Lavin's recruiting his first 3 cycles here (and you can even throw in getting Polee right after he was hired) was nothing short of incredible. He was initially selling next to nothing in light of where our program was and almost exclusively brought in players who, if they didn't come to SJU, were going to other major schools in power conferences. How they turned out aside (some good and bad in terms of their on court production), he was competing with the big boys and winning.
This year, while not over, has been quiet and I don't know that anyone is entirely sure why that is the case. The staff probably has their reasons, and it certainly isn't enough for me to question Lavin's ability to recruit given his previously excellent record under difficult circumstances here.
My question, though, is how much does it matter? I'm of the mind that we have significant talent on the roster. The only way we can acquire materially more talent is by consistently recruiting Top 25 and Top 50 talent - basically recruiting like Kentucky, UNC, Duke, Syracuse, and Florida. While I wouldn't completely count Lavin out from being able to accomplish that, it certainly isn't on the immediate menu and is a really high bar to clear.
Which brings us right back to recruiting at about the same level that we have been - which again, even though there are those who disagree (especially vis-a-vis "talent" v. "athletes", which is valid) I believe to be a pretty high level. And if that is the talent arena in which we are going to be operating, the question then is not "can Lavin acquire the talent", but instead is "what is Lavin able to do with it?"
Based on what I saw this year, unfortunately, not enough. 20 wins is nice but not what it used to be; 2 games over .500 in a less impressive conference; 2-7 against tournament teams from within that conference; 2-9 against tournament teams overall...only one of which is still playing this coming weekend. Perhaps more disconcerting than the end-game results is that, with the exception of a 1 month stretch from Jan. 18 - Feb. 18, the on-court play was at best representative of the mediocre results.
There is no doubt that we have an opportunity next year, with Harrison as a senior, and Jordan/Sampson/Obekpa (assuming we are able to keep that trio intact) to take a significant step. But in general, as it stands right now it seems to me that Lavin either needs to (1) recruit at such a high level (even higher than he has to date) that X/O are removed from the conversation to the greatest extent possible, or (2) coach the level of talent he currently has at a much higher level. Beyond that I think conversations about his recruiting are close to moot.
I think part of the problem, as many pointed out, is that he's failed to level out the classes. We're due to graduate much of our roster after next season, and come into 2015 with the youngest team in the nation again. That's not a good formula.
Next year will be level.,
Seniors: D’Angelo Harrison 2G
Phil Greene 2G
Jamal Branch PG
Dominic Pointer SF
Juniors: Jakarr Sampson F
Chris Obekpa C
Matt Hooper 2G
Soph: Rysheed Jordan PG
Christian Jones PF
Felix Balamou W
Frosh: Adonis DeLaRosa C
Then you're assuming that Obekpa, Sampson and Rysheed are here after next season. I think it's fair to assume at least 2 will be gone, if not 3. So then you're having to replace anywhere from 4,5,6,7 guys in one class.
Jakarr will be back.
Obekpa too if he doesn't transfer
Rysheed loves St. John's, and if he doesn't explode and have an excellent season he will be back.
I'd say 2/3 will be back for sure, and it's 50/50 for 3/3
What do you mean Rysheed loves St. Johns? I'm sure he loves $$ and the NBA more than St. John's, and has a great chance of bolting. Jakarr is a wild card, we'll see if he takes the next step which he was supposed to take this year. Obekpa who knows.