Zach's Big East Summer Power Ratings

M

MarkRedman

Well-known member
Here they are:

1. Villanova
2. Seton Hall
3. Georgetown
4. Xavier
5. Providence
6. Marquette
7. Creighton
8. Butler
9. St John's
10. DePaul

I think Zach's gonna be eating some crow next winter
 
[quote="MarkRedman" post=352411]Here they are:

1. Villanova
2. Seton Hall
3. Georgetown
4. Xavier
5. Providence
6. Marquette
7. Creighton
8. Butler
9. St John's
10. DePaul

I think Zach's gonna be eating some crow next winter[/quote]
He did say that as roster now stands, without a PG w any experience.
 
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Rankings seem pretty fair tbh. They can change if we're able to replace Ponds.
 
[quote="Paultzman" post=352412][quote="MarkRedman" post=352411]Here they are:

1. Villanova
2. Seton Hall
3. Georgetown
4. Xavier
5. Providence
6. Marquette
7. Creighton
8. Butler
9. St John's
10. DePaul

I think Zach's gonna be eating some crow next winter[/quote]
He did that as roster now stands, without a PG w any experience.[/quote]

Understood but I really think that we are better than 9th right now
 
[quote="MarkRedman" post=352415][quote="Paultzman" post=352412][quote="MarkRedman" post=352411]Here they are:

1. Villanova
2. Seton Hall
3. Georgetown
4. Xavier
5. Providence
6. Marquette
7. Creighton
8. Butler
9. St John's
10. DePaul

I think Zach's gonna be eating some crow next winter[/quote]
He did that as roster now stands, without a PG w any experience.[/quote]

Understood but I really think that we are better than 9th right now[/quote]
We were seventh last year with a better roster and BE may be tougher with a lot of returnees. I hope your optimism is a good predictor, but I would be happy to just see Anderson avoid a losing record this season.
 
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[quote="MarkRedman" post=352411]Here they are:

1. Villanova
2. Seton Hall
3. Georgetown
4. Xavier
5. Providence
6. Marquette
7. Creighton
8. Butler
9. St John's
10. DePaul

I think Zach's gonna be eating some crow next winter[/quote]

Interesting. 9th feels fair for SJU as things stand now but a competent, experienced PG could be a game changer. I can see us fighting our way onto the bubble with the right addition.

Does anyone else feel like Hall is overrated? I think they'll be fine but I don't get the amount of love they're getting. I know they return almost everyone but last year they were considered a surprise team. I think they were the beneficiary of a weak Big East more so than this is a great team. I don't think they make as big of a leap as some think. Powell is a winner but Cale, Sandro, McKnight...does anyone feel like those guys are dependable when Powell is in foul trouble, injured or having a bad night? Not me. That being said I know they're adding a big shot blocker and if Powell comes back even better then maybe I eat my words here...
 
[quote="Paultzman" post=352416][quote="MarkRedman" post=352415][quote="Paultzman" post=352412][quote="MarkRedman" post=352411]Here they are:

1. Villanova
2. Seton Hall
3. Georgetown
4. Xavier
5. Providence
6. Marquette
7. Creighton
8. Butler
9. St John's
10. DePaul

I think Zach's gonna be eating some crow next winter[/quote]
He did that as roster now stands, without a PG w any experience.[/quote]

Understood but I really think that we are better than 9th right now[/quote]
We were seventh last year with a better roster and BE may be tougher with a lot of returnees. I hope your optimism is a good predictor, but I would be happy to just see Anderson avoid a losing record this season.[/quote]

We had a better roster last year but will have much better coaching next year
CMA has never had a losing season in 17 years as a head coach
Next year will not be his first!!
 
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The rankings are correct at this point and time. Maybe if we add another big guy and an experienced Pg and are able to play 10+ deep with a ferocious style of ball, we can change that. As of now, I don’t disagree totally although I might have put us 7th. I’d rather pleasantly surprise anyway.
 
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[quote="Adam" post=352413]Rankings seem pretty fair tbh. They can change if we're able to replace Ponds.[/quote]

Exactly, as long as the find the pre-season BE POY in the seat cushions then they'll be good.
 
[quote="MarkRedman" post=352418][quote="Paultzman" post=352416][quote="MarkRedman" post=352415][quote="Paultzman" post=352412][quote="MarkRedman" post=352411]Here they are:

1. Villanova
2. Seton Hall
3. Georgetown
4. Xavier
5. Providence
6. Marquette
7. Creighton
8. Butler
9. St John's
10. DePaul

I think Zach's gonna be eating some crow next winter[/quote]
He did that as roster now stands, without a PG w any experience.[/quote]

Understood but I really think that we are better than 9th right now[/quote]
We were seventh last year with a better roster and BE may be tougher with a lot of returnees. I hope your optimism is a good predictor, but I would be happy to just see Anderson avoid a losing record this season.[/quote]

We had a better roster last year but will have much better coaching next year
CMA has never had a losing season in 17 years as a head coach
Next year will not be his first!![/quote]

Yes but he's had a losing conference record four times including his first years at both his power schools. The situation is not ripe for an immediate turnaround and that won't be a reflection on the staff.
 
[quote="austour" post=352430][quote="Adam" post=352413]Rankings seem pretty fair tbh. They can change if we're able to replace Ponds.[/quote]

Exactly, as long as the find the pre-season BE POY in the seat cushions then they'll be good.[/quote]

Lol, well if we had Ponds then we'd be top half of the league. As it stands I think #8 or #9 is a good projection, but with a solid PG then we could move up to #6 or #7 (the bubble).
 
[quote="Paultzman" post=352416][quote="MarkRedman" post=352415][quote="Paultzman" post=352412][quote="MarkRedman" post=352411]Here they are:

1. Villanova
2. Seton Hall
3. Georgetown
4. Xavier
5. Providence
6. Marquette
7. Creighton
8. Butler
9. St John's
10. DePaul

I think Zach's gonna be eating some crow next winter[/quote]
He did that as roster now stands, without a PG w any experience.[/quote]

Understood but I really think that we are better than 9th right now[/quote]
We were seventh last year with a better roster and BE may be tougher with a lot of returnees. I hope your optimism is a good predictor, but I would be happy to just see Anderson avoid a losing record this season.[/quote]

Agree Paultz, especially seeing as simply doing that would represent positive momentum and avoidance of complete rebuild.

Couple of things I think could tip the scales:

1. Heron was very good last year but rarely seemed completely comfortable. Heron and Ponds infrequently went off in same game. Not atypical for a junior two years established at a program and another junior that is new - both alphas - to not entirely gel, through no fault of anyone's. Does Heron step forward and become a true #1, All-Big East level performer? Plausible and if he does that changes next year's team's upside materially.

2. Sort of on the other side of that coin, how does rest of roster deal without having Ponds drawing so much attention? Obviously not a tremendous amount of production returning, but if LJ is able to maintain the supreme production from last year - let alone improve - as he moves further into the spotlight that also changes the upside considerably.

3. What is defensive impact of losing Simon? Easy answer there would be that team will play completely different style defensively. While true, not sure that neutralizes losing the anchor of what (besides LJ) was a pretty bad defensive team. Been a while since SJU had best defensive player in the conference who did so many little things to cover up for so many glaring weaknesses, never mind that there might not be a player on last year's roster more well-suited for CMA's system, compounding Simon's departure.

In any event, point is last year's squad needed a tremendous amount of improvement defensively WITH Simon, and without there is really going to have to be a 180 that is unlikely to be exclusively system driven. If they can do so, even incrementally, should result in extra Ws over whatever the expected baseline, because so many Ws were left on the board last year due to ineffective defense.

After conference play started we let teams over 75 twelve times (including plenty in the 80s and 90s). No coincidence we were 1-11 in those games, representing all but 1 pre-NCAA loss the entire season. Tells a lot of the story from last year.
 
With the experienced PG in place now, I feel a lot better that we can be competitive with the top half of the league. Ponds was an explosive scorer for us and did a lot of other good things including rebounding but I think the loss of Simon will be more impactful unless some big time defensive stopper emerges. Overall great defense will not fill that gap completely. You need a guy who can lock down. We won't need him to be as versatile as Simon simply because we have some more size but we will need a guy or two that can shut down opposing guards. Simon was as good as anyone in the country at that and that is tough to replace. The scoring and rebounding can be met and rebounding can improve. We'll probably exceed the steals and blocks based upon our personnel and CMA history.
 
[quote="SJU1512" post=352502][quote="Paultzman" post=352416][quote="MarkRedman" post=352415][quote="Paultzman" post=352412][quote="MarkRedman" post=352411]Here they are:

1. Villanova
2. Seton Hall
3. Georgetown
4. Xavier
5. Providence
6. Marquette
7. Creighton
8. Butler
9. St John's
10. DePaul

I think Zach's gonna be eating some crow next winter[/quote]
He did that as roster now stands, without a PG w any experience.[/quote]

Understood but I really think that we are better than 9th right now[/quote]
We were seventh last year with a better roster and BE may be tougher with a lot of returnees. I hope your optimism is a good predictor, but I would be happy to just see Anderson avoid a losing record this season.[/quote]

Agree Paultz, especially seeing as simply doing that would represent positive momentum and avoidance of complete rebuild.

Couple of things I think could tip the scales:

1. Heron was very good last year but rarely seemed completely comfortable. Heron and Ponds infrequently went off in same game. Not atypical for a junior two years established at a program and another junior that is new - both alphas - to not entirely gel, through no fault of anyone's. Does Heron step forward and become a true #1, All-Big East level performer? Plausible and if he does that changes next year's team's upside materially.

2. Sort of on the other side of that coin, how does rest of roster deal without having Ponds drawing so much attention? Obviously not a tremendous amount of production returning, but if LJ is able to maintain the supreme production from last year - let alone improve - as he moves further into the spotlight that also changes the upside considerably.

3. What is defensive impact of losing Simon? Easy answer there would be that team will play completely different style defensively. While true, not sure that neutralizes losing the anchor of what (besides LJ) was a pretty bad defensive team. Been a while since SJU had best defensive player in the conference who did so many little things to cover up for so many glaring weaknesses, never mind that there might not be a player on last year's roster more well-suited for CMA's system, compounding Simon's departure.

In any event, point is last year's squad needed a tremendous amount of improvement defensively WITH Simon, and without there is really going to have to be a 180 that is unlikely to be exclusively system driven. If they can do so, even incrementally, should result in extra Ws over whatever the expected baseline, because so many Ws were left on the board last year due to ineffective defense.

After conference play started we let teams over 75 twelve times (including plenty in the 80s and 90s). No coincidence we were 1-11 in those games, representing all but 1 pre-NCAA loss the entire season. Tells a lot of the story from last year.[/quote]

Agree with your analysis on Heron and LJ and I hope that they both thrive this year. Yes, Simon was a great defender, but we played horrible team defense last year. Good defense requires all 5 guys to play hard and work together, we did not do that. For that reason I think/hope that we are much better defensive team going forward.

My hope is Heron becomes more comfortable and thrives this year. agree with your analysis and think that's plausible.
 
At the risk of excoriation, I believe that we should see a pretty significant "addition by subtraction" effect on 2 levels:

Coaching. The impact of replacing CM and staff with a professional college coach with a system can't be overstated. Defining roles, implementing a plan, putting players at traditional basketball positions, emphasizing defense and rebounding, etc. will all lead to a more balanced and coherent approach that, I believe, will yield results and could be the difference in several wins.

Ponds. For a few games, he was vying for POY in the conference, but that quickly dissipated to what I saw as indifference and a poorly conceived and inexplicable approach to de-emphasize his scoring in first halves (scoring next to no points, or even trying to). Maybe he was playing hurt, but still, I saw no "fire in the belly". I think as Figgy and Heron take the reins, without having to defer to Ponds, they will emerge as one of the conference's leading duos, very hard to match. That, with the emergence of a few of the Sophs/transfers will, I hope yield positive results.


But, the proof will be in the pudding and 9th may turn out to be the right spot. But, I think we will be competitive and finish better than 9th.
 
I think once BE games start, the defense will gel, and the offense will have a better feel for each other.
 
I don't expect us to do better than 8th at absolute best since we lost a ton of talent/experience including our best player. Other programs seem to be able to compete immediately even after losing a ton (see Seton Hall), however we have not yet proven to be capable of that. We all hope that changes with this new staff. The conference this year is just way too tough and the only teams I can see us possibly beating are Butler, DePaul, and maybe Creighton if they aren't hot from 3. Maybe we finally found a staff that can bring stability and get gritty kids who are not just trying to audition for the NBA who won't mind staying 3-4 years. I stand by my prediction that Seton Hall will not come close to top 10 in the country when it's all said and done even before the BET. I think they are solid but not that scary...remember they were quite lucky winning tons of very tight games including ours which was bogus. It will be interesting to see if they take a big step back after losing Powell. I still think Willard has had several studs who have made him look like a much better coach than he is i.e. Whitehead, Powell, Delgado, etc. It's not like they dominated anything last year.

Just looked at SHU's schedule from last year and in 14 of their first 20 games Powell was the leading scorer including games with 40, 30, 31, and a few 28 pt games. IMO that's one player carrying his team. He scored 30+ points in 3 of the last 6 games. I know some will say to give Willard the credit, but let's see what happens when the guy carrying the scoring load is gone. Once he leaves if SHU is still solid to good, I will give Willard his due.
 
We did lose a lot in Ponds and Simon. But college basketball always seems to be a senior driven success. We will have 3 'seniors' in Heron, LJ and Rutherford. Two being very important offensive weapons we know first hand.

Things can still shake out but I think the team is better than DePaul and Butler as Carino said. After that who the heck knows.

As others have mentioned we need a consistent 3rd option and to be honest a 4th as well. Not to oversimplify but we should be trying to replace approx 40 ppg (Ponds 20, Simon and Clark 10). Well more I type this the more I'm not sure actually haha
 
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