(PRE-GAME) #8/#10 Villanova (MSG) Tues. Jan. 28, 6:30p, FS-1 / 570 AM

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Per the Big East Facebook page:

Calling All BIG EAST, Villanova and St. John's Fans!

Stop by Stout Bar right across from Madison Square Garden before the Wildcats and Red Storm square off Tuesday night. BIG EAST Shootaround will be on location, and you could be selected for trivia for a chance to win a gift card or BIG EAST Tournament Championship Game tickets!
 
[quote="Duke of Earlington" post=374361]If we win on Tuesday, we are back in the ncaa tournament discussion.[/quote]

Yep, correct. We'd start showing up in some brackets with a W. This would be our 4th Q1 win. People focus way too much on conference record. That's irrelevant and we're doing well in what matters (NET and Q1). If 8-10 with 5 Q1 wins got us in last year (in a far weaker Big East), then 7-11 / 1-1 BET probably gets us in this year. Our NET today is 7 spots better than it was on Selection Sunday of last year. That's before a hypothetical Nova win. We'd be at a minimum on the bubble, and in my opinion on the right side of it.

Do I think we'll end up making the Tournament? Absolutely not, because we'll be underdogs in likely every game the rest of the way. There's no reason we can't make the NIT, though, given that a lot of those games we'll only be slight dogs in. Get a win tomorrow and I'm pretty confident we'll at least make the NIT.

I know the 2-6 BE start has been depressing and I'm not getting my hopes up, but we don't need to make the situation appear worse than it actually is. We're #66 in NET with 3 Q1 wins. We're in good shape today and would be in great shape tomorrow with a win. Over the last 6 years this is the 2nd best season we've had up until January 27 (with last year being our best season). Yes, that includes Lavin's final season because we didn't do as well OOC and started Big East play 0-5. Don't worry too much about our record and take everything one game at a time.
 
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[quote="Adam" post=374467][quote="Duke of Earlington" post=374361]If we win on Tuesday, we are back in the ncaa tournament discussion.[/quote]

Yep, correct. We'd start showing up in some brackets with a W. This would be our 4th Q1 win. People focus way too much on conference record. That's irrelevant and we're doing well in what matters (NET and Q1). If 8-10 with 5 Q1 wins got us in last year (in a far weaker Big East), then 7-11 / 1-1 BET probably gets us in this year. Our NET today is 7 spots better than it was on Selection Sunday of last year. That's before a hypothetical Nova win. We'd be at a minimum on the bubble, and in my opinion on the right side of it.

Do I think we'll end up making the Tournament? Absolutely not, because we'll be underdogs in likely every game the rest of the way. There's no reason we can't make the NIT, though, given that a lot of those games we'll only be slight dogs in. Get a win tomorrow and I'm pretty confident we'll at least make the NIT.

I know the 2-6 BE start has been depressing and I'm not getting my hopes up, but we don't need to make the situation appear worse than it actually is. We're #66 in NET with 3 Q1 wins. We're in good shape today and would be in great shape tomorrow with a win. Over the last 6 years this is the 2nd best season we've had up until January 27 (with last year being our best season). Yes, that includes Lavin's final season because we didn't do as well OOC and started Big East play 0-5. Don't worry too much about our record and take everything one game at a time.[/quote]

Good stuff. I thought the 0-5 start was Harrison abs company’s junior year.
 
[quote="Amaseinyourface" post=374477][quote="Adam" post=374467][quote="Duke of Earlington" post=374361]If we win on Tuesday, we are back in the ncaa tournament discussion.[/quote]

Yep, correct. We'd start showing up in some brackets with a W. This would be our 4th Q1 win. People focus way too much on conference record. That's irrelevant and we're doing well in what matters (NET and Q1). If 8-10 with 5 Q1 wins got us in last year (in a far weaker Big East), then 7-11 / 1-1 BET probably gets us in this year. Our NET today is 7 spots better than it was on Selection Sunday of last year. That's before a hypothetical Nova win. We'd be at a minimum on the bubble, and in my opinion on the right side of it.

Do I think we'll end up making the Tournament? Absolutely not, because we'll be underdogs in likely every game the rest of the way. There's no reason we can't make the NIT, though, given that a lot of those games we'll only be slight dogs in. Get a win tomorrow and I'm pretty confident we'll at least make the NIT.

I know the 2-6 BE start has been depressing and I'm not getting my hopes up, but we don't need to make the situation appear worse than it actually is. We're #66 in NET with 3 Q1 wins. We're in good shape today and would be in great shape tomorrow with a win. Over the last 6 years this is the 2nd best season we've had up until January 27 (with last year being our best season). Yes, that includes Lavin's final season because we didn't do as well OOC and started Big East play 0-5. Don't worry too much about our record and take everything one game at a time.[/quote]

Good stuff. I thought the 0-5 start was Harrison abs company’s junior year.[/quote]

You're correct, my mistake. 0-5 was Harrison's junior year.

That said, their senior year still got off to a rough Big East start. We started 11-1 OOC (our best was @ Syracuse- later on we lost vs Duke to get to 11-2 OOC). We started Big East play 0-3 against weaker competition. From there we went 2-3 (including a loss to Duke) to get to 2-5.

So, that Tournament year we started 11-2 OOC 2-5 BE. This year we're 11-2 OOC 2-6 BE, however our schedule has also been tougher. This year we also have more Q1 wins and I'm sure a much higher NET than that year's team had at this point. I still think we have a better resume now than we did then.

The main difference is that team was better than this team (going by Vegas lines) and also had an easier Big East league to play in, so for them the turnaround was a lot easier than it'd be for this year's team. As mentioned, though, no reason we can't make the NIT.
 
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This game is a turning point of the season. If we can win this, we go on a major upswing and I think the unexpected happens and we get a big east bid.

If we lose this game, I think we go into a little tailspin and the NIT will be best case scenario.
 
[quote="MCNPA" post=374481]We are only 3pt underdogs in this one apparently.[/quote]
Obviously a tough one, but SJU has played well at MSG to date.
 
[quote="MCNPA" post=374481]We are only 3pt underdogs in this one apparently.[/quote]

Wow, I expected more around +5. Maybe Vegas really liked our DePaul win. At +3 this is nearly a coin flip. Our odds of winning would be somewhere in the low 40s%.

Funny to think, in back to back games:
@ DePaul (worst team in the Big East) we were 5.5 point dogs.
Vs #8 Villanova we are 3 point dogs.
 
[quote="Adam" post=374483][quote="MCNPA" post=374481]We are only 3pt underdogs in this one apparently.[/quote]

Wow, I expected more around +5. Maybe Vegas really liked our DePaul win. At +3 this is nearly a coin flip. Our odds of winning would be somewhere in the low 40s%.

Funny to think, in back to back games:
@ DePaul (worst team in the Big East) we were 5.5 point dogs.
Vs #8 Villanova we are 3 point dogs.[/quote]
Heron & LJ finally playing well together factor perhaps.
 
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I’d add that Nova is one of the worst rebounding teams in the Big East this year and dead last in FG% defense. It means we should have scoring opportunities against them. It makes it imperative for us to own the glass. Can’t put them at the line early because they are great FT shooters. Don’t want to lose that way.
 
[quote="MCNPA" post=374489]I’d add that Nova is one of the worst rebounding teams in the Big East this year and dead last in FG% defense. It means we should have scoring opportunities against them. It makes it imperative for us to own the glass. Can’t put them at the line early because they are great FT shooters. Don’t want to lose that way.[/quote]
Good point on not fouling Nova, plus they always get benefit of doubt from zebras in that regard similar to Duke nonsense.
 
[quote="Enright" post=374487]The eight point swing between home and away courts is quite significant.[/quote]

Certainly, just saying how strong the Big East is where Vegas gave our last place team that much respect compared to a top 10 team. It's nice that the entire Big East schedule is unpredictable even when the basement plays ranked teams. DePaul's 1 win was against Butler and they forced Nova to OT... on the road.
 
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[quote="MCNPA" post=374481]We are only 3pt underdogs in this one apparently.[/quote]

Bookies are usually on the money
Spread is closer than I would have expected
While the game is at MSG, Nova will be well represented
 
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[quote="Duke of Earlington" post=374495]Vegas loves the Johnnies tomorrow night. get ready boys. Upset city![/quote]

Please, stop with your predictions. :lol:
 
[quote="Paultzman" post=374485][quote="Adam" post=374483][quote="MCNPA" post=374481]We are only 3pt underdogs in this one apparently.[/quote]

Wow, I expected more around +5. Maybe Vegas really liked our DePaul win. At +3 this is nearly a coin flip. Our odds of winning would be somewhere in the low 40s%.

Funny to think, in back to back games:
@ DePaul (worst team in the Big East) we were 5.5 point dogs.
Vs #8 Villanova we are 3 point dogs.[/quote]
Heron & LJ finally playing well together factor perhaps.[/quote]

Only one game, get consistent then it should be a factor.
 
I think the main key to tomorrow nights game is to pressure Gillespie into turning the ball over. I’ve seen him get rattled in earlier games with pressure. Rutherford and Dunn will be key on D tomorrow.
 
[quote="Duke of Earlington" post=374480]This game is a turning point of the season. If we can win this, we go on a major upswing and I think the unexpected happens and we get a big east bid.

If we lose this game, I think we go into a little tailspin and the NIT will be best case scenario.[/quote]

Go into a.tailspin? We 2-6, and won one game. That's like losing 10straight then saying we're out of a tailspin because we beat another bad team.

Tomorrow is a big opportunity, if we win that then that's 2 straight.
Then you look at the next 2 of the next 3, they're winnable at home.
If you win all those winnable games, we're 5-7, I'd say they're right back in the mix of things.
What you got guys???
 
I like the matchup. Gillespie will deal with a much different type of pressure tomorrow night. They don’t have many “ball handlers” but they do have guys who can knock down shots. Gonna have to move on the pass, limit the gambling, and stay in front of them. If the Johnnies do that, they’ll be able to run after collecting defensive rebounds and really put pressure on them by attacking the rim relentlessly. It would help if LJ and Mustapha can build on last game. I think it’s time to make a run.

CMA usually has a good string of wins in the mid/late conference season. Let’s hope this will be the start. Gotta make it a street fight! Gotta out scrap Nova! But I do like the matchup. No overwhelming size to deal with.
 
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