[quote="SJUFAN2" post=375039][quote="Making Plays" post=375018][quote="SJUFAN2" post=374989]Can't see how we would be a bubble team when we aren't anywhere near .500 in conference.
We need a 4 game win streak before anyone should even dream of bringing up the NCAA tournament as a possibility.[/quote]
There's no requirement of being .500 in conference play to make it into the tournament, it's not even one of the criteria's that the committee looks at. Strength of Schedule, margin of victory/loss, quality of wins, quality of losses these things are going to be the primary factors the committee looks at, which this is built into the new NET system.
Just look at the Big 10 for example. They have 12 teams right now that Joe Lunardi (the top bracketologist) predicts that will make make the tournament.
And here are some of the records of those teams predicted to make the tournament.
Ohio State 3-6 conference record, 13-7 overall
Michigan 3-6 conference record, 12-8 overall
Purdue 4-6 conference record, 11-10 overall
Minnesota 5-6 conference record, 11-10 overall
The NCAA committee has made it clear they reward teams that play good teams and a strong schedule. This is why St. John's is still considered a bubble team by many bracketologist because we play a brutal schedule in the Big East and we played quality teams like West Virginia and Arizona in the non-conference and won. The worst loss on our record is to Vermont, who is projected to win their conference and be in the NCAA tournament, so that loss isn't really going to be seen as a negative in the committee's eyes. As the Fox Sports bracketologist said the other night, St. John's really just needs to win their home games and probably 1 Big East tournament game and that's probably enough to put them on the right side of the bubble.[/quote]
You are right, there is no requirement for being .500 in conference to get into the NCAA tournament. Still, its a pretty accurate benchmark for the power conferences when it comes to an at large bid. You need to be within a game or two of .500 in conference to be on the bubble.
We are still a 4 game win streak away from being in that discussion.[/quote]
That may have been true in the past, but things are different now with the NET and over the years the committee has adjusted things like making every game equally important and not giving credit for doing better in later part of the schedule . It's also different now that some conferences have moved to a 20 game schedule, eliminating 2 "cupcake" games from their schedule. I guarantee you there will be at least a couple teams in the Big 10 that will be 3 or 4 games under .500 in conference that will make a tournament. Conference record is completely irrelevant... you can be 5 games under .500 if your conference is really good, you avoid bad losses, and you played a tough non-conference and won all your games there. The committee looks at the ENTIRE body of work.
As far as St. John's, Decourcy knows what he is talking about. St. John's could realistically finish 7-11 in conference, win a game in the Big East tournament and make the tournament. That's assuming most of the teams stay about where they are at in the NET, and all the Q1 wins stay Q1 wins.
And looking at last year for example... They made the tournament going 8-10 in conference. Let's say the week they lost to #2 Duke, and beat #10 Marquette, you swap those games. And they end up 7-11 in conference they still make the tournament, and with the win over Duke gives them a better seeding probably helps them avoid the play in game. And that would be them making the tournament at 7-11 in a Big East that wasn't nearly as strong in the NET as it this year.
