I know it's almost a week ago now but just read through the D'Angelo FG% debate. Enjoyed it and wanted to chime in.
Dee is career 38.4% from the field, 34.2% from 3, 78.8% from the line. Hardly the type of efficiency you want from a 2, but far from team-crippling either. We'd all like to see those percentages go up, but that can be said for most everybody on this team last year save Jakarr, Dom, and CJ (all of whom do a lot of their work close to the rim).
The key analysis is the percentages relative to the role. It's not an apples to apples comparison, but Russell Westbrook is a volume shooter with an average FG% for his career (43%) and an atrocious 3P% (30%). Much gets made of how much he shoots at those percentages, especially with one of the best and most efficient scorers in the NBA on the same team.
The only person you never hear complain? Durant, who seems to genuinely enjoy playing with him to boot. He knows better than anybody that all the pressure Westbrook puts on the opposing defense with his hyper-attack style only makes his life easier. In many ways Westbrook's style of play - which comes with some inherent inefficiency - helps Durant's efficiency. You can't look at a player (and his percentages) in a vaccum and instead have to consider the overall team impact.
I know Westbrook does a lot of things D'Angelo doesn't or at least hasn't, which is why it's far from a perfect comparison. But D'Angelo plays a similar role for this team in that he has an incredible ability to put pressure on the defense with his style of play. Last year he was really the only guy that could do that for us from the perimeter, which resulted in (sometimes way) more bad shots than you'd like. With Jordan and a healthy Branch and Greene we should have more with that capability, which should take some of the burden off of Dee and help him become a more efficient scorer (by the @Georgetown game last year, it was beyond clear that every coach in the conference knew if you cut off Harrison SJU could not win, and our record after his suspension proved that a valid strategy).
But even with the increased options we need Harrison to play his game. Absolutely, I'd like to see him get up in the low 40%s overall and be more consistently in the mid 30%s from 3. But really that's nickel diming; we're talking about 3-5 made shots out of every 100. While that can make a difference, I believe it's worth the tradeoff to have a player who draws a lot of attention from opposing defenses and in doing so opens things up for others (not to mention getting near 20 or more himself most nights, which is no small bonus). We haven't had the personnel to fully take advantage of that, which has created a circular issue in that Harrison forces more. Now that we do I think it should result in a more controlled attack from Harrison (even if it still involves higher shot totals at average-ish percentages) and a more balanced attack from the team.
Sorry for the length, but I think the % issue gets overplayed when it's close. The difference between a PF shooting 35% and 50% can hurt you. A 2 going high 38% when you'd like him at 42-43% is less statistically significant in a 30 game college season. More important is the style of play, if that player is causing defenses to react, and if the shots are in-offense. I think that will be the important piece to watch with Dee this year, and if executed effectively could be a huge element in making this team go offensively this year (something clearly lacking last year).
SJU,
I appreciate your comments and much of what you says makes sense, but I disagree on some points. You make the argument that a 38% shooter as a two-guard isn't as important a PF having a poor shooting percentage. I would argue it a different way. I think D'Lo's 39% shooting - as a volume shooter, while it does take pressure off other guys, is still too painful for the team to bear, because he is a volume shooter. It doesn't matter if you are a PF, C or Guard - if you shoot a ton, you have to be efficient for your position. D'Lo, unfortunately was not.
It's one thing if D'Lo were a two-guard taking pressure off a team, not being a volume shooter, but the fact of the matter is that he is a volume shooter - a big one. He is shooting a ton. Otto Porter - a high NBA draft pick - only took 11 shots per game last year; McLemore on Kansas - only 11 shots a game. Curry on Duke - only 12 shots a game.... but D'lo took almost 15 shots a games. How does that makes sense with his shooting percentage? It doesn't make sense. (that's the coaches' fault, not D'Los)
Seth Curry shot 48%, McLemore shot 50% last year. They were shooters/guards on winning teams. If D'Lo shoots 39% vs. that 48% to 49%, that is a 10% difference on 14.6 shots per game = 1.46 more made baskets x 2.4 pts per shot for D'Lo = 2.7 points per game. That is a difference of 3 points per game. If our team team has 3 more points per game, we beat #15 Marquette last year, we beat Villanova and we take Providence to overtime last year. And we feel A LOT better about our overall year. That's a big difference from only one guy - yet, you say it is manageable (for lack of a better term). Well, I disagree - I argue it's REALLY important that our volume shooter be more efficient.
Mark my words, if D'lo is shooting is 39% this season, on 14.6 shots per game, we're toast. You can mail it in. No way we win as many games as we want.
Frankly, D'Lo is our best player, and I don't blame him for his lower shooting percentage. His low shooting percentage is not on him at all. It's on the coaches. I blame the coaches for not installing a better offense where he's not forced to take bad shots. It absolutely drove me nuts last year, when we passed the ball along the perimeter and did nothing with it and we had to force a shot up at the end of the clock. Do you think it was any surprise that Porter, McLemore and Curry all took four less shots a game than D'lo? They have better players / better systems surrounding those shooters. We seemingly did not have a offensive system at all (at least one that our kids could run). D'Lo has natural scoring ability - ala Dwight Hardy or Marcus Hatten, but the coaches have to make him more efficient.
This season, with our point guard play, + Sanchez and hopefully more efficient Sampson and Pointer and throw in a Hooper, it's all on the coaches to make the offense run be better. D'Lo's # of shots taken should come down by about four shots a game to the 11 per range - and he should be able to score around 15 to 16 pts a game with a higher FG%. The scoring efficiency must go way up from our volume shooter. There is no way around it. Again, it's not D'Lo's fault - it's on the coaches.