NIT Bracketology - St John's In
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Guys, I know it might be hard to understand in this day and age, but it's all about RPI, SOS, record in last 10, who you beat, and where you beat them. This is especially more true now that the NCAA took over the NIT.
St John's has an extremely unique situation this year, one we really don't have an example to compare to from years past.
It will certainly be interesting to see how we're handled, but I do believe a win against Providence on the road gives us a good shot.
St John's has an extremely unique situation this year, one we really don't have an example to compare to from years past.
It will certainly be interesting to see how we're handled, but I do believe a win against Providence on the road gives us a good shot.
As pointed out by Section9 the Providence game shapes up as one of SJU's toughest games of the year, away game, ailing Ponds at best, Prov fighting for a bid probably means we have to win the big east opener and the second game vs Xavier to get NIT consideration.
I am thinking that if we are 500, we get in. THe big wins, SOS, relatively high RPI, injuries, NYC base, etc. But ???
L J S A
Well-known member
[quote="NCJohnnie" post=274478]Does anyone know whether the game against Molloy counts as a win for NIT consideration purposes? I'd expect not, but wasn't sure..[/quote]
I'm pretty sure at the time of the Molloy game I said something about hoping it doesn't bite us in the ass. We shouldn't be scheduling D-II opponents ever, unless it's exhibition and we play at their house.
I'm pretty sure at the time of the Molloy game I said something about hoping it doesn't bite us in the ass. We shouldn't be scheduling D-II opponents ever, unless it's exhibition and we play at their house.
NCJohnnie wrote: Does anyone know whether the game against Molloy counts as a win for NIT consideration purposes? I'd expect not, but wasn't sure..
I'm pretty sure at the time of the Molloy game I said something about hoping it doesn't bite us in the ass. We shouldn't be scheduling D-II opponents ever, unless it's exhibition and we play at their house.
I understand that RPI, SOS, quadrant wins and other factors are much more significant than won/loss record in determining who gets into the NIT and there is no longer a requirement that the team be better than 500 to get in. Having said that, won-loss record must at least be used as a point of reference and there are many posters who, like me are speculating we'd at least need to be .500 to have any chance to get in. Right now, we are 15-15 with the win against Molloy 14-15, without it. So if we were to beat Providence and win 1 game in BE tourney, would NIT committee look at us as 17-16 or 16-16? Maybe I am being dense and it is really irrelevant for purposes of NIT selection.
LJSA, hope my question is also irrelevant because we win BE tourney, but just covering our bases.
I'm pretty sure at the time of the Molloy game I said something about hoping it doesn't bite us in the ass. We shouldn't be scheduling D-II opponents ever, unless it's exhibition and we play at their house.
I understand that RPI, SOS, quadrant wins and other factors are much more significant than won/loss record in determining who gets into the NIT and there is no longer a requirement that the team be better than 500 to get in. Having said that, won-loss record must at least be used as a point of reference and there are many posters who, like me are speculating we'd at least need to be .500 to have any chance to get in. Right now, we are 15-15 with the win against Molloy 14-15, without it. So if we were to beat Providence and win 1 game in BE tourney, would NIT committee look at us as 17-16 or 16-16? Maybe I am being dense and it is really irrelevant for purposes of NIT selection.
LJSA, hope my question is also irrelevant because we win BE tourney, but just covering our bases.
L J S A
Well-known member
[quote="NCJohnnie" post=274553]NCJohnnie wrote: Does anyone know whether the game against Molloy counts as a win for NIT consideration purposes? I'd expect not, but wasn't sure..
I'm pretty sure at the time of the Molloy game I said something about hoping it doesn't bite us in the ass. We shouldn't be scheduling D-II opponents ever, unless it's exhibition and we play at their house.
I understand that RPI, SOS, quadrant wins and other factors are much more significant than won/loss record in determining who gets into the NIT and there is no longer a requirement that the team be better than 500 to get in. Having said that, won-loss record must at least be used as a point of reference and there are many posters who, like me are speculating we'd at least need to be .500 to have any chance to get in. Right now, we are 15-15 with the win against Molloy 14-15, without it. So if we were to beat Providence and win 1 game in BE tourney, would NIT committee look at us as 17-16 or 16-16? Maybe I am being dense and it is really irrelevant for purposes of NIT selection.
LJSA, hope my question is also irrelevant because we win BE tourney, but just covering our bases.[/quote]
I have to imagine we are 14-15 in their eyes right now. It would be a silly point for the NIT to differ from the big tournament on, particularly if you are already a red-headed stepchild.
As a point of reference, the link shows last year's NIT bracket. Note that there isn't a single 16-loss team in the field.
I'm pretty sure at the time of the Molloy game I said something about hoping it doesn't bite us in the ass. We shouldn't be scheduling D-II opponents ever, unless it's exhibition and we play at their house.
I understand that RPI, SOS, quadrant wins and other factors are much more significant than won/loss record in determining who gets into the NIT and there is no longer a requirement that the team be better than 500 to get in. Having said that, won-loss record must at least be used as a point of reference and there are many posters who, like me are speculating we'd at least need to be .500 to have any chance to get in. Right now, we are 15-15 with the win against Molloy 14-15, without it. So if we were to beat Providence and win 1 game in BE tourney, would NIT committee look at us as 17-16 or 16-16? Maybe I am being dense and it is really irrelevant for purposes of NIT selection.
LJSA, hope my question is also irrelevant because we win BE tourney, but just covering our bases.
[/quote]I have to imagine we are 14-15 in their eyes right now. It would be a silly point for the NIT to differ from the big tournament on, particularly if you are already a red-headed stepchild.
As a point of reference, the link shows last year's NIT bracket. Note that there isn't a single 16-loss team in the field.
[quote="NCJohnnie" post=274553]NCJohnnie wrote: Does anyone know whether the game against Molloy counts as a win for NIT consideration purposes? I'd expect not, but wasn't sure..
I'm pretty sure at the time of the Molloy game I said something about hoping it doesn't bite us in the ass. We shouldn't be scheduling D-II opponents ever, unless it's exhibition and we play at their house.
I understand that RPI, SOS, quadrant wins and other factors are much more significant than won/loss record in determining who gets into the NIT and there is no longer a requirement that the team be better than 500 to get in. Having said that, won-loss record must at least be used as a point of reference and there are many posters who, like me are speculating we'd at least need to be .500 to have any chance to get in. Right now, we are 15-15 with the win against Molloy 14-15, without it. So if we were to beat Providence and win 1 game in BE tourney, would NIT committee look at us as 17-16 or 16-16? Maybe I am being dense and it is really irrelevant for purposes of NIT selection.
LJSA, hope my question is also irrelevant because we win BE tourney, but just covering our bases.[/quote]
Here's a list of all the .500 at large teams to make the NIT (conference champs who lose their tourney get automatic bids) since it was reduced to 32 teams:
I'm pretty sure at the time of the Molloy game I said something about hoping it doesn't bite us in the ass. We shouldn't be scheduling D-II opponents ever, unless it's exhibition and we play at their house.
I understand that RPI, SOS, quadrant wins and other factors are much more significant than won/loss record in determining who gets into the NIT and there is no longer a requirement that the team be better than 500 to get in. Having said that, won-loss record must at least be used as a point of reference and there are many posters who, like me are speculating we'd at least need to be .500 to have any chance to get in. Right now, we are 15-15 with the win against Molloy 14-15, without it. So if we were to beat Providence and win 1 game in BE tourney, would NIT committee look at us as 17-16 or 16-16? Maybe I am being dense and it is really irrelevant for purposes of NIT selection.
LJSA, hope my question is also irrelevant because we win BE tourney, but just covering our bases.
[/quote]Here's a list of all the .500 at large teams to make the NIT (conference champs who lose their tourney get automatic bids) since it was reduced to 32 teams:
L J S A
Well-known member
Trying to calculate all the ways an unworthy team can unrealistically get into the NIT is feeling very Norm era-like. I was guilty of it then, trying not to do it now.
I don't want to kill anyone's dreams, but I'm 99.9 percent certain that we need to win BET if we want to see the team play after the Providence game.
I don't want to kill anyone's dreams, but I'm 99.9 percent certain that we need to win BET if we want to see the team play after the Providence game.
Here's a list of all the .500 at large teams to make the NIT (conference champs who lose their tourney get automatic bids) since it was reduced to 32 teams:
Thanks, Austour. I really don't like our chances with a .500 record. I was just trying to understand what our record is from the NIT perspective, given the Molloy game. If it is 14-15, I'd expect us to have to win tomorrow and take two BE games to finish 17-16 to have more than a very small chance to get in. While there were no 16 loss teams in last year, noted that Georgia Tech got in at 17-15 and given our SOS and wins against likely No. 1 and No. 2 NCAA seeds (and being a local NY team), I'd like our chances in that case.
Thanks, Austour. I really don't like our chances with a .500 record. I was just trying to understand what our record is from the NIT perspective, given the Molloy game. If it is 14-15, I'd expect us to have to win tomorrow and take two BE games to finish 17-16 to have more than a very small chance to get in. While there were no 16 loss teams in last year, noted that Georgia Tech got in at 17-15 and given our SOS and wins against likely No. 1 and No. 2 NCAA seeds (and being a local NY team), I'd like our chances in that case.
[quote="NCJohnnie" post=274571]Here's a list of all the .500 at large teams to make the NIT (conference champs who lose their tourney get automatic bids) since it was reduced to 32 teams:
Thanks, Austour. I really don't like our chances with a .500 record. I was just trying to understand what our record is from the NIT perspective, given the Molloy game. If it is 14-15, I'd expect us to have to win tomorrow and take two BE games to finish 17-16 to have more than a very small chance to get in. While there were no 16 loss teams in last year, noted that Georgia Tech got in at 17-15 and given our SOS and wins against likely No. 1 and No. 2 NCAA seeds (and being a local NY team), I'd like our chances in that case.[/quote]
Ga Tech was a very fair comparison. They even had a D2 win among those 17 last year. They also had 3 top 15 wins, 2 top 10. They had an RPI right around 80 as well. As a 6 seed last year they must have also been on the bubble. Valpo was the only 7 seed be an at large bid.
The team has to get to at least 2 wins over .500 to be considered which means going at least 3-1 from here on out. If they lose tomorrow they probably need to get to the BET final and still sweat it out. So like someone said earlier they might as well just win it all.
Thanks, Austour. I really don't like our chances with a .500 record. I was just trying to understand what our record is from the NIT perspective, given the Molloy game. If it is 14-15, I'd expect us to have to win tomorrow and take two BE games to finish 17-16 to have more than a very small chance to get in. While there were no 16 loss teams in last year, noted that Georgia Tech got in at 17-15 and given our SOS and wins against likely No. 1 and No. 2 NCAA seeds (and being a local NY team), I'd like our chances in that case.[/quote]
Ga Tech was a very fair comparison. They even had a D2 win among those 17 last year. They also had 3 top 15 wins, 2 top 10. They had an RPI right around 80 as well. As a 6 seed last year they must have also been on the bubble. Valpo was the only 7 seed be an at large bid.
The team has to get to at least 2 wins over .500 to be considered which means going at least 3-1 from here on out. If they lose tomorrow they probably need to get to the BET final and still sweat it out. So like someone said earlier they might as well just win it all.
[quote="L J S A" post=274567]Trying to calculate all the ways an unworthy team can unrealistically get into the NIT is feeling very Norm era-like. I was guilty of it then, trying not to do it now.
I don't want to kill anyone's dreams, but I'm 99.9 percent certain that we need to win BET if we want to see the team play after the Providence game.[/quote]
What? You think there's no chance we can make the NIT? I'm 99.9% sure you're wrong.
Never understand why people just look at the record and nothing else, but in this case our record could be 18-15 (DI) if we lost in the BE finals and beat Providence. Our RPI currently is #80 and typically teams with that RPI make it into the NIT. KenPom is #73. SOS is #6. All the metrics are positive.
If we won against Providence and then 3 more teams we'd be a LOTTTT closer to the NCAA bubble than the NIT bubble.
Don't see any logic behind why we shouldn't make the NIT with another couple wins. One win I think could do it, actually.
I don't want to kill anyone's dreams, but I'm 99.9 percent certain that we need to win BET if we want to see the team play after the Providence game.[/quote]
What? You think there's no chance we can make the NIT? I'm 99.9% sure you're wrong.
Never understand why people just look at the record and nothing else, but in this case our record could be 18-15 (DI) if we lost in the BE finals and beat Providence. Our RPI currently is #80 and typically teams with that RPI make it into the NIT. KenPom is #73. SOS is #6. All the metrics are positive.
If we won against Providence and then 3 more teams we'd be a LOTTTT closer to the NCAA bubble than the NIT bubble.
Don't see any logic behind why we shouldn't make the NIT with another couple wins. One win I think could do it, actually.
Class of 72
Active member
[quote="Adam" post=274600][quote="L J S A" post=274567]Trying to calculate all the ways an unworthy team can unrealistically get into the NIT is feeling very Norm era-like. I was guilty of it then, trying not to do it now.
I don't want to kill anyone's dreams, but I'm 99.9 percent certain that we need to win BET if we want to see the team play after the Providence game.[/quote]
What? You think there's no chance we can make the NIT? I'm 99.9% sure you're wrong.
Never understand why people just look at the record and nothing else, but in this case our record could be 18-15 (DI) if we lost in the BE finals and beat Providence. Our RPI currently is #80 and typically teams with that RPI make it into the NIT. KenPom is #73. SOS is #6. All the metrics are positive.
If we won against Providence and then 3 more teams we'd be a LOTTTT closer to the NCAA bubble than the NIT bubble.
Don't see any logic behind why we shouldn't make the NIT with another couple wins. One win I think could do it, actually.[/quote]
Would need 2 more wins for the NIT for 17-16 record but with Ponds injury and the possibility he may not be 100 % make that goal more difficult but not impossible.
I don't want to kill anyone's dreams, but I'm 99.9 percent certain that we need to win BET if we want to see the team play after the Providence game.[/quote]
What? You think there's no chance we can make the NIT? I'm 99.9% sure you're wrong.
Never understand why people just look at the record and nothing else, but in this case our record could be 18-15 (DI) if we lost in the BE finals and beat Providence. Our RPI currently is #80 and typically teams with that RPI make it into the NIT. KenPom is #73. SOS is #6. All the metrics are positive.
If we won against Providence and then 3 more teams we'd be a LOTTTT closer to the NCAA bubble than the NIT bubble.
Don't see any logic behind why we shouldn't make the NIT with another couple wins. One win I think could do it, actually.[/quote]
Would need 2 more wins for the NIT for 17-16 record but with Ponds injury and the possibility he may not be 100 % make that goal more difficult but not impossible.