Still weirdly optimistic about this staff’s ability to have success, but it has to be next year. They are effectively playing with 6 guys and are in games that are surprising for them to be in and that deeper SJU teams have rarely been in of late. And despite coming up short Nova and @X they came back and played hard again on Saturday. Not sure if that’s talent or coaching or a combination but it’s impressive.
That optimism nothwithstanding there are at least 3 things that will hopefully be addressed:
1. No matter how hard the staff is working they are heading for a record in Year 3 that in the real world would likely mandate some sort of shake up on the staff. So either SJU is living in the real world or they are living in a world where a program legend as a player gets more leniency as a coach than a non-legend would. I like Goff quite a bit just from what I’ve seen from afar and others have said, and someone in athletic administration not affiliated with SJU has mentioned to me that Goff is thought of highly in the industry. But IMO this April/May will be a critical juncture for Goff with respect to this program. Don’t think anyone needs to be fired if it can be avoided, but there needs to be change and reassignment, and that should happen closer to the top than the bottom. We need a legitimate first assistant, not a third. Impact hire, not rearranging deck chairs.
2. To that end one of the main things I was hoping Mullin would bring was stability and limiting the bizarre drama that seems to so often surround SJU hoops. In certain ways I think he is moving towards stability generally (seems to be great kids on team, more balance in recruiting, etc.), but hasn’t had as much success limiting the latter. Getting a coach to come to SJU from Kentucky, only to have him leave after one year; losing a transfer before classes even start in freshman year; a potential all-conference caliber player being (apparently) medically cleared to play but the injury leading to him not just not playing but leaving the program. Without revisiting each situation specifically or assigning blame, collectively that’s just bizarre stuff. Even in today’s game of rampant transfers and roster turnover, we’re kidding ourselves if we think most other programs deal with this level of strange. Maybe a collection of others, but would think we are comfortably in the top 10% and probably higher in D1.
3. Likely the other main thing I hoped Mullin’s staff would change is the utter insanity around lack of strategic adjustments, both in-game but perhaps more importantly from game to game. This staff definitely seems to put individual players in a position to succeed more than prior regimes, but the ability to effectuate change related to glaring weaknesses over the course of the season just has not been there. SJU is 314/351 D1 teams in 3pt FG% defense. They have allowed opponents to collectively shoot 38.4% from 3, which is a good number for an individual player to shoot for a season, let alone a team, and let alone 19 different teams, especially when only 2 of those 19 teams are shooting better than 38.4% against the rest of their opponents. And yet there has been little if any change in fundamental approach. Team still plays extreme help defense leaving shooters wide open, which doesn't make a lot of sense given SJU's quick hands and shot blockers when offensive players are in traffic, and which is likely why teams shoot better against SJU than they do on average.
It’s frustrating to watch two far better teams like X and SHU play and mix defenses tactically based upon game situation and personnel. And they could probably get away with playing 100% man if they wanted to. By comparison what do we have to lose? Sat with a former D1 assistant coach at the Nova game, and he was fairly surprised by SJU lack of showing different looks defensively and expressed concern that when the NBA game is really what you know there can be certain approaches that just don’t translate to the college game. At this point, I really can’t think of any explanation for the defensive approach and the unwillingness to even try something else. Players deserve more here.
I don’t subscribe to the notion that if Mullin can’t win here then maybe nobody can. Mullin didn’t have coaching experience and was a higher risk/higher reward type hire, and that is sort of playing out. Of the 9 other teams in our 10 team conference, at least 7 are somewhere between hoping their current coach never leaves to very happy with the current returns from their coach. Those include different types of schools, in different areas of the country, with all different types and quality of facilities. SJU isn’t different from them, it’s largely about the hire. My understanding is if it wasn’t Mullin it may have been Danny Hurley, and while I doubt Danny would be interested now I’m sure the next coach that is where Danny was 3 years ago would be.
Which is why it’s critical in my view that some or all of the above get addressed and we win big next year. Massively underperforming expectations this year does not reset the shotclock on next year’s expectations. Needs to be 20+ wins and NCAA with quality outlook for 19-20, and regarding the latter even if (and hoping) Ponds/Clark/Owens are back next year, all will either have graduated or likely have moved on for 19-20, so quite a bit of reloading to do in short timeframe on top of just next year's performance. Rooting for them.