NET Rankings 2021-22

ADORAZ

ADORAZ

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https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/22483

#108, right around where I thought we'd be. Let's get the bad out of the way immediately: this is a mediocre ranking and it's on both the team for not blowing out the teams we were supposed to, and also on CMA for scheduling so poorly. We have the same record as Villanova, but they are over 100 spots ahead of us. A lot of emphasis is placed on beating teams AWAY from home (either true away games or neutral). St. John's not playing neutral games at a tournament site this year really hurt our NET, along with scheduling far too many cupcakes.

Another failure is that we were in underdogs in the only two games we've played that actually mattered (and it was obvious prior to the start of the season that'd be the case). That means we needed an upset or two, along with winning the rest of our games, for the schedule to work. There were no games that we were slight favorites. Either we were underdogs or major favorites. That's an awful way of scheduling.

Once again we have a lot of work to do, but there is some good news with the first NET rankings...

Big East:
#5 Villanova
#13 UConn
#21 Seton Hall
#30 Xavier
#37 Providence
#78 Marquette
#89 Creighton
#94 DePaul
#108 St. John's
#197 Butler
#247 Georgetown

The Big East as a whole is pretty strong. As of today 4 of our home games would qualify for Q1. 

Our remaining OOC:
#41 Monmouth
#146 Colgate
#256 Pittsburgh

The Monmouth game is now HUGE and currently Q2. Win that and at least we'd be top 100. Win both games this week and our NET I think would improve to around #80, which is FAR more manageable heading into Big East play.

Personally, I think if we win our final 3 OOC games and go 10-10 during the Big East we would make the Tournament (but just barely... definitely not comfortably in and could also miss it). Much easier said than done, but with Monmouth playing better than expected and the Big East doing pretty well we could definitely still make it if we're good enough.

First things first: beat Monmouth.
 
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Adam post=445652 said:
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/22483

#108, right around where I thought we'd be. Let's get the bad out of the way immediately: this is a mediocre ranking and it's on both the team for not blowing out the teams we were supposed to, and also on CMA for scheduling so poorly. We have the same record as Villanova, but they are over 100 spots ahead of us. A lot of emphasis is placed on beating teams AWAY from home (either true away games or neutral). St. John's not playing neutral games at a tournament site this year really hurt our NET, along with scheduling far too many cupcakes.

Another failure is that we were in underdogs in the only two games we've played that actually mattered (and it was obvious prior to the start of the season that'd be the case). That means we needed an upset or two, along with winning the rest of our games, for the schedule to work. There were no games that we were slight favorites. Either we were underdogs or major favorites. That's an awful way of scheduling.

Once again we have a lot of work to do, but there is some good news with the first NET rankings...

Big East:
#5 Villanova
#13 UConn
#21 Seton Hall
#30 Xavier
#37 Providence
#78 Marquette
#89 Creighton
#94 DePaul
#108 St. John's
#197 Butler
#247 Georgetown

The Big East as a whole is pretty strong. As of today 4 of our home games would qualify for Q1. 

Our remaining OOC:
#41 Monmouth
#146 Colgate
#256 Pittsburgh

The Monmouth game is now HUGE and currently Q2. Win that and at least we'll be top 100. Win both games this week and our NET I think would improve to around #80, which is FAR more manageable heading into Big East play.

Personally, I think if we win our final 3 OOC games and go 10-10 during the Big East we would make the Tournament (but just barely... definitely not comfortably in and could also miss it). Much easier said than done, but with Monmouth playing better than expected and the Big East doing pretty well we could definitely still make it if we're good enough.

Beat Monmouth and go from there.
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Great stuff.

Beating Monmouth is important as is the rest of our ooc games. But is there any chance they will stay top 75 even with a great year in the MAAC? Worse than that and it doesn’t do much for us when all is said and done.
 
Amaseinyourface: that's a good point, I do expect them to drop, but I think there's a pretty good chance they'll at least stay top 75 and remain Q2. Also an outside chance they could move up to Q1, though of course that's pretty unlikely. Worst case scenario they'd be Q3, which is still better than most of our Q4 OOC games haha.

The last couple years we've seen several mid-majors high in the rankings like this in December and then stay top 50ish for the remainder of the year. There aren't many abnormal outliers at this point (which is why they wait until December to release NET). Monmouth has legitimately played well enough to get the ranking they have, so ultimately I do believe they'll finish as Q2.
 
Dang.  I thought Colgate would be a nice win for us but Colgate has already lost to: Cornell, Harvard, Niagara and Northeastern.  

Beating Colgate is not going to help us much.  Doesnt look like this is the Colgate team from last year.
 
Monmouth beat Cincy at Cincy and St. Joe's at St. Joes and also play at Pitt and at Yale before starting conference play. Iona would appear to be their only legit rival for a spot in the dance. 
 
Indiana is #56 so other than this being home beating Monmouth is a good win by NET standards. Also reviewed the teams that our former players transferred to and those are some pretty low rated programs.

Also Fordham was our best win at #170.
 
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Adam post=445652 said:
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/22483

#108, right around where I thought we'd be. Let's get the bad out of the way immediately: this is a mediocre ranking and it's on both the team for not blowing out the teams we were supposed to, and also on CMA for scheduling so poorly. We have the same record as Villanova, but they are over 100 spots ahead of us. A lot of emphasis is placed on beating teams AWAY from home (either true away games or neutral). St. John's not playing neutral games at a tournament site this year really hurt our NET, along with scheduling far too many cupcakes.

Another failure is that we were in underdogs in the only two games we've played that actually mattered (and it was obvious prior to the start of the season that'd be the case). That means we needed an upset or two, along with winning the rest of our games, for the schedule to work. There were no games that we were slight favorites. Either we were underdogs or major favorites. That's an awful way of scheduling.

Once again we have a lot of work to do, but there is some good news with the first NET rankings...

Big East:
#5 Villanova
#13 UConn
#21 Seton Hall
#30 Xavier
#37 Providence
#78 Marquette
#89 Creighton
#94 DePaul
#108 St. John's
#197 Butler
#247 Georgetown

The Big East as a whole is pretty strong. As of today 4 of our home games would qualify for Q1. 

Our remaining OOC:
#41 Monmouth
#146 Colgate
#256 Pittsburgh

The Monmouth game is now HUGE and currently Q2. Win that and at least we'd be top 100. Win both games this week and our NET I think would improve to around #80, which is FAR more manageable heading into Big East play.

Personally, I think if we win our final 3 OOC games and go 10-10 during the Big East we would make the Tournament (but just barely... definitely not comfortably in and could also miss it). Much easier said than done, but with Monmouth playing better than expected and the Big East doing pretty well we could definitely still make it if we're good enough.

First things first: beat Monmouth.

Like always great analysis.
 
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Duke of Earlington post=445677 said:
Dang.  I thought Colgate would be a nice win for us but Colgate has already lost to: Cornell, Harvard, Niagara and Northeastern.  

Beating Colgate is not going to help us much.  Doesnt look like this is the Colgate team from last year.
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Syracuse is behind us at #117 despite beating Indiana at home (along with Ws over Arizona St and Florida St). The reason for that is because they lost to Colgate (and VCU/Auburn). A lot of teams have bad losses this year, which thus far we've avoided. If we manage to go 3-0 we'll be in fine shape heading into BE play. Not great shape like a lot of us hoped for, but the Big East will have opportunities for that. For now just need to get past these teams and worry about Q1 wins during Big East play.
 
Even though scoring margin is no longer a metric, I'm pretty sure the efficiency metric factors how teams play overall (on offense and defense). Meaning teams are still better off blowing out cupcakes (or any teams for that matter) rather than squeaking by them. And yes, road (or neutral) wins are huge.

Florida had pretty much the worst loss possible yesterday to Texas Southern at home, and it just happened to be when NET will be most volatile (earliest in the season). Florida dropped from 22 to 57, which is a big drop but not a HUGE drop. That loss is far worse than either of ours but Florida is still twice as many spots ahead of us in the rankings. I see a lot of St. John's fans on Twitter saying NET doesn't matter this early, which is partially true, but it absolutely does matter some. 25% of our season is already in the books, and that 25% is exactly what NET says it is... a poor ranking with zero wins of note. That said, things could be worse as we've avoided Q3/Q4 losses. It was huge that we didn't blow the game vs NJIT.

For the next few weeks St. John's I think will move up double digits when we beat a high ranking team at home (such as Monmouth) or a decent team on the road (the entire Big East outside of Butler and Georgetown). Again, lots of opportunities. It's inexcusable for a team with our expectations to have this poor a NET one month into the season, but it's absolutely reversible if we live up to our expectations (or come close to them) the rest of the way.
 
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Too early to use NET to evaluate teams.
 
Knight post=445807 said:
Too early to use NET to evaluate teams.
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No it isn't. 25% of the season is in the books and when you look at the rankings they do reflect how teams have played overall for the first quarter of the year. Purdue is #1... that's exactly where they deserve to be. The rest of the top 10 consists of LSU, Arizona, Houston, Villanova, Baylor, USC, Gonzaga, Wyoming and Duke. Wyoming is the only surprising top 10 (or top 23) team, but they are undefeated with several road wins against decent teams. Certainly a much better resume than ours.

It is of course too early to evaluate how teams will finish in March- there will be a lot of movement- but #106 is exactly where we belong at this point in time. As I've said, there is more than enough time and games to make up for our current ranking (75% of the season with more Q1/Q2 opportunities). If you'd rather wait until Selection Sunday when the final rankings will be out that's always an option, but there's no downplaying that this is where we are today. Let's change that starting on Thursday, the team absolutely has the chance to.
 
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The reason why a 6-2 St John's team has a NET ranking of 108 is because the average NET of our wins is 277.5. It's been said many times here before, but we need to really upgrade our non conference schedule every year, beginning in 2022-23.
 
Adam. Your points are well taken, and you've given us a good NET analysis of where we are, and where we need to be, albeit, NET this early is circumspect.

One quibble, has a BE team with a .500 record in conference ever qualified for the Dance? I would not feel confident at .500 and getting in, unless at .500 we are in the top 4 of the league. Games in the league this year are going to be hard fought, even DePaul, Georgetown and Butler.

I hope we finish at least a game or more over .500 in conference, because once we begin conference play, there is little chance to show the nation how good the BE is, since we will be in dogfights every night only against other BE teams.
 
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BrookJersey Redmen post=445851 said:
Adam. Your points are well taken, and you've given us a good NET analysis of where we are, and where we need to be, albeit, NET this early is circumspect.

One quibble, has a BE team with a .500 record in conference ever qualified for the Dance? I would not feel confident at .500 and getting in, unless at .500 we are in the top 4 of the league. Games in the league this year are going to be hard fought, even DePaul, Georgetown and Butler.

I hope we finish at least a game or more over .500 in conference, because once we begin conference play, there is little chance to show the nation how good the BE is, since we will be in dogfights every night only against other BE teams.

SJUs last tournament team was 8-10 in BE play. They went 12-0 in OOC but the OOC schedule was arguably weaker than the one this year.

Also since the new league was formed the league has averaged at least five NCAA teams per year with a high of seven. Other than last year with UCONN that was with only ten teams total. 
 
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Yes, we made the Dance at 8-10 in the Big East during Mullin's final year, but that's rare for a Big East team. We were the last team in. That team had a far better OOC than this year, though. We started 12-0 with an away win at Rutgers and neutral wins vs California, Georgia and VCU. It was an easy schedule, but we didn't lose (until the away game against Duke in February), and I believe our NET at the end of our 12-0 run was around #26. That OOC performance was far, far better than our current performance. We also picked up a lot of Q1 wins during conference play (5?), and the VCU win I believe was Q1.

I think 10-10 is possible to get in, but it really depends on who we beat. If for example we beat Villanova and UConn (the type of teams we beat the last time we made it) then that'd be a big help. If we beat teams like Georgetown and Butler 2X each and then mostly middle tier teams at home then we probably don't get in. A lot depends on how the Big East finishes, currently it's the 3rd or 4th best conference and will hopefully maintain that or improve during these final weeks.
 
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MarkRedman post=445847 said:
The reason why a 6-2 St John's team has a NET ranking of 108 is because the average NET of our wins is 277.5. It's been said many times here before, but we need to really upgrade our non conference schedule every year, beginning in 2022-23.
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I don’t think we even have a quad 3 win.
 
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Good points Adam..

Would be really helpful if we had a few road and home wins against the better BE teams vs. just a collection against the bottom half.
 
richard A Steinfeld post=445870 said:
MarkRedman post=445847 said:
The reason why a 6-2 St John's team has a NET ranking of 108 is because the average NET of our wins is 277.5. It's been said many times here before, but we need to really upgrade our non conference schedule every year, beginning in 2022-23.
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I don’t think we even have a quad 3 win.

 
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Currently we are 6-0 vs Q4 and 0-2 vs Q1.

3 of the teams we've beaten are amongst the 5 D1 teams without a win. Fordham is close to becoming Q3... but that's the only positive thing I can say about the teams we've beaten lol.
 
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