8-10 with a BE Tournament win *possibly* enough?

ADORAZ

ADORAZ

Well-known member
2023 $upporter
Yes this sounds a bit crazy and I'm expecting a lot of people to disagree. I'm not saying with confidence this would get us in, but rather it would place us on the bubble and could possibly get us in.

As of today we are 5-6 in the BE. Despite being under .500 in the Big East ESPN has us with a 42 RPI (generally top 48/49/50 teams make it).

RPI Forecast currently has us at a 50 RPI (worse than ESPN, and I trust ESPN more). Playing around with RPI Wizard,....

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/St. John's.html

If we go 3-4 rest of the way and finish 8-10, we'd be on the wrong side of the bubble with an RPI around 54.(I had us beating SHU, Xavier, and Marquette and losing the rest). Now, I added in 2 *extra* games to represent the BE Tournament. Both are neutral games and I had us winning the first and losing the second. Depending on who we play, our RPI would be right around 50, plus or minus a few spots.

Now, what is especially interesting is RPI Wizard currently has us right on the bubble *DESPITE* being 8 spots off from ESPN (42 vs 50). Does this mean under the same scenario ESPN would have us in the low 40's?

Some people will bring up the losing conference record, though it isn't exactly unprecedented:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/atlarge

So, after all this would 8-10 with one tournament win be enough? I certainly wouldn't bet on it. However, the fact it is a possibility is interesting.

I do, however, think if we go 4-3 (9-9) with one BE Tournament win we'd be safely in, as our RPI would be about 40 according to RPI Wizard. I'd bet big bucks on that. Anything more than that and we would be in without any doubt at all.

Thoughts? Again, I know there will be a lot of people disagreeing, but bubble discussion is always fun and I'm big on statistics so I find it interesting. We are once again right on the bubble and finishing around 8-10 or 9-9 is not only possible but probably the most likely scenario.
 
I feel like we are beginning another one of the ole Lavin February win streaks...D'Lo is gettting back to prime form so I'm going to say we finish with 10 wins in BE and we won't even be sweating on selection sunday
 
I feel like we are beginning another one of the ole Lavin February win streaks...D'Lo is gettting back to prime form so I'm going to say we finish with 10 wins in BE and we won't even be sweating on selection sunday
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I think it's possible if we remain healthy, though we do have a very tough upcoming schedule. Would be awesome though to enjoy the BE Tournament without games being do or die.
 
8-10 in the Big East would be a failure.

Last year we were 21-10 (10-8 ) overall. If we go 5-2 over our last seven games, we will match that record, albeit we'd most likely have a much higher RPI and SOS than last season.

The team looks to have turned a corner here. Let's finish up the regular season strong and let the chips fall where they may.
 
8-10 in the Big East would be a failure.

Last year we were 21-10 (10-8 ) overall. If we go 5-2 over our last seven games, we will match that record, albeit we'd most likely have a much higher RPI and SOS than last season.

The team looks to have turned a corner here. Let's finish up the regular season strong and let the chips fall where they may.
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While I do like what I've seen from them, they beat two 120+ RPI teams at home. Our last 7 games have 5 games in the top 34 RPI. I think they can finish strong, but if CO doesn't get healthy I'll be far less optimistic.
 
If we finish 8-10 we will have to win the BET to get in
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Eh if we go 8-10 and win two BET then lose in the finals our RPI would be about 42 according to the site. Very rare for a team ranked that high to not get in. Xavier got in last year with a 48 RPI. Nebraska at 49 got in. Minnesota at 50 didn't get in. Last year there were no big surprises, besides SMU being omitted (they were actually RPI 53 so not really surprising). NC State even got in with a 54 RPI because they had some big wins..
 
8-10 is 7th place most likely. So one win in the BET over a bad Creighton team isn't going to get you anywhere. 9-9 would get sixth though, and a win over providence, maybe Georgetown, who knows, would probably do it. IMO we aren't safe unless we get the improbable 11-7 in conference. 10-8 we would have to win that 4/5 or 3/6 game to be safe.

Anything else we are gonna be sweating it out on selection Sunday. Just beat Xavier and things will start to look up
 
If we finish 8-10 we will have to win the BET to get in
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Eh if we go 8-10 and win two BET then lose in the finals our RPI would be about 42 according to the site. Very rare for a team ranked that high to not get in. Xavier got in last year with a 48 RPI. Nebraska at 49 got in. Minnesota at 50 didn't get in. Last year there were no big surprises, besides SMU being omitted (they were actually RPI 53 so not really surprising). NC State even got in with a 54 RPI because they had some big wins..
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8-10 puts us at 19-12.
2 BET wins put us at 21-13 IMO we would be on wrong side of the bubble as there would be a ton of 20 and 21 win teams and alot of conferences seem bunched up. Even though we have a solid RPI, we still don't have a win against a top 25 team and if we go 8-10 you are telling me we probably won't get one.
 
I think most people disagreeing are using record (either overall or Big East) as their main reasoning against us getting in. The thing is, every bubble team out there has issues with their resume. Whether it be lack of top 50 wins, bad losses, weak strength of schedule, etc. By definition, there is a problem.

Also, Nebraska got in last year at 19-12.
 
Even though we have a solid RPI, we still don't have a win against a top 25 team and if we go 8-10 you are telling me we probably won't get one.
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According to ESPN we have 2 top 25 wins. To get to the scenario the topic mentioned, we'd by default get at least 1 more top 50 win.
 
Even though we have a solid RPI, we still don't have a win against a top 25 team and if we go 8-10 you are telling me we probably won't get one.
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According to ESPN we have 2 top 25 wins. To get to the scenario the topic mentioned, we'd by default get at least 1 more top 50 win.
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Who did we beat that was in top 25?
Cuse wasn't and either was Prov either time we played them and those are our signature wins.

Listen the last thing I want to do is argue against us making tourney but 8-10 would put us most likely in 6th place in BE. I do not think they take 6 BE teams. Those days are over.
 
Even though we have a solid RPI, we still don't have a win against a top 25 team and if we go 8-10 you are telling me we probably won't get one.
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According to ESPN we have 2 top 25 wins. To get to the scenario the topic mentioned, we'd by default get at least 1 more top 50 win.
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Who did we beat that was in top 25?
Cuse wasn't and either was Prov either time we played them and those are our signature wins.

Listen the last thing I want to do is argue against us making tourney but 8-10 would put us most likely in 6th place in BE. I do not think they take 6 BE teams. Those days are over.
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Providence 2X, they are a top 25 team as of today and their ranking end of the year is what will be evaluated (as it has in the past). AP ranking means absolutely nothing, if it did SMU would've made it last year.

As for your last comment, Big East is the second best conference this year and the committee doesn't consider conference anyways in terms of number of bids.
 
Even though we have a solid RPI, we still don't have a win against a top 25 team and if we go 8-10 you are telling me we probably won't get one.
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According to ESPN we have 2 top 25 wins. To get to the scenario the topic mentioned, we'd by default get at least 1 more top 50 win.
Click to expand...

Who did we beat that was in top 25?
Cuse wasn't and either was Prov either time we played them and those are our signature wins.

Listen the last thing I want to do is argue against us making tourney but 8-10 would put us most likely in 6th place in BE. I do not think they take 6 BE teams. Those days are over.
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I agree 8-10 is not enough but I disagree when you say they won't take 6 BE teams
 
People are stuck in this old school mentality of looking at things like W/L as a defining factor. RPI and SOS is all you need to care about because it shows where we stand in real time versus the field. As noted, if our RPI ends under 50, no matter our W/L record, we should be in.
 
The crack committee going to have a easy time explaining why SJU gets left out at 8-10 if they even want to bother. Creighton, DePaul and the Hall end up bottom half of league and we lost to all of them. Butler a bad home loss because it was a home loss to a team not named Nova. A chance to make a statement vs. Duke or the Zags at home, didn't happen. 8-10 NO. I think 22 wins might be enough to overcome loses tourny teams can't really have. Be interesting to see if any major conference team loses 3 to the bottom half of the league and goes without a couple of wins vs. top 10 teams. We better roll vs. X-men, and not look back.
 
8-10 in the Big East would require a minimum of 2 wins in the BET, and that probably isn't even enough.
 
we are currently 5-6, which means an 8-10 final record would put us at 3-4 over the final 7. I would assume the 3 wins would be:

- Seton Hall
- Xavier
- at Marquette

losses: @ Nova, GTown twice, at Xavier.

Our marquee wins for the committee would then be PC twice and Xavier which is hardly anything spectacular, especially with the amount of opportunities we have had this year to add a signature win to the resume. Also, against NCAA Tournament teams, our record would be 3-9 (3-7 vs Big East teams and 0-2 vs the Zags and Duke) and our "last 10" entering the BET would be 5-5.

If the schedule plays out this way our RPI would be right around 50, if not outside of it and to even say 50 or around 50 gets us in is nonsense.

So entering the Big East Tournament the "experts" would almost 100% have us listed in the "has a lot of work to do" category in order to get a bid - and depending on the side of the bracket we fall on, we may have to win the Big East Tournament then.

Also, many times the committee's mind is made up pre-conference Tourneys, as was the case last year - if you remember Providence was not getting in if they didnt win the thing.

And the five games that will haunt us will be Butler at home, GTown at home (hypothetical), Duke, at Creighton and at Depaul. A lot of squandered opportunity there....
 
People are stuck in this old school mentality of looking at things like W/L as a defining factor. RPI and SOS is all you need to care about because it shows where we stand in real time versus the field. As noted, if our RPI ends under 50, no matter our W/L record, we should be in.
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RPI, SOS, W/L record against top 50, and bad losses are the things the committee looks at. We don't have any bad losses (and won't if Creighton and DePaul don't lose out) and we will have plenty of chances against top 50 teams.
 
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