Champ

lawmanfan

lawmanfan

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I am perplexed about Champ's struggles this year.  I think I can rule out a couple of obvious theories, but that still leaves me without an answer.  I wonder if anyone else has an answer or at least a workable theory besides the only one I can come up with.

Theory 1:  "It's the offense, we need to run things for him."  For a few reasons, that doesn't work for me.  First, it's the same offense as last year.  Second, if anything we run more things for him (mostly going to the basket or for elbow jumpers than 3s) that we did last year.  It isn't as though we spent all of last year running him off screens and then ditched that this year.  So I don't think "the offense doesn't work for him" is the answer.

Theory 2: "Other teams are focused on locking him down."  And last year they weren't?  He was about the leading scorer in the conference last year, I don't think he's getting much more defensive attention this year than he did last year.  Theory 2A:  "He had more help last year."  Maybe Williams, Earlington and Cole required other teams to defend the perimeter more than Mathis, Wheeler, Smith and Wusu.  But not enough to cause this kind of drop off, or the fact that a lot of shots just aren't close.

Theory 3:  "It's mental/physical."  That's all I can come up with.  Wonder if anyone has any better ideas.
 
I don't think I have any better idea than you.  However, I am leaning toward #3.  While teams are definitely more focused on him, he has still had his share of good looks.  It seems shots that have routinely fallen are way off.  My guess is it's between the ears.  I also think he will work out of it soon.  Just my opinion.
 
I think he has to work harder at getting open on offense.   I think coach can help him by running some plays for him, but he also has to be in motion, flash to an open spot on the floor more, and be a little more aggressive in asserting himself, without forcing shots.

What we've seen over 2.5 seasons is real.  He's just got to work himself out of this.
 
JohnnyFan post=454012 said:
I don't think I have any better idea than you.  However, I am leaning toward #3.  While teams are definitely more focused on him, he has still had his share of good looks.  It seems shots that have routinely fallen are way off.  My guess is it's between the ears.  I also think he will work out of it soon.  Just my opinion.
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This is what I've observed as well. He's had some clean looks, and certainly the same type of looks he's routinely hit from in the past couple of years. It's not like he's forcing difficult shots every single time. It's just been a bit jarring how off he's been with the same type of shots he's hit last season.

While I agree that teams are maybe more focused on defending him, it's not like he's getting double teamed when he touches the ball.
 
I agree with JohnnyFan that it appears to be #3. He is missing shots he routinely made and sometimes missing them badly; clearly gotten in his head. I also think he just needs one good game to break out and regain his confidence; here's hoping tomorrow night he gets that with some good home cooking. 
 
Unfortunately his poor conference shooting goes back to the end of last season. In the last four games he shot 5 for 27 from and 23 for 63 overall. The last five games this year are 4 for 23 from 3 and 25 for 77 overall. He is a streak shooter who can get hot and have huge games like he did against Indiana, Kansas and UCONN but overall he is performing about the same this year as last year. I think we were hoping for better. Hopefully he will got hot again starting Tuesday but his confidence is down right now. We should set more screens for him but I would like to see him work harder to get open as well. 
 
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My vote is mental. His FT numbers are an indication. He was 86% FT shooter last yr to 73% this year. Thru Jan 24 last yr and this yr, basically similar attempts (63 to 60). You need to see that ball go thru the basket to give yourself a bit more confidence. It's just not there.  His blocks, rebounds, and steals are basically the same as last yr. So he is engaged on defensive end, but Just feel like there is a mental block on the offensive end. 
 
Not only related to Champs but is it possible our free throw shooting was better last year because there weren't any fans. This doesn't seem to be a theme for other teams but who knows what can go through your head.
 
BE teams are face guarding him with smaller more physical players.  He can't drive around them because he's not as quick as they are.  He can't get off his dribble jab step jumper because he either doesn't get the ball in a good spot or they are right up on him.  When he does manage to get a shot it's often hurried and not in the flow of the game.

I think it's a confidence thing plus we are clueless in the halfcourt as far as running plays for him.  There is way to much standing around while one guy tries to dribble his way to the basket and gets smothered by the defense.
 
Very hot and cold because the team depends on him for, well, everything.

We've seen this from our best when they're virtually alone out there: Mullin for a time during his junior season, Sealy as a senior, Hatten as a senior. 

Let's not forget we had Isaih Moore who for a good stretch of games was killing it on the inside for us. He caught every pass and almost always threw down a dunk. He should have been the BE 6th man of the year last season. That opened up enough daylight for Julian and that's gone. 



 
 
My two cents; Perhaps

Absence of consistent perimeter complementary teammates.

Teams going w quickness defending him v size like Cale of SH getting in his face and taunting him btw.

Natural loss of confidence, he strikes me as a sensitive, easy going kid. Not saying he not competitive, but not an ”eye of tiger” type like Mullin, Artest, Sealys of world who could be ice cold, yet demand the ball and make shots at crucial times.

 
 
Champ's number are slightly off from last season, except for FT shooting. Last year he caught  everyone by surprise. This year opposing teams were ready for him from the start. I  still say that he had a much better supporting cast last season. We pushed the ball up the court with much more precision then this season. Our break, keyed by our D, was much more effective and resulted in many more easy baskets for Champ. This year it seems like he's more stagnant because we are not breaking as much and our offense sets leave a lot to be desired. Reality is, we may have seen Champ's ceiling last season, but I still say that he bounces back and has a run of very nice games for us. 
 
I think it could be that he was told to concentrate on certain things from his NBA Draft evaluation and that evaluation and his inability to improve those areas may be in his head.
The same thing happened to Ponds after he opted for NBA Draft and then returned to SJU for his Jr. year. His play went downhill as he made a ridiculous effort to get more assists.
I think these kids need to think twice about declaring for NBA draft, coming back to school and trying to adapt their game based on NBA evaluations.
 
In terms of Champ I looked at the other end, tarsal not mental...on a few misses vs. Nova his footwork seemed off.

In terms of the team, Duke and GWIII were offensive threats at different locations on the floor, pressuring defenses to not always be exactly where they expected Champ to be for outside shots.  His work off cuts and down low seems unchanged or improved.
 
Pros in the nba have month long shooting slumps. Sometimes more. A college season is so short, a ten game stretch seems like forever. IMO more likely than anything is it’s only a slump. 

But with that said I mentioned it after a few of his big games this year, the shots he made in those were shots he could just have easily missed. Let’s face it, as great at Champ is, he’s a jump shooter. And if you rely on tough perimeter jump shots for a large % of your looks, you’re going to have games and stretches like he’s currently having. 

Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be doing more to get him better looks, just that guys missing jump shots doesn’t surprise me. Unless it’s a white guy on a midmajor playing us. 
 
I am also perplexed by his performance of late as well  but I can tell you this his stock is dropping by the game and he better find the solution if he has any hope of being drafted in the first round! At this juncture I don’t see him going in the first round! He may be better served by coming back for another year but I seriously doubt he will do that!
 
this is exactly what the doctor ordered.... last game at the friendly confines of CA.... Julian dropped an all-time line... 34 and 16! 12-22 / 4-7 from 3.... and missing 4 FTs going 6-10. 

Absolutely stud performance. 

The crowd will be behind him - back home where he knows the air density for optimal release speed.... this is it. 

SJU going away- Julian with 30+
 
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Physical - I believe the wrist has been bothering him on and off as he regains strength and full motion.  I think that more than anything is why the foul shooting is off.

Mental - as his continues to struggle, his confidence is shaken.  On Saturday I saw hesitation sometimes.  One example was he hesitated on an open three from the corner that normally he would have gone right up with.  By the time he decided to shot, he was open anymore and missed.  I believe he did the same thing it the first half resulting in an air ball.
 
Brian3 post=454063 said:
this is exactly what the doctor ordered.... last game at the friendly confines of CA.... Julian dropped an all-time line... 34 and 16! 12-22 / 4-7 from 3.... and missing 4 FTs going 6-10. 

Absolutely stud performance. 

The crowd will be behind him - back home where he knows the air density for optimal release speed.... this is it. 

SJU going away- Julian with 30+
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Crazy as it sounds, I get the "air density" factor. What with me being a shooter and all. 
 
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