8-10 with a BE Tournament win *possibly* enough?

if we are currently the last team in or the second to last team in (according to the experts) and we go 3-4 the rest of the way we will not get in. our RPI will not rise if we have a losing record the final 7 games
 
if we are currently the last team in or the second to last team in (according to the experts) and we go 3-4 the rest of the way we will not get in. our RPI will not rise if we have a losing record the final 7 games
Click to expand...

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/st-johns-red-storm/bracketology

It's about RPI.
I'll go slowly for you.
3 wins and they are close to in, 4 they are in.
If 1 of the 3 are nova , @ g'town or @ X, they're in.
It's not how many, it's who.
 
Tom is dead on. The whole notion that you cant get in with a losing conference record, or going one and out in your conference tourney, is a bit outdated. Those are factors but the RPI is most determinative.
 
if we are currently the last team in or the second to last team in (according to the experts) and we go 3-4 the rest of the way we will not get in. our RPI will not rise if we have a losing record the final 7 games
Click to expand...

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/st-johns-red-storm/bracketology

It's about RPI.
I'll go slowly for you.
3 wins and they are close to in, 4 they are in.
If 1 of the 3 are nova , @ g'town or @ X, they're in.
It's not how many, it's who.
Click to expand...

And now i will go slowly for you:

3 wins puts the RPI at 54 if they beat Seton Hall, Marq and Xavier home. Winning 3 one being at Nova but losing a different game like Xavier at home makes the RPI worse at 55 if you use the rpiforecast wizard:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/St. John's.html

4 wins (hypothetically we can say the home games and Marquette) puts SJU at RPI 43, which still isnt in - it will be right on the bubble and can go either way depending on the BET performance.

10-8 (5 wins) and they are a lock regardless of what happens in the Garden in March
 
As of today Lunardi has StJohn's in the NCAA.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/189

It is obviously better to be projected to be one of the last 4 teams in the Tourney than be projected out.

The best StJohns can do is focus on one game at a time to protect its position since it cannot control what other teams do.

My guess is that the StJohn's season unwinds as follows:
Xavier: loss
Georgetown: loss
Seton Hall: win
Xavier: win
Georgetown: win
Marquette: win
Villanova: loss

Regular season Record: 19-12
Big East Record: 8-10
 
As of today Lunardi has StJohn's in the NCAA.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/189

It is obviously better to be projected to be one of the last 4 teams in the Tourney than be projected out.

The best StJohns can do is focus on one game at a time to protect its position since it cannot control what other teams do.

My guess is that the StJohn's season unwinds as follows:
Xavier: loss
Georgetown: loss
Seton Hall: win
Xavier: win
Georgetown: win
Marquette: win
Villanova: loss

Regular season Record: 19-12
Big East Record: 8-10
Click to expand...

Is your math correct?
We are currently 5-6.
4 more wins gets us to 9-9
 
Tom is dead on. The whole notion that you cant get in with a losing conference record, or going one and out in your conference tourney, is a bit outdated. Those are factors but the RPI is most determinative.
Click to expand...

Can you give a review of the last couple of tournaments, and cite those programs who were given at large bids that had losing records in conference? You seem to be knowledgeable and stating from a point of reference, so please help us out here.
 
Tom is dead on. The whole notion that you cant get in with a losing conference record, or going one and out in your conference tourney, is a bit outdated. Those are factors but the RPI is most determinative.
Click to expand...

Can you give a review of the last couple of tournaments, and cite those programs who were given at large bids that had losing records in conference? You seem to be knowledgeable and stating from a point of reference, so please help us out here.
Click to expand...

2012 Connecticut (Jim Calhoun) 20-13 Big East 8-10 9th
2010 Georgia Tech (Paul Hewitt) 22-12 ACC 7-9 7th
2009 Arizona (Russ Pennell) 19-13 Pac-10 8-10 Tied 6th
2009 Maryland (Gary Williams) 20-13 ACC 7-9 Tied 7th
2008 Arizona (Kevin O’Neill) 19-14 Pac-10 8-10 7th
2007 Arkansas (Stan Heath) 21-13 SEC 7-9 Tied 3rd
2005 North Carolina St. (Herb Sendek) 19-13 ACC 7-9 Tied 6th
2005 Iowa (Steve Alford) 21-11 Big Ten 7-9 7th
2003 Alabama (Mark Gottfried) 17-11 SEC 7-9 4th
2001 Penn St. (Jerry Dunn) 19-11 Big Ten 7-9 Tied 6th
1999 Purdue (Gene Keady) 19-12 Big Ten 7-9 7th
1998 Florida St. (Steve Robinson) 17-13 ACC 6-10 Tied 6th
1998 Clemson (Rick Barnes) 18-13 ACC 7-9 Tied 4th
1997 Virginia (Jeff Jones) 18-12 ACC 7-9 6th
1996 Clemson (Rick Barnes) 18-10 ACC 7-9 6th
1995 Iowa St. (Tim Floyd) 22-10 Big Eight 6-8 5th
1992 Iowa St. (Johnny Orr) 20-12 Big Eight 5-9 Tied 6th
1992 Wake Forest (Dave Odom) 17-11 ACC 7-9 5th
1991 Villanova (Rollie Massimino) 16-14 Big East 7-9 Tied 7th
1991 Virginia (Jeff Jones) 21-11 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1991 Georgia Tech (Bobby Cremins) 16-12 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1994 Seton Hall (P.J. Carlesimo) 17-12 Big East 8-10 7th
1994 Wisconsin (Stu Jackson) 17-10 Big Ten 8-10 7th
1990 Virginia (Terry Holland) 19-11 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1990 Indiana (Bob Knight) 18-10 Big Ten 8-10 7th
1989 Providence (Rick Barnes) 18-10 Big East 7-9 Tied 5th
1988 Maryland (Bob Wade) 17-12 ACC 6-8 5th
1988 Iowa St. (Johnny Orr) 20-11 Big Eight 6-8 5th
1987 LSU (Dale Brown) 21-14 SEC 8-10 Tied 6th
1986 M aryland (Lefty Driesell) 18-13 ACC 6-8 6th
1985 Boston College (Gary Williams) 18-10 Big East 7-9 6th
1984 Virginia (Terry Holland) 17-11 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1983 Alabama (Wimp Sanderson) 20-11 SEC 8-10 Tied 8th
1960 USC (Forrest Twogood) 16-10 AAWU 5-7 3rd
 
Tom is dead on. The whole notion that you cant get in with a losing conference record, or going one and out in your conference tourney, is a bit outdated. Those are factors but the RPI is most determinative.
Click to expand...

Can you give a review of the last couple of tournaments, and cite those programs who were given at large bids that had losing records in conference? You seem to be knowledgeable and stating from a point of reference, so please help us out here.
Click to expand...

2012 Connecticut (Jim Calhoun) 20-13 Big East 8-10 9th
2010 Georgia Tech (Paul Hewitt) 22-12 ACC 7-9 7th
2009 Arizona (Russ Pennell) 19-13 Pac-10 8-10 Tied 6th
2009 Maryland (Gary Williams) 20-13 ACC 7-9 Tied 7th
2008 Arizona (Kevin O’Neill) 19-14 Pac-10 8-10 7th
2007 Arkansas (Stan Heath) 21-13 SEC 7-9 Tied 3rd
2005 North Carolina St. (Herb Sendek) 19-13 ACC 7-9 Tied 6th
2005 Iowa (Steve Alford) 21-11 Big Ten 7-9 7th
2003 Alabama (Mark Gottfried) 17-11 SEC 7-9 4th
2001 Penn St. (Jerry Dunn) 19-11 Big Ten 7-9 Tied 6th
1999 Purdue (Gene Keady) 19-12 Big Ten 7-9 7th
1998 Florida St. (Steve Robinson) 17-13 ACC 6-10 Tied 6th
1998 Clemson (Rick Barnes) 18-13 ACC 7-9 Tied 4th
1997 Virginia (Jeff Jones) 18-12 ACC 7-9 6th
1996 Clemson (Rick Barnes) 18-10 ACC 7-9 6th
1995 Iowa St. (Tim Floyd) 22-10 Big Eight 6-8 5th
1992 Iowa St. (Johnny Orr) 20-12 Big Eight 5-9 Tied 6th
1992 Wake Forest (Dave Odom) 17-11 ACC 7-9 5th
1991 Villanova (Rollie Massimino) 16-14 Big East 7-9 Tied 7th
1991 Virginia (Jeff Jones) 21-11 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1991 Georgia Tech (Bobby Cremins) 16-12 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1994 Seton Hall (P.J. Carlesimo) 17-12 Big East 8-10 7th
1994 Wisconsin (Stu Jackson) 17-10 Big Ten 8-10 7th
1990 Virginia (Terry Holland) 19-11 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1990 Indiana (Bob Knight) 18-10 Big Ten 8-10 7th
1989 Providence (Rick Barnes) 18-10 Big East 7-9 Tied 5th
1988 Maryland (Bob Wade) 17-12 ACC 6-8 5th
1988 Iowa St. (Johnny Orr) 20-11 Big Eight 6-8 5th
1987 LSU (Dale Brown) 21-14 SEC 8-10 Tied 6th
1986 M aryland (Lefty Driesell) 18-13 ACC 6-8 6th
1985 Boston College (Gary Williams) 18-10 Big East 7-9 6th
1984 Virginia (Terry Holland) 17-11 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1983 Alabama (Wimp Sanderson) 20-11 SEC 8-10 Tied 8th
1960 USC (Forrest Twogood) 16-10 AAWU 5-7 3rd
Click to expand...

Awesome..thank you. In 30 years, 5 Big east teams have gotten in with losing records.
 
I think 8-10 is unlikely but the oft pasted/linked list in this thread is out of date. Okie State also made the dance last year with an 8-10 record in conference and 20-11 record overall. They also had a few wins vs. teams ranked at the time like Memphis, Colorado and a late win over Kansas.
 
Tom is dead on. The whole notion that you cant get in with a losing conference record, or going one and out in your conference tourney, is a bit outdated. Those are factors but the RPI is most determinative.
Click to expand...

Can you give a review of the last couple of tournaments, and cite those programs who were given at large bids that had losing records in conference? You seem to be knowledgeable and stating from a point of reference, so please help us out here.
Click to expand...

2012 Connecticut (Jim Calhoun) 20-13 Big East 8-10 9th
2010 Georgia Tech (Paul Hewitt) 22-12 ACC 7-9 7th
2009 Arizona (Russ Pennell) 19-13 Pac-10 8-10 Tied 6th
2009 Maryland (Gary Williams) 20-13 ACC 7-9 Tied 7th
2008 Arizona (Kevin O’Neill) 19-14 Pac-10 8-10 7th
2007 Arkansas (Stan Heath) 21-13 SEC 7-9 Tied 3rd
2005 North Carolina St. (Herb Sendek) 19-13 ACC 7-9 Tied 6th
2005 Iowa (Steve Alford) 21-11 Big Ten 7-9 7th
2003 Alabama (Mark Gottfried) 17-11 SEC 7-9 4th
2001 Penn St. (Jerry Dunn) 19-11 Big Ten 7-9 Tied 6th
1999 Purdue (Gene Keady) 19-12 Big Ten 7-9 7th
1998 Florida St. (Steve Robinson) 17-13 ACC 6-10 Tied 6th
1998 Clemson (Rick Barnes) 18-13 ACC 7-9 Tied 4th
1997 Virginia (Jeff Jones) 18-12 ACC 7-9 6th
1996 Clemson (Rick Barnes) 18-10 ACC 7-9 6th
1995 Iowa St. (Tim Floyd) 22-10 Big Eight 6-8 5th
1992 Iowa St. (Johnny Orr) 20-12 Big Eight 5-9 Tied 6th
1992 Wake Forest (Dave Odom) 17-11 ACC 7-9 5th
1991 Villanova (Rollie Massimino) 16-14 Big East 7-9 Tied 7th
1991 Virginia (Jeff Jones) 21-11 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1991 Georgia Tech (Bobby Cremins) 16-12 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1994 Seton Hall (P.J. Carlesimo) 17-12 Big East 8-10 7th
1994 Wisconsin (Stu Jackson) 17-10 Big Ten 8-10 7th
1990 Virginia (Terry Holland) 19-11 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1990 Indiana (Bob Knight) 18-10 Big Ten 8-10 7th
1989 Providence (Rick Barnes) 18-10 Big East 7-9 Tied 5th
1988 Maryland (Bob Wade) 17-12 ACC 6-8 5th
1988 Iowa St. (Johnny Orr) 20-11 Big Eight 6-8 5th
1987 LSU (Dale Brown) 21-14 SEC 8-10 Tied 6th
1986 M aryland (Lefty Driesell) 18-13 ACC 6-8 6th
1985 Boston College (Gary Williams) 18-10 Big East 7-9 6th
1984 Virginia (Terry Holland) 17-11 ACC 6-8 Tied 5th
1983 Alabama (Wimp Sanderson) 20-11 SEC 8-10 Tied 8th
1960 USC (Forrest Twogood) 16-10 AAWU 5-7 3rd
Click to expand...

Awesome..thank you. In 30 years, 5 Big east teams have gotten in with losing records.
Click to expand...

.....and 14 from the old ACC! Now, the last out slots from the new Big East will go to the new ACC.
 
FYI - The media went through a mock selection using the same criteria as the committee and we are not in. Granted, it's not a snap shot of now, they project out the rest of the season.

URL]
 
FYI - The media went through a mock selection using the same criteria as the committee and we are not in. Granted, it's not a snap shot of now, they project out the rest of the season.

URL]
Click to expand...

This is so bad that it's not even worth getting into.
 
if we are currently the last team in or the second to last team in (according to the experts) and we go 3-4 the rest of the way we will not get in. our RPI will not rise if we have a losing record the final 7 games
Click to expand...

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/st-johns-red-storm/bracketology

It's about RPI.
I'll go slowly for you.
3 wins and they are close to in, 4 they are in.
If 1 of the 3 are nova , @ g'town or @ X, they're in.
It's not how many, it's who.
Click to expand...

And now i will go slowly for you:

3 wins puts the RPI at 54 if they beat Seton Hall, Marq and Xavier home. Winning 3 one being at Nova but losing a different game like Xavier at home makes the RPI worse at 55 if you use the rpiforecast wizard:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/St. John's.html

4 wins (hypothetically we can say the home games and Marquette) puts SJU at RPI 43, which still isnt in - it will be right on the bubble and can go either way depending on the BET performance.

10-8 (5 wins) and they are a lock regardless of what happens in the Garden in March
Click to expand...
I hear AB when the talk gets around to 10-8 but with the fancy chem kit cookin up whatever, the 8-10 I don't get. I don't mean to be stubborn.
 
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