NCAA Tournament seeding

thakid said:
thanks to chatGPT, I give you pitinos second round record analysis as a favorite:

Determining Rick Pitino’s exact second-round record as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament requires analyzing each of his tournament appearances, focusing on instances where his team was seeded higher than their opponent in the Round of 32. Here’s a breakdown:

Providence College (1985–1987):


• 1987: As a No. 6 seed, Providence defeated No. 11 seed UAB in the first round and then faced No. 3 seed Alabama in the second round. Providence won this game, but they were the lower seed, thus not the favorite.





University of Kentucky (1989–1997):


• 1992: No. 2 seed Kentucky defeated No. 15 seed Old Dominion in the first round and then faced No. 10 seed Iowa State in the second round, winning as the higher seed (favorite).


• 1993: No. 1 seed Kentucky defeated No. 16 seed Rider and then won against No. 9 seed Utah in the second round as the favorite.


• 1994: No. 3 seed Kentucky defeated No. 14 seed Tennessee State but lost to No. 6 seed Marquette in the second round, where they were the favorite.


• 1995: No. 1 seed Kentucky won against No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s and then defeated No. 9 seed Tulane in the second round as the favorite.


• 1996: No. 1 seed Kentucky defeated No. 16 seed San Jose State and then won against No. 9 seed Virginia Tech in the second round as the favorite.


• 1997: No. 1 seed Kentucky defeated No. 16 seed Montana and then won against No. 9 seed Iowa in the second round as the favorite.


University of Louisville (2001–2017):


• 2003: No. 4 seed Louisville defeated No. 13 seed Austin Peay but lost to No. 5 seed Butler in the second round, where they were the favorite.


• 2005: No. 4 seed Louisville defeated No. 13 seed Louisiana-Lafayette and then won against No. 5 seed Georgia Tech in the second round as the favorite.


• 2008: No. 3 seed Louisville defeated No. 14 seed Boise State and then won against No. 6 seed Oklahoma in the second round as the favorite.


• 2009: No. 1 seed Louisville defeated No. 16 seed Morehead State and then won against No. 9 seed Siena in the second round as the favorite.


• 2012: No. 4 seed Louisville defeated No. 13 seed Davidson and then won against No. 5 seed New Mexico in the second round as the favorite.


• 2013: No. 1 seed Louisville defeated No. 16 seed North Carolina A&T and then won against No. 8 seed Colorado State in the second round as the favorite.


• 2014: No. 4 seed Louisville defeated No. 13 seed Manhattan and then won against No. 5 seed Saint Louis in the second round as the favorite.


• 2015: No. 4 seed Louisville defeated No. 13 seed UC Irvine and then won against No. 5 seed Northern Iowa in the second round as the favorite.


• 2017: No. 2 seed Louisville defeated No. 15 seed Jacksonville State but lost to No. 7 seed Michigan in the second round, where they were the favorite.





Iona College (2020–2023):


• 2021: No. 15 seed Iona lost to No. 2 seed Alabama in the first round.


• 2023: No. 13 seed Iona lost to No. 4 seed UConn in the first round.





St. John’s University (2023–Present):


• 2025: As a No. 2 seed, St. John’s is scheduled to face No. 15 seed Omaha in the first round. If they advance, they will likely be the favorite in the second round.





Summary of Second-Round Games as a Favorite:


• Wins: 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 (12 wins)


• Losses: 1994, 2003, 2017 (3 losses)





Overall Second-Round Record as a Favorite: 12-3


Therefore, Rick Pitino’s record in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, when his team was the higher seed and thus the favorite, stands at 12 wins and 3 losses.
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So thekidpom give us an 80% chance of winning
 
Jack Williams said:
I’m with LMF on this one. Our draw sucks. It doesn’t mean we can’t or won’t go in there and run the table, but it makes me angry seeing other two seeds get 7/10s like UCLA/Utah St to accompany them and we get two teams with tons of talent and athleticism that have under achieved this season.

I hate the underachieving power teams like Kansas/Arkansas their talent is elite and they will be locked in to flush their mediocre regular season with a good 2-3 weeks of basketball. I watched Kansas play @houston like 2 weeks ago and it was a close one that went down to the wire and I immediately thought about how I didn’t want them near us as a second round opponent. Oh well

To me with this draw, making the sweet 16 would be awesome. I don’t really concern myself with the matchups beyond that point, because this is March madness and those teams will have to dodge upset bids as well. It is survive and advance time
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I can understand that, but knew we'd get some marquee opponents on our way to the final four.

Deep down, I thought they'd pit us against Gonzaga in week two - kind of surprised they got an eight, not surprised they are up against Georgia (who I think is overrated). They'll moonwalk to the second round.

In my eyes, it was one of these teams, or the Zags...

You know the committee likes their story lines.
 
Anecdotally, highly ranked preseason teams that underperform during the regular season seem to perform better in the tournament than similarly seeded teams. Self might have phoned it in this time last year but Kansas has 4 seniors in their starting lineup that aren't going to mail this one in. Kansas players also have a ton of experience playing and winning in the NCAA Tournament if that matters for anything.

A 2nd round matchup with Kansas and we're favs by less than 3. Against Arkansas the spread is probably closer to 5.
 
dk423 said:
Bubba Cunningham is probably worth tens of millions of dollars. Do you really think he'd want to risk his professional standing for 100k+?
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But the real issue to me, which I haven't seen mentioned, is that even if Bubba refused himself from the process when UNC was being discussed, it's likely that his colleagues in the room would not feel comfortable excluding them and then having to break the bad news to him, or even better, did their buddy a favor. There is also money that goes to the school for the selection.
 
room112 said:
But the real issue to me, which I haven't seen mentioned, is that even if Bubba refused himself from the process when UNC was being discussed, it's likely that his colleagues in the room would not feel comfortable excluding them and then having to break the bad news to him, or even better, did their buddy a favor. There is also money that goes to the school for the selection.
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I think we need to completely overhaul how we select teams. Representatives from conferences/ADs who have a lot of things to do and can't watch basketball all day doesn't make any sense to me. Let alone what you're mentioning. Put some nerds in there, former scouts, former coaches, and publish all of the algorithms for the metrics.

But I do not think a guy as successful as Bubba is going to put his professional career on the line for 100k + to get a mediocre UNC team that's going nowhere. He's got a lot of bigger fish to fry
 
dk423 said:
I think we need to completely overhaul how we select teams. Representatives from conferences/ADs who have a lot of things to do and can't watch basketball all day doesn't make any sense to me. Let alone what you're mentioning. Put some nerds in there, former scouts, former coaches, and publish all of the algorithms for the metrics.

But I do not think a guy as successful as Bubba is going to put his professional career on the line for 100k + to get a mediocre UNC team that's going nowhere. He's got a lot of bigger fish to fry
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100k? That’s his bonus. The bid means a lot more to UNC than 100k.
 
sjc88 said:
100k? That’s his bonus. The bid means a lot more to UNC than 100k.
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Does it? UNC making it counts as one unit. Each unit, for last year, was 342k each. Maybe, at most, they get two units. 700k. ACC distributes the units equally in their conference, so divided by 18, that would be about $40,000 going to UNC. UNC's athletic budget and revenues are both around 140 million dollars.

You think Bubba is, again, putting all of this at stake for that? Or what, for fans to watch RJ Davis disappoint them again for 40 minutes?

I think the process is flawed. But the corruption stuff just doesn't add up.
 
Would you rather:
Be in the West region playing Omaha and then Arkansas or Kansas, then Texas Tech/Drake/Missouri

or

Be in the East region playing Montana, and then BYU or VCU, then Alabama/St. Mary's/Vanderbilt
 
dk423 said:
Does it? UNC making it counts as one unit. Each unit, for last year, was 342k each. Maybe, at most, they get two units. 700k. ACC distributes the units equally in their conference, so divided by 18, that would be about $40,000 going to UNC. UNC's athletic budget and revenues are both around 140 million dollars.

You think Bubba is, again, putting all of this at stake for that? Or what, for fans to watch RJ Davis disappoint them again for 40 minutes?

I think the process is flawed. But the corruption stuff just doesn't add up.
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I know he is not a lawyer or judge but there's a concept of avoiding even the appearance of a conflict. Since NC was clearly not worthy, they could have picked another team equally as worthy/not worthy to take that spot, to avoid the obvious questions. But, they didn't. Why? Reputaiton? Or maybe it was that the old coots cabal figured it doesn't matter anyway so why not get our bud his dough? I don't know. Just looks VERY bad on top of everything else, and was so easily avoided. As one of my early career mentors used to say "Don't go to the mat for sh%$". That is what it appears was done. Why?
 
Bubba also has another 225k tied to performance.


I am not pushing the “corruption” narrative but it is beyond naive not to think the “brand” is not being valued more than straight W’s and L’s. If UNC is giving a 100k to make the Tournament then they are making more than that. Hell you don’t think them being able to say we were in the Tournament to facilitate more NIL?

Go check out what Dickie V said. “Don’t you have to win some of those Q1 wins?” He said it, not me. No bigger ACC defender than Dick.
 
redmanwest said:
I know he is not a lawyer or judge but there's a concept of avoiding even the appearance of a conflict. Since NC was clearly not worthy, they could have picked another team equally as worthy/not worthy to take that spot, to avoid the obvious questions. But, they didn't. Why? Reputaiton? Or maybe it was that the old coots cabal figured it doesn't matter anyway so why not get our bud his dough? I don't know. Just looks VERY bad on top of everything else, and was so easily avoided. As one of my early career mentors used to say "Don't go to the mat for sh%$". That is what it appears was done. Why?
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There's plausible basketball reasons UNC to be chosen. KenPom is 33, BPI is 25. It's not like they have DePaul's resume.

sjc88 said:
Bubba also has another 225k tied to performance.


I am not pushing the “corruption” narrative but it is beyond naive not to think the “brand” is not being valued more than straight W’s and L’s. If UNC is giving a 100k to make the Tournament then they are making more than that. Hell you don’t think them being able to say we were in the Tournament to facilitate more NIL?

Go check out what Dickie V said. “Don’t you have to win some of those Q1 wins?” He said it, not me. No bigger ACC defender than Dick.
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UNC's brand is 99% why I think they got in. That's very different than thinking Bubba actually did something.
 
How much of an advantage crowd wise do we think we’ll get with

A: a 945 tip on a thursday

B: going up with Kansas fan base on Saturday
 
Amaseinyourface said:
How much of an advantage crowd wise do we think we’ll get with

A: a 945 tip on a thursday

B: going up with Kansas fan base on Saturday
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Kansas usually travels well but in watching some of their games they don’t seem invested in this team. How you feel about Arkansas? I think they might beat Kansas.
 
sjc88 said:
Kansas usually travels well but in watching some of their games they don’t seem invested in this team. How you feel about Arkansas? I think they might beat Kansas.
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From a ticket perspective, it is much better if Arkansas wins. Like the majority of the SEC, it is still a football school and does not have as much passion for hoops as Kansas.
 
Amaseinyourface said:
I’d rather face Arkansas, but think Kansas will win
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For some reason I am more nervous about the unknown. Boogie Fland might be back but I haven’t paid much attention to them. Kansas? I think we suffocate them. I’ve seen them look terrible a few times.

Honestly, we “should” beat both.

No one mention we beat Arkansas in our 1985 run. So there’s that. 😂
 
sjc88 said:
For some reason I am more nervous about the unknown. Boogie Fland might be back but I haven’t paid much attention to them. Kansas? I think we suffocate them. I’ve seen them look terrible a few times.

Honestly, we “should” beat both.
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BYU scared the crap out of me, so I'm relieved they aren't on our side in a potential Round 2.
 
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