...Can we make the Tournament?

ADORAZ

ADORAZ

Well-known member
2023 $upporter
A few weeks ago I thought we wouldn't win more than 3 or 4 conference games this year. I was concerned about the direction of our program, not just for this year but future years. I thought there was virtually no chance any of us would even be thinking about the Tournament this year.

Clearly I was very, very wrong, and I'm thrilled to be wrong. Massive credit to CMA/staff and the team for proving me (and a lot of others) wrong.

These last 5 games have been incredible. It all started with a road win at #23 UConn (on Fox!) in their return to the Big East, and now we have knocked off #3 Villanova for our highest ranked on-campus win since 1966.

Now for my TOURNAMENT THOUGHTS:
That said, we are obviously no shoo-in for the Tournament. Our OOC resume is weak (but 6-1 is solid for an odd year), and although a .500 BE (6-6) record would have been enough to make the Tournament during the last few years, this year that isn’t certain. The Big East isn’t as strong as it was the past few years. I think we COULD still make the Tournament at 10-10, or 9-9, or 8-8 (who knows how many Big East games we’ll actually play), along with a win or 2 in the Big East Tournament. It all depends on who we beat.

Our resume (post the Nova win):
​12-7 (6-6 BE)
#68 NET (was #82 before the Nova win) 
2-4 Q1 (the 2 Q1 wins should be safe)
1​-2 Q2
5-1 Q3
4-0 Q4

I’m pretty confident we’ll be in a few brackets this week. Right side of the bubble. We’ll also be on the wrong side in some brackets.

A couple important bracket links (not updated yet to reflect tonight’s win):
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

Bracketville has us as #80 overall and the 12th team OUT, but that’s before the Villanova win.

TLDR: if we play anywhere near our current level for the remainder of the season, we will absolutely make the Tournament. That is much easier said than done, though. For now I’m just glad we’re playing meaningful basketball in February. Big congrats again to the team. This has been one of the most shocking turnarounds I have seen, and unlike the 2017-18 turnaround (which STARTED on this day 2/3/18 against #4 Duke after going 0-11 BE), we still have time to make the Dance.
 
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Sorry about the formatting, trying to edit now. 

Edit: ok, fixed. I'll be posting bubble results in this thread, along with bracketology. Will be a fun day!
 
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Yes. I think it if it ended today we would earned a play-in game last night. We have a bunch of winnable games a a number of home games coming up with bodes well for us. .500 ball here on out has us in.
 
gman" post=416968 said:
Yes. I think it if it ended today we would earned a play-in game last night. We have a bunch of winnable games a a number of home games coming up with bodes well for us. .500 ball here on out has us in.
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I agree. Lunardi did say a few days ago that if we beat Nova we wouldn't be in his bracket, but I wonder if he was accounting for a double digit win and our NET improving from #82 to #68. Also, a lot of bubble teams have lost. I'd be very surprised if we aren't at a minimum First Four Out.

I also think other bracketologists will have us in a better position. Tough for other bubble teams to beat 2 Q1 wins and 0 Q4 losses at this point.
 
gman" post=416968 said:
Yes. I think it if it ended today we would earned a play-in game last night. We have a bunch of winnable games a a number of home games coming up with bodes well for us. .500 ball here on out has us in.


Have seen 4 BE teams projected to make T so don't think .500 does it might need at least 11-9 and couple wins in BET.
 
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bamafan- that's correct that before tonight's games 4 teams were projected by many, however after tonight Seton Hall is likely in since they were First Four Out in a lot of brackets (along with Providence, who will now drop).

Yesterday it was only 4 teams, but most weeks this year it has been 5 and sometimes even 6. I think it's plausible we make the Tournament at .500 in the BE along with a BET win or 2.

A lot of brackets I believe will have either 5 (Seton Hall) or 6 (Seton Hall and St. John's) teams this week. We'll see. :)

Edit: Lunardi had 5 teams in before tonight (Seton Hall was Last Four In).
 
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Keep in kind the committee also looks at how you are playing lately. We look every bit an NCAA team over the last month. 
 
Can we, yes; but it doesn't depend on where we are on Feb. 4. We have put ourselves in a place where we now have it in our own hands and that's fantastic. As some shared on the post game thread, the body language of the team at the end of the game was quite impressive, no histrionics; that bodes well for the teams mindset and collective confidence. If they all keep in mind that it all starts with defense, and continues with shot selection, we will be fine. But the fact remains, we can win or lose every game left on our schedule, so we will know in a couple of weeks if we have really turned a corner or are just hot right now. Great win, and all the greater for the way we dominated on defense but it was still only one game. 
 
gman" post=416975 said:
Keep in kind the committee also looks at how you are playing lately. We look every bit an NCAA team over the last month. 


Solution:
mass calls by we posters to
1(800)Red Storm In

lol
such a satisfying win!
 
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Silly question

Does the opponents rankings matter  where it was on date we played them, or where it ends up by season end?
 
mjmaherjr" post=416979 said:
Beat Providence
 
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+10000000

We play another bubble team this weekend and need a W.  I'll start talking about the tourney if we do that. 

no reason to think we won't and I definitely agree that we are playing like a no doubt ncaa tourney team at the moment.  But gotta beat Providence first. 
 
Yep, no doubt about it that  St. John's is a lock for the NCAA Tournament if it continues to win games in the regular season and one or more games in the Big East tournament.
​​​
Last nights win over Villanova is of little meaning if St.John's loses its next 2 games at Providence and  Butler.

Discussion about the NCAA tournament at this point in the season is merely a distraction.  The St. John's team must remain focused on defeating Providence College at Providence College on Saturday at 3 pm.  I can't wait.



 
 
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Can?  Of course.   It's why I refused the "It's not a make or break game", with a loss last night woudn't break our season, but a win could make it.   Rather than 5-7 today and a more difficult path to a tourney bid, by climbing back to .500 we can put ourselves on the bubble by playing .500 ball the rest of the way, and secure a bid by going 5-3.

Anything is possible, including going 3-5 or worse.   Before the season, and even at 0-5 I held on to the thought that we'd win 7-9 games in conf.   7-13 would be a disappointment, 8-12 improvement over last season, 9-9 high water.    

We wake up today with a different perspective than when we woke up yesterday.   Now we have a real season, playing like all good teams do, with a chance to play in the tournament.

Having travelled to Charlotte, Dayton and Denver for the NCAA regionals (Moose, Dinkins, MJMaher, and a few others hear made at least one of those trips) when you walk towards the arena, and see the video boards that high NCAA championship signage and you see St. John's along with the Duke's, UNC's, Kansas', a reality sets in that you are playing for the national championship.

Just being in the hunt this season so late, when we didn't think that was possible at all after our start, is euphoric for a fan.

Rest assured, these are the same guys who got off so badly at 1-6.   Yea, they've improved a lot.  If it teaches us anything, it is to be patient with them.  They are a young team and incredibly fun to watch when they play like this.
 
Adam" post=416966 said:
A few weeks ago I thought we wouldn't win more than 3 or 4 conference games this year. I was concerned about the direction of our program, not just for this year but future years. I thought there was virtually no chance any of us would even be thinking about the Tournament this year.

Clearly I was very, very wrong, and I'm thrilled to be wrong. Massive credit to CMA/staff and the team for proving me (and a lot of others) wrong.

These last 5 games have been incredible. It all started with a road win at #23 UConn (on Fox!) in their return to the Big East, and now we have knocked off #3 Villanova for our highest ranked on-campus win since 1966.



Adam
nice to see your gracious comments  (as with others on "that" side of the ledger ) in regard to prior negative critiques of Coach Anderson and the direction of the program.
We posters all (or nearly all) love St. John's basketball and only want the program to be "relevant" once again after decades of lousy basketball, no continuity and poor direction. We are and express the caring in different ways.
From the beginning of this bright new era April 2019 I believed Mike Anderson fell into our laps out of synchronicity or the grace of the Gods. Mike Anderson as with AD Mike Cragg (and apparently our new President) are all winners and came to the Red Storm to win. That's all. Just win baby. Enhance all the sports programs which augment the overall quality of the Univerity etc.
Favorite theme of mine - small Catholic non football school can succeed -in big time basketball -  we can be in the conversation with the Gonzagas and Villanovas od the world.
I am confident that Coach Anderson did not lose sleep over the incesant critiques on this site of his suspect coaching and recruiting abilities.
Well that phase of his tenure seems to be over. Perhaps that signature victory last night put us in the next phase of our return to glory.
I sense Coach Anderson has a healthy chip on his shoulders to show Arkansas - and the world - that he still has the desire and guts to succeed in his profession. He has a chip to prove local doubters wrong that he can or cannot succeed in the Northeast and in the Big East. Even though his roots are not NYC.
He's embraced and already mastered the style of hard work, blue collar, tough-hearted and strong-minded charima needed to survice in NYC and vicinity. if you can make it here...

Our Coach has something to prove as does our AD and his Duke blood. As do our players and yes we fans.
Can only help with public persona and young HSs recruits who often gravitate to the current hot place to play in e.g. the Stoem warnings emanating out of Queens. 3 and 4 stars, whatever, are fine as this team proves. Posh and Julian are 5 star people on the court forget someone else's ratings floating our in theory. In thje real world and in Mike Anderson's system, they are just fine.

Our entire family - coaches,  staff, fans and players - are winners, are hungry, are determined. I think we'll stay that way. L's will come. Lost recruits will happen. Part of life. But we are St. Johns and we are New York's team. And we have good stuff happening ahead and already at hand.

Let the good times roll once again - it's been a while.
I am grateful for last night. Positive postings and all. A quantum leap back into the spotlight.
Blessings.

 
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Feels good to just be relevant and improving. Being in the conversation is tonic to the kids too. Can't predict much with transfer mania, but this year could be a nice springboard to a "make some noise" in Tourney year.
 
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Paultzman" post=417001 said:
Feels good to just be relevant and improving. Being in the conversation is tonic to the kids too. Can't predict much with transfer mania, but this year could be a nice springboard to a "make some noise" in Tourney year.

Absolutely
 
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This win is huge to have on our resume.

Right now, we are on the cusp of the tourney.  If we win Saturday, we will comfortabley be in the field of 64.
 
Duke of Earlington" post=417010 said:
This win is huge to have on our resume.

Right now, we are on the cusp of the tourney.  If we win Saturday, we will comfortabley be in the field of 64.
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Yeah, maybe but if we lose the next 3 games thereafter then we are out.

The smart thing is for St. John's to take each game at a time.  A loss at Providence lessens the importance of the victory over Villanova.

The reality is that these kids control their own destiny. 

Win.  Beat Providence College.

Make President Brian Shanley proud of his new school.
 
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Imho, 5-3 rest of the way (17-10 overall) gets us in for sure while 4-4 (16-11) puts us on the bubble and likely need a win or two in BT tourney. Given we have 5 home games left (none against Nova or Creighton) and Butler on the road, 5-3 is not unrealistic although certainly not easy and will require continuing our recent high level of play. A win against PC on the road Saturday would really set us up nicely.  
 
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