I think he will get overpaid because people are overrating his postseason. He has only pitched 14 innings in his three starts.
He was very good before being injured the last two years, and back issues are very worrisome long term.
The Mets are going to make the largest bid for Soto, and he and Boras can decide what to do. He may still pick the Yankees, but Cohen will not make it easy. While I think that is obvious, it will also take the longest to sort out.
But with pitching, Stearns likes the shorter term contracts like last offseason. Mets will probably go short term with larger annual salary.
Cohen is not going to give a rat’s tail about any luxury tax. He is going to strike while the iron is hot. I can see every FA talking to the Mets, even if it is to help them get a better deal elsewhere. And who knows, Cohen may sign Alonso.
This is going to be a crazy offseason.