two stud PF"sas well as Christian Jones, and our 4/5 spots go from amazingly undermanned to a legitimate force. I think guys like Obekpa, Sanchez and Sampson are all really excellent talents, not "just" depth.
Yes the game is about efficiency, and last year we were as efficient as possible with our resources. Conservative really to avoid fouls etc. Our PG spot should gain a huge upgrade in Jamal Branch who is a true college PG with size to add to Greene. We have help for Harrison as well with Balamou, Greene, Bourgault etc.
I think some are underestimating our talent level on this team. Scoring comes from every position, not just Harrison. I think guys like Sanchez, Amir, Sampson, Bourgault and others are quite capable of putting the ball in the bucket. We won't be a lights-out shooting team but don't have to. SJU has almost never been that even in good years. We will be amazingly athletic and much more physical as well as athletically imposing than last year. I expect us to be much better on the glass as well and push the tempo quite a bit more.
I really think we are being underrated overall and the talent this year in the rest of the Big East is not dwarfing ours in the least. This is a year we make a step forward. Too much talent and depth here to deny.
STJClass_2013
Member
The returnees and new players seem to be getting along fine. In fact last week I saw Chris and Phil after practice getting some dollar slices. Passing the gym as they are practicing is getting me excited, you can hear the energy. These guys look pumped and I can't wait to see what they do. They have also been practicing together, with the exception of Amir since early August so by the time that November comes around they should be passing well. Plus the returnees will know each other better and have a better idea what some will do. If Sir'dom focused on his shooting, driving, and scoring this summer, I think he will be the most improved player on the team.