2021-2022 Schedule

[otis]

How many returnees does Colgate have? That might be tougher game than it looks like on a screen shot.

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Colgate is not a cupcake.

ESPN projects Colgate to be a 13 seed in the 2022 NCAA Bracketology in its July 13, 2021 article.

Before anyone disses Colgate they should understand that that same ESPM article does not project the Red Storm to receive an invite to this years NCAA Tournament.

[URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2142[/URL]
 

 

[lawmanfan]

Also simply not true that most BE teams had the kind of turnover we did other than perhaps Creighton. We only have 3 guys returning from last year's team and that is not the norm by any stretch of the imagination.  
 

Off the top of my head Butler and Providence are pretty much bringing everyone back.  Think Xavier, Nova and UConn are largely intact though they each lost a big piece.  Marquette, DePaul, Creighton and Georgetown have a lot of turnover like us.  Lost sight of what happened with the Hall but I assume they're bringing back more players (though not more talent) than we are.

 

[Knockout-Ned]

I'm on the Colgate is a cupcake page.  Finished 14-2 and made the dance via conf tourney. First 13 games were played entirely against Army (12-10), Boston U (7-11) and Holy Cross (5-11).  Then one each vs Bucknell (5-7) and Loyola MD (6-11).  Then blown out in NCAA by Arkansas. High NET was a factor of partial season.

 

[fordham96]

The thing about a Colgate is it is a double edge sword.  They are the clear favorites in a weak league.  Which is not a bad opponent to schedule but at the same time their NET won't be great.

Bottom line is SJU not being in a top tier exempt tourney (Gotham Classic is the exempt tourney against Pitt) is what is hurting.  Butler is in Maui, say it was SJU not Butler.  They have chances of potential matchups with Wisconsin, Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Oregon and Houston.  And not just one of  teams.  That is what is missing.

knockout_ned post=437351
I'm on the Colgate is a cupcake page.  Finished 14-2 and made the dance via conf tourney. First 13 games were played entirely against Army (12-10), Boston U (7-11) and Holy Cross (5-11).  Then one each vs Bucknell (5-7) and Loyola MD (6-11).  Then blown out in NCAA by Arkansas. High NET was a factor of partial season.

 

[fordham96]

I mean UCONN is playing in Atlantis.  Field is LOADED.  Now I don't understand the argument that SJU should be good this year so I don't mind playing a softer schedule?  What? So UCONN after getting back to the NCAA Tourney for the first time in years last year and generally projected to be the 2nd best team after Nova in the BE is a sucker for playing in such a high level tourney? Or is that how a big time basketball program is supposed to act like?

Remember how well that worked out in Mullin's last year?  That 12-0 non-conference did not help much as they barely snuck in as the last team in the field.  And that is because the non-conference schedule that year was weak even though SJU was projected to have it's best team up to that point under Mullin.  

The last thing I will say is this is SJU.  Why would they ever shy away from a difficult schedule even if the team was projected to be bad.  No look I have harped on this enough.  I will just say going forward SJU needs to be in a top tier pre-season tourney just about every year.

Celebrating its tenth year of elite collegiate tournament play, the 2021 Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis will include Arizona State, Auburn, Loyola Chicago, Michigan State, Syracuse, Connecticut, Virginia Commonwealth, and Baylor. 

 

[weathermannyc]

I understand wanting to get a bunch of game in while you jell since we have a lot of turnover.  My issue is that we don't have much that will help us build a resume.  Selection Sunday is an exercise primarily in who you have beaten and then secondarily who you have played.  We should have another top 100 opponent at the back end of OOC schedule after finals are done.  If you are not ready to play an NC St level team on Dec 20th, then what makes you think that you can play something like @ Seton Hall 10 days later? The fact that we only potentially have one Tier 2 game on the schedule after Kansas and @ Indiana when you expect to compete for a bid is criminal.  BEST CASE scenario is this hurts us by a couple of seed lines after a big season.  WORST CASE...well see Robert Morris in 2014.

 

[L J S A]

The NCAA Selection Committee has shown in recent years that they will reward the teams that scheduled aggressively and punish the teams that did not challenge themselves.

That's if you are on the bubble. Win enough BEC games and we won't have to worry about it.

If we scheduled super tough and lost most of OoC schedule and went 17-13 heading into BET, committee might not reward us anyway.

I'm a firm believer in rewarding your local cupcakes, though. Rewarding ones from a 1,000 miles away does nothing for me.

 

[mm52]

Creighton, in its just released OOC schedule, has a chance of playing more than the 3 power 5 conf games we have; they will or could play Nebraska, Iowa State, Colorado, Arizona State, with a tough BYU looming too.

Tue.Nov. 9 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Thu.Nov. 11 Kennesaw State
Tue.Nov. 16 at Nebraska
Paradise Jam, Fri.Nov. 19 vs. Brown
Sat. or Sun.Nov. 20 or 21 vs. Bradley or Colorado State
Mon.Nov. 22 vs. TBD (Duquesne, Northeastern, Southern Illinois or Colorado)
Sat.Nov. 27SIU Edwardsville
Tue.Nov. 30 North Dakota State
Sat.Dec. 4 Iowa State!
Sat.Dec. 11vs. BYU
Tue.Dec. 14Arizona State
 

 

[fordham96]

What's enough though?  Remember they won 10 league games last year as did SHU and neither got in.  In fact neither were even in the next 4 OUT.

Saying win enough conference games is an argument for any year theoretically.  Play 12 cupcakes but go 20-0 in the BE and your fine.  Yeah I guess.

And the BE should be pretty good but keep in mind outside of Nova and UCONN almost no one has anyone inside the top 35.  So their is a huge dropoff.  Meaning being picked 3rd or 4th in the BE is not the same projection as say 3rd or 4th in the B12 or B10 or ACC.  Those teams in many cases are top 10 nationally maybe even Final Four caliber teams.

L J S A post=437356
That's if you are on the bubble. Win enough BEC games and we won't have to worry about it.

If we scheduled super tough and lost most of OoC schedule and went 17-13 heading into BET, committee might not reward us anyway.

I'm a firm believer in rewarding your local cupcakes, though. Rewarding ones from a 1,000 miles away does nothing for me.

 

[fordham96]

Remember people talked about what the difference was with Rutgers and SJU last year.  Not much maybe RU's win over Illinois was a bit better than SJU win over Nova.  But the ultimate difference was Rutgers beat Syracuse in a non-conference game.

UCONN beat USC in a non-conference game.

BIG difference from SJU's best non conference win which was probably Boston College.

 

[gman]

Creighton, in its just released OOC schedule, has a chance of playing more than the 3 power 5 conf games we have; they will or could play Nebraska, Iowa State, Colorado, Arizona State, with a tough BYU looming too.

Tue.Nov. 9 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Thu.Nov. 11 Kennesaw State
Tue.Nov. 16 at Nebraska
Paradise Jam, Fri.Nov. 19 vs. Brown
Sat. or Sun.Nov. 20 or 21 vs. Bradley or Colorado State
Mon.Nov. 22 vs. TBD (Duquesne, Northeastern, Southern Illinois or Colorado)
Sat.Nov. 27SIU Edwardsville
Tue.Nov. 30 North Dakota State
Sat.Dec. 4 Iowa State!
Sat.Dec. 11vs. BYU
Tue.Dec. 14Arizona State

 

7 win Nebraska and 2 win Iowa State? Two of the worst high-Majors out there 

 

[Mean Gene]

Remember people talked about what the difference was with Rutgers and SJU last year.  Not much maybe RU's win over Illinois was a bit better than SJU win over Nova.  But the ultimate difference was Rutgers beat Syracuse in a non-conference game.

UCONN beat USC in a non-conference game.

BIG difference from SJU's best non conference win which was probably Boston College.

Agreed Fordham, the only way for us to make sure we get in the tournament with this weak schedule is to win all of our OOC games beating Kansas and Indiana or winning the Big East Tournament Championship. If we don’t do either of those things our weak SOS will come back to haunt us. Like you said, we won 10 Big East games last year and it did nothing for us.

 

[mm52]

would it matter if our cupcakes wind up being better than other major schools' cupcakes?  I think a quad 4 victory against a team with a net in the 200s or 300s is treated the same

 

[lawmanfan]

Remember people talked about what the difference was with Rutgers and SJU last year.  Not much maybe RU's win over Illinois was a bit better than SJU win over Nova.  But the ultimate difference was Rutgers beat Syracuse in a non-conference game.

UCONN beat USC in a non-conference game.

BIG difference from SJU's best non conference win which was probably Boston College.

Agreed Fordham, the only way for us to make sure we get in the tournament with this weak schedule is to win all of our OOC games beating Kansas and Indiana or winning the Big East Tournament Championship. If we don’t do either of those things our weak SOS will come back to haunt us. Like you said, we won 10 Big East games last year and it did nothing for us.

 

So you don't think that going, say, 10-1 in non-conference play with a loss to what will be a top-5 Kansas team and 11-9 in the conference for an overall record of 21-10 and finishing in 4th place in the regular season would make SJU an NCAA team? 

Interesting, but I think wrong.

 

[NCJohnnie]

If we go 10-1 in OOC, including a road win against Indiana and losing only to Kansas, and finish 12-8 in the Big East (22-9 overall), the only way we don't get to dance is if the Big East gets destroyed in its OOC games.  Having said that, I'd like to see one more top 60 OOC opponent but schedule appears set. 

 

[austour]

I mean UCONN is playing in Atlantis.  Field is LOADED.  Now I don't understand the argument that SJU should be good this year so I don't mind playing a softer schedule?  What? So UCONN after getting back to the NCAA Tourney for the first time in years last year and generally projected to be the 2nd best team after Nova in the BE is a sucker for playing in such a high level tourney? Or is that how a big time basketball program is supposed to act like?

Remember how well that worked out in Mullin's last year?  That 12-0 non-conference did not help much as they barely snuck in as the last team in the field.  And that is because the non-conference schedule that year was weak even though SJU was projected to have it's best team up to that point under Mullin.  

The last thing I will say is this is SJU.  Why would they ever shy away from a difficult schedule even if the team was projected to be bad.  No look I have harped on this enough.  I will just say going forward SJU needs to be in a top tier pre-season tourney just about every year.

Celebrating its tenth year of elite collegiate tournament play, the 2021 Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis will include Arizona State, Auburn, Loyola Chicago, Michigan State, Syracuse, Connecticut, Virginia Commonwealth, and Baylor. 
 

Honest question.  Do you think STJ turned down a major exempt tourney invite so they could play Pitt in the Gotham Classic, or are they playing Pitt in the Gotham Classic because they didn't garner an invite to any of the major exempt tourneys?  I don't know the answer but I would hope they it's not the former even if they did it for the Champagnie brothers, especially given the way it worked out.

 

[fordham96]

I honestly don't know the answer to that it appears to be a conscious choice but this is 2 years in a row not playing in a major exempt tourney.  I look at Lavin's last 4 years and Mullin's first year.  Lavin's first year SJU was in the Great Alaska Shootout which by then was a second rate tourney and that decision was made by previous coaching staff.

Second year Pre-Season NIT.  3rd year, Charleston Classic.  4th year Barclay's Center Tourney, also played a top 10 Wisconsin team opening game in the Dakota's.  5th year Pre-season NIT where they beat Minnesota and lost to Gonzaga.  Mullin's 1st year they were in Maui.

I don't care how good or bad SJU is predicted to be I don't see the issue with being in one of these Tourney's.  

austour post=437383
Honest question.  Do you think STJ turned down a major exempt tourney invite so they could play Pitt in the Gotham Classic, or are they playing Pitt in the Gotham Classic because they didn't garner an invite to any of the major exempt tourneys?  I don't know the answer but I would hope they it's not the former even if they did it for the Champagnie brothers, especially given the way it worked out.
 

 

[fordham96]

Remember even under that scenario they cannot afford any slip ups, meaning no losses to outside top 100 teams which is no guarantee.  As evidenced by the fact last year they were 1 or 2 plays away from losing to BOTH St. Peter's  and Rider.  No room for error.  And SJU won both games and STILL did not get in.  If they had lost either let alone both it would have pushed them farther away.

My guess is 12-8 and beating Indiana while losing to Kansas would be enough but do we want them to just sneak in too?  And the IU game they will almost certainly be an underdog.  It would also depend on who they beat in the 12 league wins, would need to split at least against UCONN and Nova and maybe SHU and Xavier would need to be combined with a weak non-conference especially if they lose BOTH KU and IU games.  

lawmanfan post=437379

fordham96 post=437363
Remember people talked about what the difference was with Rutgers and SJU last year.  Not much maybe RU's win over Illinois was a bit better than SJU win over Nova.  But the ultimate difference was Rutgers beat Syracuse in a non-conference game.

UCONN beat USC in a non-conference game.

BIG difference from SJU's best non conference win which was probably Boston College.

So you don't think that going, say, 10-1 in non-conference play with a loss to what will be a top-5 Kansas team and 11-9 in the conference for an overall record of 21-10 and finishing in 4th place in the regular season would make SJU an NCAA team? 

Interesting, but I think wrong.

 

[lawmanfan]

Remember even under that scenario they cannot afford any slip ups, meaning no losses to outside top 100 teams which is no guarantee.  As evidenced by the fact last year they were 1 or 2 plays away from losing to BOTH St. Peter's  and Rider.  No room for error.  And SJU won both games and STILL did not get in.  If they had lost either let alone both it would have pushed them farther away.

My guess is 12-8 and beating Indiana while losing to Kansas would be enough but do we want them to just sneak in too?  And the IU game they will almost certainly be an underdog.  It would also depend on who they beat in the 12 league wins, would need to split at least against UCONN and Nova and maybe SHU and Xavier would need to be combined with a weak non-conference especially if they lose BOTH KU and IU games.  

lawmanfan post=437379

fordham96 post=437363
Remember people talked about what the difference was with Rutgers and SJU last year.  Not much maybe RU's win over Illinois was a bit better than SJU win over Nova.  But the ultimate difference was Rutgers beat Syracuse in a non-conference game.

UCONN beat USC in a non-conference game.

BIG difference from SJU's best non conference win which was probably Boston College.

So you don't think that going, say, 10-1 in non-conference play with a loss to what will be a top-5 Kansas team and 11-9 in the conference for an overall record of 21-10 and finishing in 4th place in the regular season would make SJU an NCAA team? 

Interesting, but I think wrong.
 

I agree with almost everything you've said on this thread including this.  The problem with the scenario I posed is that (a) there is little room for error; and (b) it doesn't do much for their seeding.  Of course both of those could be affected some by what they do in the BET but there's no sense in trying to figure that out in July.

It's mostly a case of that - sight unseen on this team - I am pessimistic about their chances in an early-season game against a good team.  I could be wrong (and I hope I am) - the talent level might be high enough or they could put it together quickly enough that they will be highly competitive out of the gate.

But if they aren't, I'm just not sure it's wise to trade a probable W against a Quad 3 or 4 team for a probable L against a Quad 1 team.  Not dogmatic about it, and I completely respect the contrary opinions, just my own lean on it.

I'd feel differently if we were talking about an OOC Quad 1 or 2 game in February instead of Nov/Dec.  IMHO they should jump at the chance to schedule that if they can.  And if we were talking about playing a bottom-third Big 10 or Big 12 team or whatever in addition to Indiana early in the season, that would be fine.

But I don't think the staff's scheduling decision (as it stands at the moment) is crazy.

 

[room112]

Just to clarify because I believe it was brought up here in the past. The coaching staff is NOT in charge of scheduling. It's the job of the AD correct?