The only reality in sports is that you absolutely don't know what's going to happen, the beauty of sports.
Actually in most sports most people know what's going to happen most of the time. Three hundred hitters hit .300. 90 percent FT shooters make most of their free throws. Well bred horses run faster than off brand ones. The Patriots beat the Jets; the Lions suck. What you are suggesting - "you absolutely don't know what's going to happen" - is that sports exists in a state of perpetual chaos, whereas in fact nearly everything is relatively quantifiable, regular, and predictable. That's why bookies are able to set odds that are invariably correct. There are of course outliers, just as there are in every area of life. Those outliers are in sports called longshots. We know that they are unlikely to occur because we know what is likely to occur.
Every once in a while a plane crashes, but you don't say about transportation by air that "you absolutely don't know whether your plane is going to crash, that's the beauty of aviation." That would be nonsensical and paralytic.
Disagree of course, because stats as you site take all the joy out of sports. So the US Hockey team didn't beat the Russians in 1960 and 1980, the Mets and Jets didn't win in 1969, and the Knicks couldn't have possibly beaten the Lakers 2 out of 3 without Willis. Just a very few personal "impossibilities" according to you and your stats that I will always enjoy looking back on. Why do you bother watching or caring about something you can obviously figure out like some 2nd grade math problem?
Predictive modeling in sports can only predict likely outcomes, which is why the games must be played. Over the long run, they are fairly accurate but in a single event scenario, an upset can occur. We may beat a top 30 team, even a team that runs deep into the tourney, but the odds of us making the tournament, going deep into it, or winning a national title this year are astronomical. That is all he is saying. As I've always said though, is, that's why you have to play the games. Preseason picks for good teams may falter, injuries occur, and prized recruits flame out. On the other hand one of our recruits may turn out to be an all Big East player.
