I think we need to go 11-7 in conference (with probably 3 or 4 of those wins being over the likes of Nova, Marquette, Gtown, Creighton) to feel reasonably good about our chances of getting into the Dance. The league just isnt very good this year and there arent many "quality wins" left on our schedule to get. We have the most talent in the conference IMO.
In 2012 9 of 16 Big East teams got bids, which led the country by far (Big Ten and Big 12 had six). What makes you think in the first year of a weaker conference that the Big east will get 5 bids?
At the moment this is a 2 bid conference. 3 tops. After the automatic bids, the top-25 and the at-large bids for the ACC, Big 10, PAC 10, there just aren't that many bids left to go around. The BE will get one more bid than the A-10, MVC, etc.