USA Today predicts St.J's to finish "DFL" in BEast

L'Ville, G'Town, Pitt, Cuse, Marquette, USF, UConn, ND are almost locks to be better than us IMO. I won't complain however if we somehow make it to 5th...we would have to really grow up fast.
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I don't see 5th either but the only teams I see as locks to be better are Ville, Cuse and UND. No one else returns or recruited so much that they have a definitive sizable advantage over the other 5 schools on your list, STJ, Cincy (who will probably be better than 2 or 4 teams on your list), or Rutgers. I see SHU, Nova, Depaul and Prov firmly in the bottom 4. As it usually is in the BE it is again.
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Agree with you here. My one caveat with Notre Dame is that they have been able to gimmick a lot of wins with that "burn" offense. They usually are spaced well and can shoot. They hate playing teams like SJU and Louisville who force the ball out of the hands of their guards and make them create with the ball. Our zones this season should be a ton more effective at preventing ball entry into the post. We have huge guards and long forwards.

Cooley is going to try to have to work inside against a guy like Obekpa, Gift, Sanchez, Sampson, Jones etc which is a far cry from us having a 6'7" Harkless and Gift last season. Teams like SJU don't allow them to effectively "burn" clock. We force them to burn time handling the ball and bringing it across mid-court. By that point, their half-court offense is rushed and needs to beat our matchup zone either by dumping it to Cooley, driving through it or shooting over it with a limited shot clock. I like how we match up with Notre Dame. They are good, but by beatable with our style if we don't allow them to shoot us out of a game. Teams usually don't win that way though.
 
L'Ville, G'Town, Pitt, Cuse, Marquette, USF, UConn, ND are almost locks to be better than us IMO. I won't complain however if we somehow make it to 5th...we would have to really grow up fast.
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I don't see 5th either but the only teams I see as locks to be better are Ville, Cuse and UND. No one else returns or recruited so much that they have a definitive sizable advantage over the other 5 schools on your list, STJ, Cincy (who will probably be better than 2 or 4 teams on your list), or Rutgers. I see SHU, Nova, Depaul and Prov firmly in the bottom 4. As it usually is in the BE it is again.
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Agree with you here. My one caveat with Notre Dame is that they have been able to gimmick a lot of wins with that "burn" offense. They usually are spaced well and can shoot. They hate playing teams like SJU and Louisville who force the ball out of the hands of their guards and make them create with the ball. Our zones this season should be a ton more effective at preventing ball entry into the post. We have huge guards and long forwards.

Cooley is going to try to have to work inside against a guy like Obekpa, Gift, Sanchez, Sampson, Jones etc which is a far cry from us having a 6'7" Harkless and Gift last season. Teams like SJU don't allow them to effectively "burn" clock. We force them to burn time handling the ball and bringing it across mid-court. By that point, their half-court offense is rushed and needs to beat our matchup zone either by dumping it to Cooley, driving through it or shooting over it with a limited shot clock. I like how we match up with Notre Dame. They are good, but by beatable with our style if we don't allow them to shoot us out of a game. Teams usually don't win that way though.
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I agree with you on this. Although a stretch, we may be able to sweep ND this year given the way we matchup and the fact that the away game is so late in the year when we should really be tough. G'Town is the team that I would move into the top three instead of ND.
 
 Just because we beat ND 3/4 times recently doesn't mean a thing. It's not like we blew them out either. If anything, it tells me that we are due to lose a few to them (law of averages). Maybe winning like 40/50 of the previous meetings is having a team's number, but winning 3/4 is a really small sample size. We beat Cincy at the buzzer, but that doesn't make me think we are better. We got away with a few games. We still have not proven we can beat teams like Pitt, G'Town, Marquette with this squad. I think we can certainly hang with them now that we are deep, but not necessarily beat them. Pitt was awful last year and still steamrolled us both games easily. They only got better. Schools like G'Town just know what it takes to win and have had an eye for talent for a while now. We are the infants of the Big East still. Let's just see what we have and judge from there. I don't think 9-12 is undercutting this team. I wouldn't even talk top 5 unless we get a guy like Mc or Lawrence for next year. Many people on here assume players only get better, but some may get worse or get injured...you never know what will happen.
 
 Just because we beat ND 3/4 times recently doesn't mean a thing. It's not like we blew them out either. If anything, it tells me that we are due to lose a few to them (law of averages). Maybe winning like 40/50 of the previous meetings is having a team's number, but winning 3/4 is a really small sample size. We beat Cincy at the buzzer, but that doesn't make me think we are better. We got away with a few games. We still have not proven we can beat teams like Pitt, G'Town, Marquette with this squad. I think we can certainly hang with them now that we are deep, but not necessarily beat them. Pitt was awful last year and still steamrolled us both games easily. They only got better. Schools like G'Town just know what it takes to win and have had an eye for talent for a while now. We are the infants of the Big East still. Let's just see what we have and judge from there. I don't think 9-12 is undercutting this team. I wouldn't even talk top 5 unless we get a guy like Mc or Lawrence for next year. Many people on here assume players only get better, but some may get worse or get injured...you never know what will happen.
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STJ will be a top 25 school. I understand where you are going with the "law of averages," but understand these are independent outcomes. Just because the coin landed heads nine times in a row, doesn't change the fact that there is a 50/50 chance it will land on heads again.

This team won 13 games last season. That is remarkable for what they had to work with.
 
I'm so excited for this season that time seems to have slowed down. It needs to be November 1st already. This time last year, the mood was a lot more negative and depressing after Sampson, Pelle, Gathers, Wood, etc. decommitted, Coach Lav was gone, etc. This year we have only positive things to look forward to. It's like not being able to play with your toys on Christmas morning...can't wait!
 
Thanks "Dees",
Barring a typo, i just re-sorted that list. We are "tied" for 29th in terms of having the best chances of winning it all... I presume these odds get impacted based on the way (they expect) people to bet...
How do we feel about this? Seems pretty solid to me...
   
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Actually tied 28 since Field doesn't really count as a team. Also you have LaSalle in the +2500 position but it looks like they're really +25000 so now they're tied for 27th . . . progress. As it stands now they have STJ 5th in the BE. That's pretty good. The biggest indignation is that Rutgers is the only BE team to be assigned to the field. LOL

That said betting lines are based on how the guys taking the bet are going to make the most money, not based on who they actually think is going to win. I got a million people to bet $100 on Temple today they'd quickly jump up into the top ten of odds.
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Yep. Thanks. I definitely made one or two typos when I had to sort the data. But it should be close enough to what we need - to what the odds-makers are thinking... good enough for our purposes.
 
 Just because we beat ND 3/4 times recently doesn't mean a thing. It's not like we blew them out either. If anything, it tells me that we are due to lose a few to them (law of averages). Maybe winning like 40/50 of the previous meetings is having a team's number, but winning 3/4 is a really small sample size. We beat Cincy at the buzzer, but that doesn't make me think we are better. We got away with a few games. We still have not proven we can beat teams like Pitt, G'Town, Marquette with this squad. I think we can certainly hang with them now that we are deep, but not necessarily beat them. Pitt was awful last year and still steamrolled us both games easily. They only got better. Schools like G'Town just know what it takes to win and have had an eye for talent for a while now. We are the infants of the Big East still. Let's just see what we have and judge from there. I don't think 9-12 is undercutting this team. I wouldn't even talk top 5 unless we get a guy like Mc or Lawrence for next year. Many people on here assume players only get better, but some may get worse or get injured...you never know what will happen.
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STJ will be a top 25 school. I understand where you are going with the "law of averages," but understand these are independent outcomes. Just because the coin landed heads nine times in a row, doesn't change the fact that there is a 50/50 chance it will land on heads again.

This team won 13 games last season. That is remarkable for what they had to work with.
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Agree with you Marillac, but unfortunately too many others do not see it that way.
 
 Easy there killer...I don't think we will finish last either...almost 100% certain of that. BUT...to say we will be no lower than 7th in the Big East that still has Cuse ND, Pitt, UConn, G'Town, L'Ville, Cincy, Marquette, Nova, USF, etc. If I was betting money I would say we finish anywhere from 9th-12th.
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Losing Dunlap has to figure into some of the calculations
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What calculation is that? Steve Lavin has as many Sweet 16's as Howland, Buzz and Brey COMBINED and he did it without Dunlap.
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I just felt Dunlap had game plans that were well thought out and usually caused havoc to the other coaches. He was a sharp tactician
 
 Just because we beat ND 3/4 times recently doesn't mean a thing. It's not like we blew them out either. If anything, it tells me that we are due to lose a few to them (law of averages). Maybe winning like 40/50 of the previous meetings is having a team's number, but winning 3/4 is a really small sample size. We beat Cincy at the buzzer, but that doesn't make me think we are better. We got away with a few games. We still have not proven we can beat teams like Pitt, G'Town, Marquette with this squad. I think we can certainly hang with them now that we are deep, but not necessarily beat them. Pitt was awful last year and still steamrolled us both games easily. They only got better. Schools like G'Town just know what it takes to win and have had an eye for talent for a while now. We are the infants of the Big East still. Let's just see what we have and judge from there. I don't think 9-12 is undercutting this team. I wouldn't even talk top 5 unless we get a guy like Mc or Lawrence for next year. Many people on here assume players only get better, but some may get worse or get injured...you never know what will happen.
Click to expand...
 

STJ will be a top 25 school. I understand where you are going with the "law of averages," but understand these are independent outcomes. Just because the coin landed heads nine times in a row, doesn't change the fact that there is a 50/50 chance it will land on heads again.

This team won 13 games last season. That is remarkable for what they had to work with.
Click to expand...
 

Agree with you Marillac, but unfortunately too many others do not see it that way.
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I agree with you, as well. There are certain styles that teams match up better against. ND is one of those teams, although we haven't proven we can beat them at ND. Not sure if we can do that this year with a young crew, but I do feel like we have a legitimate shot for once. To Joe's point, you don't need to beat a team 40 out of 50 to prove you have their number. The only relevant data in terms of playing style is play under these two coaches, and we've split in two years. Players are different of course, but as we now have better talent, the defensive style we play should be even more disruptive to a team like ND.

As for top 25, it is aspirational, but also within reach. The schedule is favorable and allows us to get our legs underneath us before BE play starts. Joe, you will get your evidence soon enough.
 
 Easy there killer...I don't think we will finish last either...almost 100% certain of that. BUT...to say we will be no lower than 7th in the Big East that still has Cuse ND, Pitt, UConn, G'Town, L'Ville, Cincy, Marquette, Nova, USF, etc. If I was betting money I would say we finish anywhere from 9th-12th.
Click to expand...
 

Losing Dunlap has to figure into some of the calculations
Click to expand...
 

What calculation is that? Steve Lavin has as many Sweet 16's as Howland, Buzz and Brey COMBINED and he did it without Dunlap.
Click to expand...
 
I just felt Dunlap had game plans that were well thought out and usually caused havoc to the other coaches. He was a sharp tactician
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How do you know how much of that was Dunlap and how much was Lavin? The assumption is that all of our strategies are Dunlap's and I don't think that is true. Lavin was mixing zone defenses and doing s lot of similar things even back in his ucla days. No doubt losing a smart coach like Dunlap never helps a team, but it won't necessarily yield poorer results. Lavin is still the lead guy here and all the players know that. Like I said, Lavin was winning before ever having been on the same sideline as Dunlap. Time to move on.
 
We are not finishing anywhere near last in the Big East. D'Angelo Harrison is going to emerge as one (if he hasen't already) of the best players and leaders in the Big East. On top of that we have guys who went through the ringer last season and played well against much deeper rosters. Those days are gone. We have added the size (Obekpa, Sampson, Sanchez) to help God's Gift. That was a major shortcoming last year. We have depth and flexibility all over the place. Sure some of them are young. However, most of them are big recruits who have come from programs that are "used" to winning. I think we can win. I am not setting any low expectations for them. Of course what I think means nothing. More importantly I think these kids THINK they can win and win big. They have not been infected by our sometimes jaded (hey we've struggled) loser mentality. You all know what I am talking about, "well it's ok if we finish 10th".  Its time to raise the bar. We can be as good as any team in the Big East. Anything less is baloney.
 
 A lot of the games we lost were due to the zone and we couldn't play man due to manpower problems. This year it's a whole new ballgame and we match up athletically much better. This will improve the zone and allow us to go man when necessary. That's much better than the one trick pony stuff from last season. I think Steve will mix it up much more and take advantage of a deep roster. Don't know what Dunlap would do but it's irrelevant from here on. Players win games and we have a bunch.
 
 I couldn't agree more. The depth and numbers really limited a talented group of players. How much more effective might some of our guys become if they can actually get a rest with out a steep drop-off in talent? Might Coach Lavin press more to take advantage of a deeper roster? How many times did Gift have to play timid because of fouls? Not this year. He will have a shotblocker in Obekpa and a versatile guy like Sanchez and Sampson behind him. Hey, what about a shooter like Bourgault who will help break the strict zone employed against us? Change is coming.
 
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