8-10 with a BE Tournament win *possibly* enough?

we are currently 5-6, which means an 8-10 final record would put us at 3-4 over the final 7. I would assume the 3 wins would be:

- Seton Hall
- Xavier
- at Marquette

losses: @ Nova, GTown twice, at Xavier.

Our marquee wins for the committee would then be PC twice and Xavier which is hardly anything spectacular, especially with the amount of opportunities we have had this year to add a signature win to the resume. Also, against NCAA Tournament teams, our record would be 3-9 (3-7 vs Big East teams and 0-2 vs the Zags and Duke) and our "last 10" entering the BET would be 5-5.

If the schedule plays out this way our RPI would be right around 50, if not outside of it and to even say 50 or around 50 gets us in is nonsense.

So entering the Big East Tournament the "experts" would almost 100% have us listed in the "has a lot of work to do" category in order to get a bid - and depending on the side of the bracket we fall on, we may have to win the Big East Tournament then.

Also, many times the committee's mind is made up pre-conference Tourneys, as was the case last year - if you remember Providence was not getting in if they didnt win the thing.

And the five games that will haunt us will be Butler at home, GTown at home (hypothetical), Duke, at Creighton and at Depaul. A lot of squandered opportunity there....
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Best analysis of what we need to do that I've seen yet, rather than the simplistic statements about W-L record that have been posted. Four wins would mean an extra quality win. I do think, however, that three wins the rest of the way, combined with a run to the Big East semis would likely get us in. Getting to the finals would be good enough.
 
we are currently 5-6, which means an 8-10 final record would put us at 3-4 over the final 7. I would assume the 3 wins would be:

- Seton Hall
- Xavier
- at Marquette

losses: @ Nova, GTown twice, at Xavier.

Our marquee wins for the committee would then be PC twice and Xavier which is hardly anything spectacular, especially with the amount of opportunities we have had this year to add a signature win to the resume. Also, against NCAA Tournament teams, our record would be 3-9 (3-7 vs Big East teams and 0-2 vs the Zags and Duke) and our "last 10" entering the BET would be 5-5.

If the schedule plays out this way our RPI would be right around 50, if not outside of it and to even say 50 or around 50 gets us in is nonsense.

So entering the Big East Tournament the "experts" would almost 100% have us listed in the "has a lot of work to do" category in order to get a bid - and depending on the side of the bracket we fall on, we may have to win the Big East Tournament then.

Also, many times the committee's mind is made up pre-conference Tourneys, as was the case last year - if you remember Providence was not getting in if they didnt win the thing.

And the five games that will haunt us will be Butler at home, GTown at home (hypothetical), Duke, at Creighton and at Depaul. A lot of squandered opportunity there....
Click to expand...

Best analysis of what we need to do that I've seen yet, rather than the simplistic statements about W-L record that have been posted. Four wins would mean an extra quality win. I do think, however, that three wins the rest of the way, combined with a run to the Big East semis would likely get us in. Getting to the finals would be good enough.
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thanks.

i would really feel comfortable at 10-8 because that would probably mean that we beat the Hoyas home and split the X/GT road games giving us two more quality wins and a 5-7 record vs NCAA teams rather than 3-9.

I know you guys wanna lobby for a bid with an 8-10 record in the league but you can only put so much lipstick on the pig.....
 
Non-conference SOS is weighed heavily as well. That's the real reason SMU didn't get in last year. Their NC SOS was over 300 last year and were punished accordingly. St. John's is currently 55 which will help us more than hurt us.
 
we are currently 5-6, which means an 8-10 final record would put us at 3-4 over the final 7. I would assume the 3 wins would be:

- Seton Hall
- Xavier
- at Marquette

losses: @ Nova, GTown twice, at Xavier.

Our marquee wins for the committee would then be PC twice and Xavier which is hardly anything spectacular, especially with the amount of opportunities we have had this year to add a signature win to the resume. Also, against NCAA Tournament teams, our record would be 3-9 (3-7 vs Big East teams and 0-2 vs the Zags and Duke) and our "last 10" entering the BET would be 5-5.

If the schedule plays out this way our RPI would be right around 50, if not outside of it and to even say 50 or around 50 gets us in is nonsense.

So entering the Big East Tournament the "experts" would almost 100% have us listed in the "has a lot of work to do" category in order to get a bid - and depending on the side of the bracket we fall on, we may have to win the Big East Tournament then.

Also, many times the committee's mind is made up pre-conference Tourneys, as was the case last year - if you remember Providence was not getting in if they didnt win the thing.

And the five games that will haunt us will be Butler at home, GTown at home (hypothetical), Duke, at Creighton and at Depaul. A lot of squandered opportunity there....
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Probably best counter argument I've seen. As I stated in the OP, I would't feel safe at 8-10 so you could definitely be right. I'd still feel safe, regardless of our record, at an RPI of 48 or better but 8-10 with one BET win may not get us there.

I'll add that Syracuse and St. Mary's have 59 and 61 RPIs, and are close to that magical top 50. Currently 4 non-conference wins between 50-100. St. Mary's has a big game @ 62 BYU tonight.
 
I'm going with atleast 9-9 and atleast 1 win in the b.e. tourny which gives us 21wins.

I'm not into that on 8-10 with the rpi forecast crap.
If we can't go 9-9 at the very least in the conf then to me, we dont deserve to be in the ncaa tourny.
 
People are stuck in this old school mentality of looking at things like W/L as a defining factor. RPI and SOS is all you need to care about because it shows where we stand in real time versus the field.
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So if the preseason schedule comprised UK, DooK, Arizona, Virginia, Wisconsin, Kansas, NC, Louisville, and Baylor and that resulted in an 0 and 9 record that'd be better than the 11-1 cupcake record that resulted in a top 15 ranking? If so they should schedule more quality losses.
 
People are stuck in this old school mentality of looking at things like W/L as a defining factor. RPI and SOS is all you need to care about because it shows where we stand in real time versus the field.
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So if the preseason schedule comprised UK, DooK, Arizona, Virginia, Wisconsin, Kansas, NC, Louisville, and Baylor and that resulted in an 0 and 9 record that'd be better than the 11-1 cupcake record that resulted in a top 15 ranking? If so they should schedule more quality losses.
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The key is trying not to schedule those sub 200 RPI teams. It's hard to predict in advance but those losses will kill your resume. When scheduling the 2005-2006 season, the MVC conference got together and hammered out a non-conference schedule plan that would give them few opportunities for a bad losses and chances at some good wins. They sent 4 teams to that tournament that year. Teams and conferences have been finding ways to "trick" the RPI since.
 
I think 9-9 and possibly 8-10 gets us in the tourney if we win 1-2 BE tourney games. 7 out of 10 of the Big East Schools were at 1 time in the top 25. Our conference is extremely tough top to bottom and that will be reflected by the committee. Still it would be nice to get a few signature wins between now and the end of the year. GTown & X have strong RPI's. Beating those 2 at least once each and/or possibly Nova really helps our resume. We may have to sweat it out and it matters what the other bubble teams do but there is a chance.

The sad thing is we should not have to sweat it out. We could expect 1 dud a year so you can forgive the Creighton game or DePaul losses. The killer was the home Butler game that we should have 1 if we didn't have to deal with player malcontents. Also, the Duke game was ours for the taking. Those 2 games are why we are sweating it out.
 
Think I saw Jack mention this but 11-7 is the only way to be a lock. 10-8 to me is probably good enough.

9-9 and we will need 1-2 BE tourney wins to feel good.

8-10 requires a tourney title and with this thin of a roster albeit with new contributors, it'll be tough.

The one positive I see is that we took PC down after they ruined our season last year. Another team which destroyed our chances was Xavier towards the end of the regular season, hopefully we can give them the same treatment we have given to Cooley's guys.
 
Here's a list of teams that have finished sub-.500 in their conference and made the NCAA tournament.

Spoiler alert: it's short.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/atlarge
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People keep posting this but I mentioned it in the OP.

The reason it's short is because we're in a unique situation. We were top 15 out of conference then go up against the second toughest conference. How often do top 15 teams go on to have a losing conference record?
 
I'm going with atleast 9-9 and atleast 1 win in the b.e. tourny which gives us 21wins.

I'm not into that on 8-10 with the rpi forecast crap.
If we can't go 9-9 at the very least in the conf then to me, we dont deserve to be in the ncaa tourny.
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Well it's a good thing you aren't on the committee. The RPI is what the committee looks at, not conference record.
 
Here's a list of teams that have finished sub-.500 in their conference and made the NCAA tournament.

Spoiler alert: it's short.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/atlarge
Click to expand...

People keep posting this but I mentioned it in the OP.

The reason it's short is because we're in a unique situation. We were top 15 out of conference then go up against the second toughest conference. How often do top 15 teams go on to have a losing conference record?
Click to expand...

Didn't see that you linked that, apologies. But the top 15 ranking was based on our OOC schedule--at the time, Syracuse was thought to be a "marquee" win, which it wasn't. Heck, Creighton was ranked #23 at one point.
 
Think I saw Jack mention this but 11-7 is the only way to be a lock. 10-8 to me is probably good enough.

9-9 and we will need 1-2 BE tourney wins to feel good.

8-10 requires a tourney title and with this thin of a roster albeit with new contributors, it'll be tough.

The one positive I see is that we took PC down after they ruined our season last year. Another team which destroyed our chances was Xavier towards the end of the regular season, hopefully we can give them the same treatment we have given to Cooley's guys.
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11-7 is crazy talk and I don't think there's a bracketologist who would agree with that. I feel like some of these projections are based on last year rather than this.

As for your last point, I definitely agree.about Xavier. This year's team seems good at revenge... Syracuse, Providence, and DePaul and Creighton the second times, Xavier loss really hurt last year coming off that close loss at Nova.
 
Here's a list of teams that have finished sub-.500 in their conference and made the NCAA tournament.

Spoiler alert: it's short.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/atlarge
Click to expand...

People keep posting this but I mentioned it in the OP.

The reason it's short is because we're in a unique situation. We were top 15 out of conference then go up against the second toughest conference. How often do top 15 teams go on to have a losing conference record?
Click to expand...

Didn't see that you linked that, apologies. But the top 15 ranking was based on our OOC schedule--at the time, Syracuse was thought to be a "marquee" win, which it wasn't. Heck, Creighton was ranked #23 at one point.
Click to expand...

Fair, but ESPN has our non-conference RPI at 35 currently and 55 SOS which is pretty good, even with Syracuse falling off. We would've easily been in with just our OOC schedule. With that in mind, 8-10 against the second best conference isn't bad at all and could get a bid.
 
Here's a list of teams that have finished sub-.500 in their conference and made the NCAA tournament.

Spoiler alert: it's short.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/atlarge
Click to expand...

People keep posting this but I mentioned it in the OP.

The reason it's short is because we're in a unique situation. We were top 15 out of conference then go up against the second toughest conference. How often do top 15 teams go on to have a losing conference record?
Click to expand...

Didn't see that you linked that, apologies. But the top 15 ranking was based on our OOC schedule--at the time, Syracuse was thought to be a "marquee" win, which it wasn't. Heck, Creighton was ranked #23 at one point.
Click to expand...

Fair, but ESPN has our non-conference RPI at 35 currently and 55 SOS which is pretty good, even with Syracuse falling off. We would've easily been in with just our OOC schedule. With that in mind, 8-10 against the second best conference isn't bad at all and could get a bid.
Click to expand...

we need 9 wons at least plus a win in the BET
I will feel safer if we just win the BET lol
 
Need to beat Georgetown and Villanova to be any sort of confident on selection Sunday
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Georgetown most likely yes since we have 2 more games with them. Nova no. Really hope we get to 4 wins before the Nova game because I don't like our chances there.
 
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