He won't be fired, because there's no one out there this school would hire who could do a better job.
It is what it is.
It's by no means time to start looking for a replacement. But I don't accept the premise that we're stuck with Lavin because we'll never find anyone who can do a better job. A big name isn't necessarily required. This isn't a decision where Roberts or Lavin are the only possibilities. There are other coaches who could get a few top 100 players to come here. Would they get as many as Lavin? I don't know. But he's not the only person in America who can recruit and talk articulately.
There are always replacements. One of my siblings and best friends' like to say such thing when we're talking about replacing coaches (not St. John's, but just in general).
They both like to say, "Who is out there?" My reply is 'there is always somebody out there.' We're generally talking about replacing of football coaches. I tell them, you have solid guys who are assistant coaches (in the professional and collegiate ranks) or up-and-coming head coaches at smaller schools (in the collegiate ranks). Like yourself, I told him that a big name isn't a requirement when it comes to replacing coaches.
You shouldn't settle because you feel you can't do any better. In our case, I'm willing to see this play out.
Maybe they should hire the Xavier coach to replace Lavin.